tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-197914912024-03-13T02:04:28.704+01:00Vilhelm Konnander's weblogPolitics & Security in Russia, Central & Eastern Europe & Central AsiaVilhelm Konnanderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09167606906861836286noreply@blogger.comBlogger204125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19791491.post-3512344742929408922014-10-09T14:01:00.000+02:002017-11-29T14:03:19.371+01:00We Need More Than a Strong Defence - On the System Threat From Russia<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Originally published in <i><a href="http://www.dalademokraten.se/opinion/debatt/debatt-det-kravs-mer-an-ett-starkt-forsvar-om-systemhotet-fran-ryssland">Dala-Demokraten</a></i>, 9 October 2014: It is time to face realities. Europe is at war and Ukraine is the first victim. We have awoken to new realities with an aggressive and authoritarian Russia, an annihilated European security order and the destruction of international law. A reactionary Russia poses a system's threat to freedom, democracy, and justice.<br />
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The new Swedish government needs to meet the challenges of the threat in our neighbourhood, and regain initiative to preserve peace and security in our surroundings.<br />
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The West has given up on Ukraine, lost the information war, and betrayed the promises of funding for a vulnerable Ukrainian democracy. NATO and the EU stand nonplussed in front of Russian aggression, occupation, and destabilization of Europe's next largest state. It is a moral capitulation, not by military superiority, but by human impotence. Russia's strength is our weakness in a battle of wills rather than realities. As Moscow's will meets realities, the risk also increases of a Russian Ragnarok in a putinistic regime collapse. What we with Ukraine have not dared call a war a war, so we dare not call the Russian regime by its true nam. Let us thus no longer deceive ourselves: Putinism is fascism. Russia is ruled by a party that since 2006 is a sworn enemy of a free and open society.<br />
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Putin speaks in terms from Hitler's "Mein Kampf" and threatens the use of nuclear arms if his will won't be done. Russia's threat is a system's threat that concerns all areas of society. We need more than a strong defence to counter this threat. We need a comprehensive security policy with a wide approach that beyond foreign and defence policies, also addresses economic, business, and legal policies.<br />
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The foundations of non-alignment in international law and sovereignty as well as Nordic-Baltic balance and stability in our surroundings is the nexus of Swedish security policy. Here, we need to regain initiative, widen maneuverability, increase our freedom of action, to preserve peace and security in Europe. Sweden's role to recreate a European security order should not be underestimated. To bind us to a nonplussed and spineless NATO confronted by Russian aggression bears witness to an incapability of assuming the responsibility for our own security. Security policy takes courage, judgment, and patience for the long-term construction in defence of Sweden's strategic interests and values. Beyond traditional Swedish security policy we are however confronted by a struggle in new arenas.<br />
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A first line of battle runs along the information arena. It takes political will and perseverance, distinction and openness about the Russian threat to oppose Moscow's power. We should not be misled and directed by Russian information warfare, paralyzing European initiative in Ukraine. A new psychological defence should be forward-looking, independent and flexible, with a capacity to oppose influence of politics and economy as well as defence and security.</div>
<div class="blogger-post-footer">Politics and security in Russia, Central and Eastern Europe, and Central Asia</div>Vilhelm Konnanderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09167606906861836286noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19791491.post-78514404565427075182012-08-19T02:25:00.000+02:002012-08-19T02:25:54.148+02:00Pussy Riot yet another example of how art is pitted against politics<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<b><span style="color: #b6d7a8;">For <i><a href="http://www.newsmill.se/artikel/2012/08/18/pussy-riot-nnu-ett-exempel-p-att-konst-st-lls-mot-politik">Newsmill.se:</a></i></span> The enormous attention that the indictment against <i>Pussy Riot</i> has created in both Russia and internationally is an example of an increasingly widespread global trend, where politics and art are pitted against each other and the reactions of society become a part of both art and politics.</b></div>
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Yesterday, a two year's prison sentence was passed in Moscow against three members of the Russian "punk band" <i>Pussy Riot</i>. The trio was found guilty of "hooliganism motivated by religious hatred." Reactions and condemnations against the sentence are manifold in both Russia and internationally, as it is evident that the penalty is not proportional to the alleged crime.</div>
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On 21 February this year - merely weeks before the Russian presidential elections - <i>Pussy Riot</i> made a mimic performance in front of the altar of Christ our Saviour Cathedral in Moscow wearing balaklavas and brightly coloured dresses. Within minutes they were seized on by security guards and thrown out of the church. Shortly thereafter, a video clip of the performance was published on YouTube, where music with a provocative song-text had been added. This so called "Punk prayer" was in the form of an invocation to the Holy Mother to drive out Putin and the Patriarch of the Russian Orthodox Church, Kirill I, was portrayed as putting faith in Putin before that in God.</div>
