Medvedev and the "Belarusian Circus"

For Global Voices Online: A picture says more than a thousand words, the saying goes. An Instagram snapshot that the Russian PM Dmitry Medvedev tweeted as a tacit comment to his visit to Minsk sure does: the "Belarusian Circus." 

During Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev's visit to Minsk on Wednesday, July 18, he tweeted [ru] an Instagram snapshot with the comment: "In the streets of Minsk." The problem with the picture is that it portrayed the Belarusian State Circus, which could be interpreted as a tacit comment on Medvedev's meeting with the Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko and senior state officials. 

 Medvedev's visit to Minsk was no courtesy visit. A recent smuggling scandal has aroused much anger in Moscow, and Medvedev used the meeting to bring Lukashenko to account for the export of chemical solvents produced from the Russian supplies of duty-free oil. Another item on the agenda, according to RIA Novosti [ru], was the recent intrusion into Belarusian airspace by a Swedish plane dropping teddy bears with anti-Lukashenko slogans. The bear incident was a major embarrassment for Belarus in view of the two countries' joint air defence system. As a consequence, a student [ru] who published a photostory about the bears, and a 16-year-old girl [ru], who allegedly took a photo of one of the bears, got arrested by the KGB.  

Then, how did social media react to the "Belarusian circus"? Twitter user @minssk united [ru] the two themes of the circus and the teddies:

Медведев прилетел в Минск, сфоткал цирк. До этого прилетали медведи, тот ещё цирк был, но с фотографом там не хорошая история получилась.

Medvedev flew to Minsk and photographed a circus. Before this, bears flew in, which was quite a circus too, but the story with the [detained] photographer wasn't good.

Some, like @Dubovnik_Dmitry, turned to sarcasm [ru] when commenting:

Медведев отметил минский цирк твитом:-) видно для того чтобы подчекнуть куда он приехал.

Medvedev mentioned the Minsk circus in a tweet:-) obviously to underline what kind of place he had come to.

Twitter user @daphnis_nerii assumed [ru] a more ironic tone:

Информационные порталы страны разместили новость о том, что Медведев сфоткал цирк. Что было бы, если б он в Беларуси в туалет сходил?

Information portals spread the news that Medvedev photographed a circus. How would it have been if he had gone to the toilet in Belarus?

Still, as Twitter user @yurok1521 asked [ru], the question on everyone's lips is this:

Медведев намекнул на «цирк» в правительстве Беларуси?

Did Medvedev hint that there is "a circus" in the government of Belarus?

What Medvedev's intention with the tweet was, only he knows, but if it was a joke, it testifies to a certain sense of humour of the former Russian president with the nickname 'iPhonchik'.

Belarus Beyond Bomb or Blast

For Global Voices: Even before the smoke from Monday's Minsk Metro blast dispersed, the dual question of: "What is to be done? - Who is to blame?" arose in the Belarusian blogosphere. Two major strands of thought dominate, blaming either President Lukashenko or the political opposition, although a deeper sentiment of sympathy for the victims seems to unite the people of Minsk.

The Monday explosion in a subway station in Belarus capital Minsk is undoubtedly the largest act of violence in Belarus since World War II, leaving tens dead and some hundred injured. Understandably, people in the usually tranquil country reacted with both loathing and anguish, perhaps as a premonition of a shattered social fabric. Still, initial reactions from the blogosphere largely grasped at the question of who was to blame.

Although oppositional voices vary in passing the blame on Lukashenko and his regime, the overall impression is that this is what such a repressive system produces, by mechanisms of defunct societal interaction. LJ user svobodoff, for example, thinks that [ru] "the explosion has covered the regime in blood":

Такого кошмара люди в относительно спокойной когда-то Белоруссии от режима Лукашенко ещё не ожидали. Последние несколько лет существования диктатуры преподносили много неприятных "сюрпризов" для миролюбивых белорусов, но никто не думал, что это может зайти так далеко.

"Such a nightmare, the people of the previously relatively peaceful Belarus had not expected from Lukashenko's regime. The last few years of the dictatorship's existence have heralded many unpleasant "surprises" for peace-loving Belarusans, but nobody thought that it would go this far."