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Undoubtedly, it was this video clip rather than the performance itself that made the Russian state and church react, as it spread like wildfire on the Internet. In March, three of <i>Pussy Riot's</i> members were arrested, while a fourth is still hiding from authorities. The lawsuit that has dragged out for almost half a year has now been accordingly finalised, where the treatment of the prosecuted has cast new light on Russia's legal decay. A mere 2.7 % of people prosecuted by Russian courts in 2011 were acquitted. </div>
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The entire affaire has undeniably gained dynamics of its own, so one may assume that yesterday's verdict departs from the need of power to set an example. The increased confindence in the Russian legal system in recent years has thereby been turned into a setback in the politically directed jurisprudence, which since the process against former oligarch Khodorkovsky goes by the name of Basmanny justice. The trial against <i>Pussy Riot</i> has however taken the debate a step further, and several Russian liberal writers have compared the case with the show trials of the soviet era. The playback performance <i>Pussy Riot</i> made in Christ our Saviour Cathedral has thus also given rise to a historical playback.</div>
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It is also Russia's lack of due process that has caused reactions both in Russia and internationally. Already in April, Amnesty International characterized the members of <i>Pussy Riot</i> as prisoners of conscience. International organizations and artists are now joined by western public opinion, where the verdict against <i>Pussy Riot</i> become a symbol for all that is wrong with Russia. In this context, both strong and equally diverse Russian reactions shuold be brought to the fore. A number of opinion polls during the process have shown both strong support for dismissing the case and for a guilty verdict. Russian public opinion is divided and varied in relation to a complex issue that has come to address religion, ethics, and politics more than actual law. </div>
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That many believers in Russia have rightly felt offended by <i>Pussy Riot's</i> performance is beyond doubt, but this has been depreciated by the fact that a tasteless provocation has been overshadowed by an even more tasteless legal process. When the Russian Orthodox Church, in its condemnations of a feminist "punk band", has compared feminism with satanism, the Orthodox Patriarch, Kirill II, appears as the foremost representative of a patriarchic society. </div>
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Then, what is <i>Pussy Riot</i> and what is it all about? Let us first put a myth to rest. <i>Pussy Riot</i> is not a punk band. It is a feminist art commune, dedicated to performance art in a wide sense, where provocation is a means to gain attention. </div>
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<i>Pussy Riot</i> originates from the Russian street-art group <i>Voina</i>, which has produced a number of provicative and politically charged art projects. For the presidential installation of Medvedev in 2008, <i>Voina</i> made the performance "Fuck for the heir, Pussy Bear!", where five couples from the group - including a heavily pregnant woman - engaged in public group sex in the Moscow Museum of Biology, which was videotaped and published on the Internet. In 2010, the - then divided - group painted a giant phallos on a bascule bridge opposite the security service headquarters in St. Petersburg, where the result of raising the bridge should be obvious. Several members of <i>Voina</i> have previously been arrested for art projects. One of the now convicted women of <i>Pussy Riot</i> used to be a prominent member of <i>Voina</i>. </div>
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The enormous attention that the indictment against <i>Pussy Riot</i> has created in both Russia and internationally is an example of an increasingly widespread global trend, where politics and art are pitted against each other and the reactions of society become a part of both art and politics. A parallel may e.g. be drawn to China's repression of the artist Ai Weiwei. In Sweden, the performance art project "Okänd kvinna, 2009-439701" of art student Anna Odell met with strong negative reactions the other year, not least from politicians. One should remember that Odell was sentenced to pay 50 day-fines for "dishonest conduct".It is far from a rule that artistic freedom of expression - as in the case of Lars Vilks' Mohammed roundabout dogs - gains strong public support. </div>
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In this context, the perspective is not a comparison between preconditions of art in authoritarian and democratic states, but instead of how the margins of freedom of expression are tested as an effect of art regardless of the character of society. Thereby, the mechanisms of power and authority are illustrated - hopefully with different results in various political systems. That many of both <i>Voina's</i> and <i>Pussy Riot's</i> actions would be subject to public prosecution in most countries is evident. However, what differs is the legal process and the harsh sentence of the three members of <i>Pussy Riot</i>.</div>
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The lawsut against <i>Pussy Riot</i> can only be characterized as a travesty of justice. The law against hooliganism that motivated the verdict has such a broad definition that it may more or less cover all "crimes" perpetrated in public space. Hooliganism has however so far not been applied to "crimes" related to religion. If one would have wanted to prosecute the group on religious grounds, the law against extremism would have been applied instead, which e.g. covers acts to incite ethnic or religious hatred among groups in Russian society. However, the Russian constitution is secular, why application of the law against extremism in such a high-profile case, could have resulted in questioning of its compatibility with the constitution. Already in the choice of law, it is obvious that the process has been politically directed and motivated. Where <i>Pussy Riot </i>has claimed politics, the court has claimed religion as motive for the action. By interpreting the law in such a way that defamation of religion may constitute hooliganism, the court avoids applying the more politically chared law against extremism. Thus, paradoxically, the intent of the court appears clearer than that of the convicted, as an avoidance at any price to represent the process as what it actually is - a political trial. </div>
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The question is also to what extent <i>Pussy Riot</i> has had to answer to the previous "crimes" of their art movement. Is it a case of collective punishment? Is it art itself rather than its practitioners that stands trial? From the freedom of expression perspective, these questions are both central and complex, but when art is political, they end up in the background. Instead, focus has been at the intersection of politics and religion in Russia.</div>
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The issue of relations between church and state is very sensitive in Russia. The Russian Orthodox Church has developed into providing both legitimacy and identity for political power. The church has subordinated itself to the state, in a way resembling the soviet era, at the same time as it supports reactionary forces within the regime - with a background within the security structures - which at times challenge both Putin and Medvedev. It is thus evident that the regime's internal political considerations have dictated the application of the law. For what <i>Pussy Riot </i>has done is to pinpoint Russia's politico-religious symbiosis.</div>
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During the soviet era, the Orthodox Church was strictly directed by the KGB. The Russian journalist Yevgeniya Albats e.g. claims that some half of the clergy in reality were agents of the KGB. <i>Inter alia</i>, the Patriarch of the Orthodox Church until 2008, Aleksy II, served the KGB for many years and made decisive steps in his career by denouncing opposition elements within the clergy. As <i>Pussy Riot</i> now sings about how the state and the church row the same boat, it is a political provocation that challenges mighty interests within Russian society, where relations between church and security interests are a taboo. The reactions of the church has therefore been powerful, but religiously motivated condemnations have carried a clear political undertone. The irritation is further exacerbated as <i>Pussy Riot</i> has compared themselves to Godly maniacs - a tradition of dissenters within Orthodoxy, which e.g. has manifested itself by crazy, but often tolerated, truthsayers. The truth said by <i>Pussy Riot</i> is however too stark for the church, and the parallel to Godly maniacs has thus been portrayed as further evidence of the group's disrespect for religion.</div>
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A danger in the process against the <i>Pussy Riot</i> trio lies equally in simplyfying and complicating the case. The simple approach, to consider the trio's destiny merely as political persecution, obscures more complex issues on how far society may allow art to go in its various expressions. To the contrary, the danger of complicating the case, lies in ascribing the group greater artistic qualities than it actually possesses. A rather simplistic art performance has here been regenerated and magnified by the mechanisms of politics and media.</div>
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How generously or narrowly the margins of artistic freedom of expression should be drawn is a question that concerns us all and lacks simple answers. However, Russia has for long stepped over the limits of what a purportedly democratic state can allow itself in curtailing civil liberties and human rights. In this context, <i>Pussy Riot</i> has had to pay a disproportionate and exceedingly high price for art as political provocation. In essence, the verdict against <i>Pussy Riot</i> can be summarized by the famous thesis of German author, Kurt Tucholsky: "A country is not just what it does, but also what it tolerates." In Russia, this thesis has been put to the test, and the result stands out as a strongly negative indicator of the country's continuous authoritarian decay.</div>
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<div class="blogger-post-footer">Politics and security in Russia, Central and Eastern Europe, and Central Asia</div>Vilhelm Konnanderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09167606906861836286noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19791491.post-61053128514188119522012-07-28T07:34:00.000+02:002012-07-28T07:34:36.265+02:00Paving Political Potholes<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<b><span style="color: #b6d7a8;">For <i><a href="http://globalvoicesonline.org/2012/07/28/russia-paving-political-potholes/">Global Voices Online:</a></i></span> Say the word "roads" to most Russians, and you are likely to end up with an half-hour discussion. Throughout history, Russia has been infamous for its bad road quality. However, now Russian provincial city of Yekaterinburg seems to have come up with a solution to the problem, by making bureacrats get down to work. </b></div>