Bloggers loyal to the regime reacted with vehemence against any attempts to pin the blame on the Lukashenko regime, as LJ user lyavon did [ru]:

Не успел рассеяться дым от взрыва, как в интернете словно по команде появились сотни постов с обвинениями в адрес властей... авторам уже все ясно - виноват опять президент. Злобная Петра на минскбае, засучив рукава, банит всех, кто пытается высказать мнение, отличающееся от утвержденного из Вашингтона. Просто п[---]ц, у этих свиней нет никакой совести... Люди! Одумайтесь!!! Нельзя так бесстыдно использовать чужие страдания!!!

зы: судя по всему, это попытка разыграть египетский сценарий... сейчас будут призывать идти на плошчу и тд и тп...

"The smoke from the explosion had not even settled, before hundreds of posts, as if by command, appeared on the Internet with accusations directed towards the government... For the authors, everything was already clear - the president is once again to blame. Like a vicious Peter on Minskby [Minsk web community], with sleeves rolled up, banning everyone, who tries to express an opinion, which diverts from the one stipulated by Washington. It is simply **** that these swines have no conscience... People! Come to your senses!!! One should not so shamelessly exploit others' misery!!!

P.S. By all apperances, this is an attempt to unfold an Egyptian scenario... Now they will urge [us] to take to the square and so on..."

But there are also reactions against the polarization of interpretations. Thus, LJ user khatskevich writes [ru]:

Вчера произошло два ужасных события. Теракт и реакция на него. Страшно подумать – буквально не успели кровь смыть, как в блогах и твиттере прогрессивная общественность уже стала делать выводы и бросать обвинения. Оппозиция винила власть и белорусские спецслужбы, лоялисты винили оппозицию и зарубежные спецслужбы. Смешалось в кучу всё – доллары, сахар, Ливия – всё, что могло послужить хоть каким-то обоснованием пропаганды. [...] Лично мне кажется, что все эти домыслы и взаимные обвинения похожи на то, как если бы блогеры сбегали на Октябрьскую, перемазались в крови жертв, и стали бы кричать всякие лозунги, типа «это кровь жертв режима!» или «эту кровь пролили отморозки из пятой колонны» [...]. Люди, вам не стыдно? Да, мы по разные стороны политических баррикад. Но разве это повод уподобляться всякой нелюди и устраивать пиар своих идей на крови жертв теракта? Мы что, не в состоянии отбросить идеологические противоречия в эти страшные дни и просто побыть людьми?

"Yesterday, two terrible events occured. The terror act and the reaction to it. It is awful to think, but the blood had literally not been washed away before the progressive public already began to draw conclusions and make accusations. The opposition blamed the government and Belarusian special services, the loyalists blamed the opposition and foreign special services. Everything was mixed up in a nice heap - dollars, sugar, Libya - everything that could serve as any basis for propaganda. [...] Personally, I think that all these speculations and mutual accusations are as if bloggers ran down to Oktyabrskaya, smeared with the blood of the victims, and began to call out such type of slogans as "this is the blood of the regime's victims!" or "this blood was shed by the thugs of the fifth column" [...] People, are you not ashamed of yourselves? Yes, we may stand on opposite sides of the political barricades. But is this really a reason to characterize everyone as inhumane and make PR for your ideas by the blood of an act of terror? Are we not able to set aside ideological contradictions during these terrible days and simply be people?"

By the end of the day, perhaps some of the last sentiments may prove closest to the truth. It seems that people are simply fed up with the classical duality of "What is to be done? - Who is to blame?" when things go wrong. What this means for Belarus, only the future can tell, but at least it may be a sign of fatigue from the polarized divide between repression and resistance in the country.

Minsk Opposition Rally Gathers 15,000

This Sunday saw the biggest opposition demonstrations in Minsk since the April protests against the presidential elections last year, prolonging Lukashenka's rule over Belarus. An estimated 15,000 demonstrators gathered in front of the Academy of Sciences to listen to Alyaksandr Milinkevich and other opposition leaders, in commemoration of the first shortlived Belarusian National Republic of 1918.

This time, authorities used milder methods to thwart the demonstrations than the violence seen last year. Thus, some 50 opposition activists throughout Belarus had been arrested prior to the rally, in order to complicate its organisation. The march was also led away from the city centre, and police repeatedly urged people to dissolve the "illegal demonstration." Furthermore, the Lukashenka regime had staged a number of concerts to draw attention away from the opposition rally.