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Being a road engineer in Russia must be a nightmare. The combination of harsh climate, mud and marshlands, with annual frost and thaw, makes the upkeep of many roads next to an impossible task. During spring, some roads simly float off. Recently, Russian roads were ranked 125 out of 139 in the world by the World Economic Forum <a href="http://reports.weforum.org/global-competitiveness-2011-2012/">2011-2012 Global Competitiveness Report</a>. </div>
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One might assume that most Russians would have resigned to the task, but, whereas in a country like Canada, with similar conditions, few eyebrows are raised, in Russia roads have become a stain on national pride, in man's constant struggle to tame the forces of nature. Thus, last year, then Prime Minister Vladimir Putin <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/may/30/vladimir-putin-road-building-programme">announced</a> a massive road construction programme, to double the rate of building. </div>
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As with most overambtitious plans, Russians exercise some sound skepticism to its realization, and instead are beginning to take matters into their own hands, such as is the case in <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yekaterinburg">Yekaterinburg</a> - Russia's fourth largest city. </div>
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"Make the bureaucrat work" is the slogan of <a href="http://ura.ru/roads/">a local campaign</a> [ru] run by the regional Internet news agency, <a href="http://ura.ru/">Ura.ru</a>. Their solution to the road problem is as simple as it is elegant: They simply spray-paint the portraits of local dignitaries around potholes, with their quotes of promises to fix the problem, and guess what - problem solved!
What has taken local politicians years not to do, is now done overnight. The embarrassment of having their portraits so concretely fixed to the potholes of their power, has seemingly made authorities run about like mad to pave over their portraits of impotence, filling the holes in streets and roads.</div>
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So, what have been the reactions in Russian social media? </div>
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Tweeter @ekalmurzaeva <a href="http://twitter.com/Ekalmurzaeva/statuses/228032433537294336">shouts out</a> [ru]:
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Вот как заставляют работать чиновников! Портреты чиновников помогли отремонтировать дорогу.</div>
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<i>That's how to make bureaucrats work! Portraits of bureaucrats helped repair the road.</i></div>
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LJ user <em>salvatoreha</em> underlines the efficiency of the campaign, but also <a href="http://salvatoreha.livejournal.com/461475.html">points out</a> [ru] that it was not a one-hit overnight victory for the campaign:
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Напомним, что художники нарисовали на дорогах городских чиновников, причем ямы и пробоины попадали им в рот. Акция оказалась не только эффектной, но и эффективной. Сначала коммунальные службы закрасили рисунки либо удалили слой асфальта. Ночью авторы оставили дополнительное граффити «Закрашивать – не чинить!» К утру коммунальщики полностью заделали все дыры.</div>
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<i>Remember how artists painted city officials on the roads, with pits and holes filling their mouths. The action proved not only effectful, but also efficient. At first, municipal services either painted over the pictures or removed a layer of asphalt. At night [campaign] initiators left additional graffiti "Paint - don't fix!" By morning, municipality workers had fully patched all holes.</i></div>
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Others, like Yekaterinburg LJ user Ivan Dmitriyev, <a href="http://svetazaharova.visibli.com/share/3eOMA6">adds</a> [ru] some local colour and humour to the affaire:
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Десятки информагенств осветили данную акцию. Но в администрации города отнеслись с юмором к произошедшему, сказав, что Евгений Куйвашев собирается вечером гулять по городу пешком, и ему было бы любопытно взглянуть на одну из карикатур. Но кто-то из высокопоставленных коммунальщиков все-таки решил не травмировать психику родного начальника. Уже к следующему утру все дыры были залатаны, асфальт уложен, а лица, с кричащими ртами-ямами, были, следовательно, закрашены.
Результат получен – дело сделано, дыр нет. Вот и благо для родного города. Видимо, когда чиновники закрывают глаза на городские проблемы, необходимо им их раскрыть, а к своему «лику» они, как показал екатеринбургский опыт, относятся трепетно.</div>
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<i>Dozens of news agencies highlighted this action. But the city administration reacted with humour to what had happened, and said that [Governor] Yevgeny Kuyvashev was to take an evening stroll through the city, and that he was curious to take a look at one of the charicatures. But some senior municipal official still decided not to traumatize the psyche of his local boss. Already by next morning all holes were patched up, asphalt laid, and the faces, with screaming mouth holes, were consequently painted over.