Demonstrations must be seen as a test of oppositional strength and resilience. The opposition has for long been torn by internal struggles and conflicts, which has been skilfully exploited by the Lukashenka regime. With increasingly strained relations to Moscow, Lukashenka has recently signalled rapprochement and dialogue with the West, and here the predominantly western-oriented opposition is once again seen as an obstacle to the president's plans.

Speaking at the rally, former presidential candidate, Alyaksandr Milinkevich, called for political freedom and for the long-term inclusion of Belarus into the European Union. Referring to the international isolation of the Lukashenka regime, Milinkevich said: "We should understand that we are not alone. The democratic world and Europe stand together with us."

As a token of oppositional unity, the demonstration must be seen as a great success. Still, the opposition coalition remains fundamentally divided, and Alyaksandr Kozulin, who came second in last year's presidential elections, is currently serving a 5 1/2 year prision sentence for his political activities. So, as Milinkevich called out to the masses that "We are the majority! We will win!" it is questionable if this is enough to overthrow the Lukashenka regime. As long as the opposition remains divided, majority is not the issue - unity is.

Lukashenko No Rocket Scientist

Yesterday, a Russian space rocket carrying 18 satellites crashed shortly after takeoff from Baikonur spacebase in Kazakhstan, as reported by international media. The accident presents a serious setback for Belarus new and proud space-programme. The rocket was carrying Belka - Belarus' first to be human-made object in space. As it now appears, this dream was never realised.

Since Kazakhstan became independent in 1991, Russia has kept on to its spacebase in Baikonur by a bilateral lease agreement, which runs until 2050. Baikonur has since been used as a launching-pad for numerous satellites, mainly for commercial purposes. One pleasant twist to activities at the spacebase is that Russia uses converted intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) for these peaceful purposes, thus literally turning swords into ploughshares. Working on a commercial basis, Baikonur has also allowed other countries to enter the space age, as should have become the case also for Belarus on Wednesday.

Thus, it was with great pride that Belarus president Alyaksandr Lukashenka yesterday stood watching how the country's first satellite took off from Baikonur space-centre in Kazakhstan. As the rocket rose to the skies, it was to become a short-lived joy for Lukashenka. But 86 seconds after take-off, the rocket started twirling to the ground to eventually explode in a burst of fire. Regretfully, no media reported Lukashenka's reaction to the crash. Let us however assume that it would not have been his one and a half minute of glory.

Of course, had Lukashenka himself been a rocket-scientist, the accident would never have happened. One cannot but pause to wonder, why this very gifted man does not master also rocket science, but perhaps not even Lukashenka can be omnipotent. Therefore, someone else has to take the blame for failure. Yesterday, Belarus opposition leader Milinkevich was arrested by police. It will be interesting to see whether he will be charged for sabotaging Belarus glorious space programme. After all, the motto of the regime is: "Together towards a strong and prosperous Belarus!" Then some insignificant little opposition leader should not be allowed to sabotage Belarus' glorious and bright future under the wise leadership of president Lukashenka. Or should he?

Belarus Opposition Leader Sentenced to Jail

Today, a court in Minsk sentenced Belarus opposition leader and former presidential candidate Alyaksandr Kozulin to five and a half years' imprisonment, according to his wife. Kozulin was charged with organising protests in March against the reelection of Alyaksandr Lukashenka as president of Belarus. Lukashenka received some 83% of votes, which provoked widespread public protests and demonstrations.

The now sentenced Kozulin remains somewhat of an enigma to most analysts. In contrast to the other presidential candidate, Alyaksandr Milinkevich, Kozulin unexpectedly appeared as a candidate at a late stage of the runup to the March elections. His populism and provocative slandering of president Lukashenka was something new to Belarus politics. Many also wondered why he was allowed to attack the president on state TV, which is strictly controlled by the regime.

The initial assumption was that the regime had Kozulin run for the presidency in order to split the opposition. A more likely explanation is that he was Moscow's man. Accordingly, Russia would have used Kozulin to replace the increasingly difficult Lukashenka. Such assumptions are supported by an apparent power struggle within the regime in connection to the elections.

Thus, it seems that Lukashenka might just have averted being ousted from office by political forces allied with Moscow. His disappearance from the public after elections and the postponement of the presidential inauguration are further circumstantial evidence of a power struggle. That Belarus authorities now crack down so hard on Kozulin would serve as the final confirmation of the Russian connection. However, as is often the case with authoritarian regimes, one should be careful with taking rumours for granted. What is obvious is the increasing desperation of the Lukashenka regime to hold on to its grip on power.