The result was achieved - done deal, no holes. What a blessing to one's hometown. Apparently, when bureaucrats close their eyes to city problems, it is necessary to disclose them, because to their own "ranks", as the Yekaterinburg example shows, they remain in awe.</i></div>
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What is not said, is often more interesting than what is actually said. Critical voices to the "Make the bureaucrat work!" campaign are hard to find in social media. As noted by one blogger, even attacked politicians appear to look positively on the action, making their bureaucracy get down to work. </div>
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As a matter of fact, the method seems so efficient that one wonders how long it will take before the campaign is taken to a countrywide scale, possibly by the lively Russian motorists' movement. As Russia's legislators and police clamp down on political rights these days, perhaps this campaign indicates the growth of alternative popular action, a spontaneously evolving civil society, aimed at solving actual problems in people's everyday lives.
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</div><div class="blogger-post-footer">Politics and security in Russia, Central and Eastern Europe, and Central Asia</div>Vilhelm Konnanderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09167606906861836286noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19791491.post-42648829951077197892012-07-22T23:51:00.000+02:002012-07-22T23:53:04.512+02:00Medvedev and the "Belarusian Circus"<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVqKWnGTf1uw611U-0xFTO-QbyWOcrzZw4XD4KX5koZVPEKJG7LmzC9QvgCsz0yUlq6Bc4mz7gBzDJYbqS6876epmgpw72PP9usoID1KAROvbgfIoQp-BQJmGPIkfmW0in2PyR/s1600/158201b5caa312cb38751b7dd4310835_w616_h598.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="193" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVqKWnGTf1uw611U-0xFTO-QbyWOcrzZw4XD4KX5koZVPEKJG7LmzC9QvgCsz0yUlq6Bc4mz7gBzDJYbqS6876epmgpw72PP9usoID1KAROvbgfIoQp-BQJmGPIkfmW0in2PyR/s200/158201b5caa312cb38751b7dd4310835_w616_h598.jpg" width="200" /></a></div>
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<b><span style="color: #b6d7a8;">For <i><a href="http://globalvoicesonline.org/2012/07/21/russia-belarus-medvedev-and-the-belarusian-circus/">Global Voices Online:</a></i></span> A picture says more than a thousand words, the saying goes. An Instagram snapshot that the Russian PM Dmitry Medvedev tweeted as a tacit comment to his visit to Minsk sure does: the "Belarusian Circus." </b></div>
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During Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev's visit to Minsk on Wednesday, July 18, he <a href="http://twitter.com/MedvedevRussia/status/225627437449482240" title="In the streets of Minsk">tweeted</a> [ru] an <a href="http://instagram.com/p/NOpSyig_Gk/" title="Belarusian State Circus">Instagram snapshot</a> with the comment: "In the streets of Minsk." The problem with the picture is that it portrayed the <a href="http://www.circus.by/" title="Belarusian State Circus">Belarusian State Circus</a>, which could be interpreted as a tacit comment on Medvedev's meeting with the Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko and senior state officials. </div>
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Medvedev's visit to Minsk was no courtesy visit. A recent <a href="http://www.charter97.org/en/news/2012/7/18/55261/">smuggling scandal</a> has aroused much anger in Moscow, and Medvedev used the meeting to bring Lukashenko to account for the export of chemical solvents produced from the Russian supplies of duty-free oil. Another item on the agenda, <a href="http://www.ria.ru/analytics/20120719/703579028.html">according to</a> RIA Novosti [ru], was the recent intrusion into Belarusian airspace by a Swedish plane dropping teddy bears with anti-Lukashenko slogans. <a href="http://www.rferl.org/content/belarus-pulls-out-all-the-stops-to-solve-teddy-bear-caper-it-claims-never-happened/24648864.html">The bear incident</a> was a major embarrassment for Belarus in view of the two countries' joint air defence system. As a consequence, <a href="http://www.novayagazeta.ru/news/58376.html">a student</a> [ru] who published a photostory about the bears, and a <a href="http://http//5min.by/news/po-delu-pljushevogo-desanta-arestovali-16-letnjuju-minchanku.html">16-year-old girl</a> [ru], who allegedly took a photo of one of the bears, got arrested by the KGB.
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Then, how did social media react to the "Belarusian circus"?