Belarus: The Galina Rodionovna Mystery

On account of a recent dicussion at Tobias Ljungvall on Belarus, more questions must obviously be raised about Galina Rodionovna - wife of Belarus president Lukashenka. Who is she - this first lady of Belarus? Few seem to know, why the question all the more deserves an answer. Who can solve the mystery of Galina Rodionovna - Belarus' secretive presidential wife?

As previously discussed, Lukashenka's wife, Galina Rodionovna, has for long been out of public view in Belarus. She still lives in the rural town of Shklov, where Lukashenka once led a collective farm. Officially, she is regularly commuting to her husband in Minsk, but among others the BBC claims that the couple is separated. They have two sons together - Viktor and Dmitry.

On the few occasions, when Lukashenka has commented on Mrs. Rodionovna, he has been saying things like: "Wives have no business in the affairs of state officials." Lukashenka has also reportedly been negative to examples where wives and children of state leaders are put in the limelight. This would seem one of the few positive traits of Lukashenka. However, keeping his family out of power seems to be an ambition that he nowadays is not fulfilling, as his sons appear to exercise an increasing influence in state affairs.

The picture above, courteously provided by Tobias Ljungvall, depicts the couple's wedding. However, it is one of only two available photos of Mrs. Rodionovna. The other one depicts her milking a cow, which does not appear a common chore for a presidential wife. Ljungvall claims that "she is said to be a decent woman." Then, what more is to be said? Questions abound, but little is disclosed. For the time being, it seems that Galina Rodionovna will continue to be a mystery to the world.

Belarus - The Tacit Triumph of Totalitarianism?

Hits, blows and kicks - the eternal language of totalitariansim - today confonts the people's inalienable right to freedom and democracy. This is Belarus - the centre of Europe - in February 2006. Here, evil old times still reign. With the grip as of an iron fist, president Aleksandr Lukashenka rules the country as a last remnant of soviethood. The outcome of the upcoming 19 March presidential elections seem predictable for the pre-ordained president in power.

A few days earlier, on March 15, the democratic opposition of Belarus may want to commemorate the country's first democratic constitution - that of 1994. However, few will probably dare to demonstrate for a democracy that has become defunct. This is so while, since then, Lukashenka leads a regime with increasing totalitarian expressions.

The people is denied not only democracy, but also the right to national identity. As a gesture of omnipotence, Lukashenka introduced Russian as the official language and forbade national symbols at an early stage of his presidential tenure. Oppression of national identity is one element of the nomenklatura strategy to hold on to the power and privileges of soviet times. Leading oppositionists are jailed or disappear in a country where the secret service still is called the KGB.

From democracy to dictatorship?
The road to democracy for Belarus was barred when Aleksandr Lukashenka in 1994 was elected president. Within a year, Lukashenka eliminated potential opposition from legislative power by staged parliamentary elections and a referendum that jointly gave him unrestricted powers. This was the first of a series of elections which legitimacy have come to be rejected by the Council of Europe, the OSCE and the international community in general. By power of decree and manipulated referenda, the president himself has been able to set the limits of his rule. A third presidential period was ensured in 1999 by way of changes in the constitution, and in 2004 all bars for presidential term limits were removed.

As Lukashenka now inevitably seems to be up for his third presidential term, one might ask what characterises Lukashenka's leadership? Several former associates question the mental health of the president. His demagogics express populism as well as paranoia. In the country that during WWII lost the highest percentage of its population, anti-semitism and admiration of Hitler seems awkward to say the least. Still, this has been part and parcel of presidential personality in Belarus. The international isolation of Belarus is explained by a conspiracy directed by the US and NATO. This was far from true when Lukashenka first aired such thoughts, but by provocative domestic and international behaviour, he has become l'enfant terrible of European politics. Today, western governments would cheer to see Lukashenka ousted from power. Conspiracy or no conspiracy - this is the simple fact. The veracity of Lukashenka's madness may probably be questioned. His policies may likewise be considered a shrewd calculation that he would never be able to make it, if Belarus were to become party to European integration. However, it seems clear that he suffers from a distorted sense of reality, which hardly can be explained by unrestricted power or international isolation.