Twitter user @minssk <a href="http://twitter.com/minssk/status/225859666561884160">united</a> [ru] the two themes of the circus and the teddies:
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Медведев прилетел в Минск, сфоткал цирк. До этого прилетали медведи, тот ещё цирк был, но с фотографом там не хорошая история получилась.</div>
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<i>Medvedev flew to Minsk and photographed a circus. Before this, bears flew in, which was quite a circus too, but the story with the [detained] photographer wasn't good.</i></div>
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Some, like @Dubovnik_Dmitry, <a href="http://twitter.com/Dubovik_Dmitry/status/225660342552915968">turned to sarcasm</a> [ru] when commenting:
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Медведев отметил минский цирк твитом:-) видно для того чтобы подчекнуть куда он приехал.</blockquote>
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<i>Medvedev mentioned the Minsk circus in a tweet:-) obviously to underline what kind of place he had come to.</i></div>
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Twitter user @daphnis_nerii <a href="http://twitter.com/daphnis_nerii/statuses/225650025525551104">assumed</a> [ru] a more ironic tone:
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Информационные порталы страны разместили новость о том, что Медведев сфоткал цирк. Что было бы, если б он в Беларуси в туалет сходил?</blockquote>
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<i>Information portals spread the news that Medvedev photographed a circus. How would it have been if he had gone to the toilet in Belarus?</i></div>
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Still, as Twitter user @yurok1521 <a href="http://twitter.com/yurok1521/status/225904521862320128">asked</a> [ru], the question on everyone's lips is this:
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Медведев намекнул на «цирк» в правительстве Беларуси?</blockquote>
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<i>Did Medvedev hint that there is "a circus" in the government of Belarus?</i></div>
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What Medvedev's intention with the tweet was, only he knows, but if it was a joke, it testifies to a certain sense of humour of the former Russian president with <a href="http://globalvoicesonline.org/2012/05/22/russia-the-runets-top-10-slang-words/">the nickname 'iPhonchik'</a>.</div>
</div><div class="blogger-post-footer">Politics and security in Russia, Central and Eastern Europe, and Central Asia</div>Vilhelm Konnanderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09167606906861836286noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19791491.post-51307796771202768822012-03-05T07:38:00.000+01:002012-03-05T07:38:47.245+01:00A Disgruntled Middle Class May Cause Putin's Fall<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3aTOuMqT5Q2HU55dsO5C7RwX8Cc41Hy6x1uW8pSmqVkxI20s9sVIZRfHDuR17E0FlN_7OZMmL-dwdtSDSYrM7VUEsTtLwveYqJjcIrJ01XXoO50gTQMEqAACGAV4EBpWd1ph8/s1600/Brezhnev-Putin.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="170" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3aTOuMqT5Q2HU55dsO5C7RwX8Cc41Hy6x1uW8pSmqVkxI20s9sVIZRfHDuR17E0FlN_7OZMmL-dwdtSDSYrM7VUEsTtLwveYqJjcIrJ01XXoO50gTQMEqAACGAV4EBpWd1ph8/s200/Brezhnev-Putin.jpg" width="200" /></a><b><span style="color: #b6d7a8;">For <i><a href="http://www.newsmill.se/artikel/2012/03/05/missn-jd-medelklass-kan-bli-putins-fall">Newsmill.se:</a></i></span> <i>Putin's inability to deliver on his promises sows the seeds to the civil society thay may cause his downfall. It does not suffice anymore to throw out bones to the middle class.</i></b><br />
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<b>Yesterday, Russia headed to the polls with no real choice. The winner was predetermined. Putin moves in to the Kremlin again, this time with a six year mandate and an option for another presidential term until 2024. A quarter of a century with Putin however appears increasingly unthinkable. The reason is not popular protest, but because Putin's policy is passé. The soviet structural legacy has caught up with Russia and plans to solve problems turned into idle talk. Russians want what Putin cannot do. Instead, people choose their own solutions. Personal interest is turned into societal interest, and the seeds of civil society are sown. </b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">Largely, Russian challenges reflect western, in terms of an aging population, deficient infrastructure, environmental problems, health and education, but on a much deeper level. Consequences of decades of lacking investment become all the more intrusive into Russian everyday life. Politics turns into an arena of what one must do, and not what one wants. When what one must is not possible, power turns irrelevant for the citizens.