Opposition

That the country's opposition is fighting an uneven battle has numerous reasons. They may be sought in remnants of soviet mentality and lack of freedom for the press. Still, there is greater freedom now than during the dark ages of soviet rule. As long as the power of the president remains unchallenged, the opposition has been allowed to act within restricted limits. One early example of the opposite were the 2001 presidential elections. Of Lukashenka's two opposing candidates one was in jail and the other in exile. Several mysterious deaths have also occurred among leading oppositionists. The question is also who are the legitimate representatives of the people. Is is the 1990 Supreme Soviet or the 1995 parliament? Neither the opposition nor Lukashenka's regime may lay claim to public support on the basis of free and fair democratic elections. A number of attempts at dialogue between regime and opposition have been made, primarily by the OSCE. So far, all efforts to fill the country's democratic vaccuum have failed.

Market socialism?

Belarus is located where historic trade-routs between east and west meet. When the country gained its independence in 1992, it had the highest level of education and the most modern economy of the former soviet republics. Prospects for a transition to market economy initially looked bright. Positive developments were, however, interrupted when Lukashenka implemented "socialist market economy." What this meant more than chaos and arbitrariness still remains an enigma. Thereby, Belarus joined other East European economies in free fall. However, contrary to its neighbours, Belarus never succeeded in turning development to the better. Official figures, as far as they went, indicated that only some 20% of the companies made ends meet. The apparent failure of economic policy ended in implicit liberalisation by simple popular disregard in order to get by. The abusive greed of the regime is also satisfied by other means. Thus, Belarus has become a centre of international arms trade since the 1990's.

The Chernobyl heritage

The 1986 Chernobyl nuclear disaster meant that 70% of radioactive downfall ended up in Belarus. Some 130,000 people were permanently evacuated from a zone the size of Wales. Long-term costs and consequences of Chernobyl are hard to estimate. Still, Lukashenka keeps silent on the effects of the catastropy on environment and health. That the Chernobyl issue, at times, has been able to unite opposition, has not facilitated the situation. It is becoming increasingly clear that democracy is a prerequisite to limit the long-term effects of Chernobyl.

Moscow and Minsk
Since the 1990's, Russia and Belarus have been knit closer together by a series of union agreements. Lukashenka's ambitions to one day become leader of a resurrected union has provoked irritation as well as ridicule in Moscow. It is also quite obvious that Russian president Putin despises Lukashenka as something the cat has dragged in. Putin has also met with representatives of the Belarus' opposition in a futile attempt to explore the possibilities of an alternative to Lukashenka that would be favourable to Russia. Returning to union plans, leading Russian politicians criticised the cooperation at an early stage. Russian policy towards the "near abroad" - the former soviet republics - initially set EU economic cooperation as an example. The realisation that the soviet empire was advantageous neither to Russia nor to the republics is easily counterbalanced by Russia's strategic interest in retaining Belarus within its sphere of influence. Neither the economic burden of Russian subsidies nor the knowledge of what happens in Minsk are important as long as Moscow keeps control over Belarus' security policy. Still, it is Russia that sets the limits of Lukashenka's rule. Russian support for his authoritarian regime is both untactical strategy and unstrategic tactics. In view of the country's size and location, Belarus might have the potential to become a bridge between the economies of Russia and the EU. A future democratic Belarus is Russia's window to Europe.

The Tacit Triumph of Totalitarianism?
What do the affairs of Belarus concern us? For most, Belarus remains a far-away country of which we know nothing. Despite western efforts to turn developments in Belarus towards democracy, next to nothing has been achieved. The lack of unity towards Belarus between the US and the EU, and among EU members themselves, has made western policies erratic and ineffective. It is also likely that any solution to the "Lukashenka problem" must involve Russia, while the west itself has imposed Moscow's droit de régard on the issue of Belarus. As external support by the joint and concerted efforts of the US and the EU, as well as perhaps - unlikely as it might be - Russia, are necessary to create conditions for change, such measures are far from sufficient to overturn the Lukashenka regime. True change can only be brought about by the people of Belarus itself. As long as neither external nor internal conditions exist, Belarus will remain a black hole in the middle of Europe.

As oppression against the opposition mounts for the upcoming March 19 presidential elections, the west may - to no avail - holler in protest at the top of its voice, if this is not accompanied by a sincere will to apply the measures necessary for change. For as long as the people of Belarus cannot exercise their freedom of speech and liberty of choice, totalitarianism tacitly triumphs in the Europe of 2006.