</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">Few things in Russian societal discourse has been discussed with such obsession in recent years as all the plana that necessarily must be realized to meet the challenges of the future. Plan succeeds plan, but results are lacking and the country is sliding deeper and deeper into stagnation. Plans have made politics a prisoner of its own rhetorics, and reality has overtaken Putin in his zeal to catch up. The result is threading on in the same old tracks until running in circles. In practise, there has been a single political priority - stability - that has crowded out all plans for change. Putin's political stability thus paradoxically leads to the opposite - political instability. </div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhoMZzAGV3sm9d9fQDPJFjSK_q_SFI7uF18Xv3AYvQaPcvusETEtc6-twUThj110BnhSluSI51NczPoxAOFGuJZ32DdO2rW3Sq65-XsKpSOaluke21Qtb2X-VQJfHa-P-9ZqnE3/s1600/recycling.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em; text-align: justify;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhoMZzAGV3sm9d9fQDPJFjSK_q_SFI7uF18Xv3AYvQaPcvusETEtc6-twUThj110BnhSluSI51NczPoxAOFGuJZ32DdO2rW3Sq65-XsKpSOaluke21Qtb2X-VQJfHa-P-9ZqnE3/s200/recycling.jpg" width="200" /></a></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">Some events define a regime regardless of whether perceptions are real or not. For Putin, it was terrorism and coloured revolutions. Thus, the play of circumstances set preconditions for an entire political era. Thus, a pathological obsession with internal and external enemies has turned Russian politics insane. Thus, fears of a flawed perception of reality arise. Because when threat turns into norm, the desire for normality rises. The western threat appears as paranoia. Terror becomes all the more tragic when authorities fail - as in Beslan and at the Dubrovka theatre - to deal with it, with an increasing sense of powerlessness as a result. The power of habit is great and the mantra of threat makes realities unreal when rhetorics turn danger into myth. Everyday threats become more real than those of the world, when causes of accident, unhealth, and insecurity are found in the inactivity of a state that self-centredly reflects itself in its own greatness instead of creating a better society for its citizens. </div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">Because it is a state that grows and grows but is capable to do less and less. When urgency is growing, it is not the state that puts down the fire. This realization grew during the great wildfires that ravaged central Russia during summer 2010. The state not only stood idly by faced by catastrophe, but withheld information that in too many cases could determine life or death to the public. The silence from authorities in connection to major accidents and disasters previously experienced now assumed massive proportions. However, people refused to passively stand by and watch their homes burn to the ground, and instead voluntarily joined together to fight approaching danger, e.g. with the use of social media. Information about the fires was gathered, fire-fighting coordinated and fighting equipment purchased - all on the initiative of ordinary people. The inactivity and incapability of the state forced people to voluntarily help each other. Society turned out to be greater than the state. </div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEieB8WPGbb6WnwfBnmgFfTasusUSZsiDXCyHlNnASOvIDfwbqMsdUtsyeak-cbcKhgb0VP1AuVwxJjupEyPJU8jxHry1a32SmNLXbycCZMS0ZBZH9Z2KCNhAuKZ8aomLkoXkmeO/s1600/Wildfire.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em; text-align: justify;"><img border="0" height="128" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEieB8WPGbb6WnwfBnmgFfTasusUSZsiDXCyHlNnASOvIDfwbqMsdUtsyeak-cbcKhgb0VP1AuVwxJjupEyPJU8jxHry1a32SmNLXbycCZMS0ZBZH9Z2KCNhAuKZ8aomLkoXkmeO/s200/Wildfire.jpg" width="200" /></a></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">The 2010 fires have ignited a flame that glows brighter and brighter in Russian sosciety by various big and small efforts. Many small and inconspicuous initiatives have been made previously. It may e.g. be policemen and security servants, who informally try to fight corruption and flaws within their own professions. It may be motorists, who inform each other about the corruption of traffic-police. Examples are growing in numbers, and so far it is more a matter about disclosing than fix the flaws and failures of society. What is decisive is that this type of citizen initiatives are not fundamentally political, or at least not perceived as such by participants and surroundings. You simply wants to solve the concrete problems that sorrounds you in everyday life. However, the effect is political in a way are difficult to master by state and authorities, because how does one accuse peole who merely want to improve their country. Many are patriots and honest people. Many also support Putin and his regime.</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">Here, the Internet has become both a tool to find likeminded people and to build platforms for information and action. It is this type of ideas and initiatives that the famous oppositional blogger Navalny has collected and built his fame on. Thereby, he has made the apolitical political, and turned apathy into sympathy for a spontaneous movement, first with the aim to achieve free and just elections, and then to depose of Putin. The same type of Internet platforms that previously were used to report fires are now used to coordinate voluntary election observation and to report irregularities and fraud at the ballots of Sunday's presidential elections. </div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">This is a development, which is hard to curb. To crack down on the opposition in the aftermath of elections is one thing. To crack down on those who only wants to do good is a completely different matter. As logics and mechanisms of citizen initiatives are the same, it is next to impossible for the regime to distinguish friend from foe. Already the protests planned for Monday may put the loyalty of police and security service to its test. Opposition demonstrations have gradually turned into festivals. To meet people with violence and brutality is something one for good reason hesitates to do, and it is probably seen as a last way out, both because of the message it would send and for fear of losing control over developments. Even if the opposition gathers masses in the tens or hundreds of thousands, demonstrations only affects relatively few. Many simply do not understand or care what it is all about.</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrG35961cLNAfbuQVCmlFsYuIvhNTaqLiPs4hwbxrHSulsICKcUDEJZqtHw0Q0QS5kuOtt5e6cKfhG0_Wk3z1_rh1AeEtiSzkf93oRFEY63l7l8xIisi5b4UUH-eQyuvCcVs_Q/s1600/10419_1241364918086_1348204887_696616_4858314_n.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em; text-align: justify;"><img border="0" height="140" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrG35961cLNAfbuQVCmlFsYuIvhNTaqLiPs4hwbxrHSulsICKcUDEJZqtHw0Q0QS5kuOtt5e6cKfhG0_Wk3z1_rh1AeEtiSzkf93oRFEY63l7l8xIisi5b4UUH-eQyuvCcVs_Q/s200/10419_1241364918086_1348204887_696616_4858314_n.jpg" width="200" /></a></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">Sunday's elections may not change Russia on the surface, but at its dephts it is a society that gradually is changing at its core. We are witnessing the growth of Russian civil society. Its significance should not be exaggerated, but neither should it be underestimated as both the plan and the rules of the game are changing. The discontent of a growing middle class must be taken seriously and the forms and contents of politics change when people organize. It does not suffice to throw bones around every now and then. Citizens want to sit at the tables of power in a way Russian politics do not understand. It is a question of power over everyday life, about close and concrete problems. Who is in the Kremlin is less important, but power must understand that the needs of the people must be reckoned with. The people deserves to be taken seriously and the needs of society cannot constantly come last in turn. </div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 17px;"><br />
</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">Are we then witnessing the end of the Putin era? The truth is that there are no good answers. Still, the Kremlin's communicative disaster in relation to a discontent and protesting middle class cannot go on, as it is now increasingly assuming the forms of political schizophrenia. The middle class mania of power is a constant theme of societal discourse. Now, the middle class is regarded as preservers of society and a self-interested guarantee for continued stability. Now, it is seen as movers of society and a source of Russian reform policies. Now, it is portrayed as subverters of society and traitors, when it demonstratively makes reasonable and righteous demands on politics. At length, the effect is that power turns the middle class away from itself, adds to uncertainty and insecurity, and makes the unthinkable thinkable - a Russia without Putin. Because the more the Kremlin fear propaganda adds to the image that Putin is the only alternative to chaos, crisis, and war, the less serious and credible will he appear as a politician. Propaganda risks turning into a self-fulfilling prophecy, and the personalization of Putin into an icon of a Russia in decay.</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">The rifts in Putin's coulisses grow and it becomes increasingly difficult just to patch up. Through the growing holes nothing and no-one is seen. The future scenery is dark and gloomy, against a towering warfare backdrop. Many also remember how Putin once sprung out of nothing onto the scene to play the lead role in more than a decade's Russian politics. A new cast for the play may by extension not be excluded, even if it is improbable that the curtain will drop for Putin. Still, it is a changed country that now emerges. We may not trust Russia, but does that mean that we do not trust the Russians when people now rely on their own abilities instead of state stagnation. When Russians are not given any choice, they make their own choices.</div></div><div class="blogger-post-footer">Politics and security in Russia, Central and Eastern Europe, and Central Asia</div>Vilhelm Konnanderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09167606906861836286noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19791491.post-1651889353241099312012-03-01T10:00:00.002+01:002012-03-02T13:55:10.696+01:00State is Greatest Enemy to Russian Economy<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"><div class="MsoNormal"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdtXiuZXtiyWdU-qTBXRWH4__G852PZ3te6mXAPvBigei8kuI9lh5mpz0xSg0e6z3Nl-XKeRLqeBb08KBrJnzhYF4UK9thO-8kkEoXmPiARtuGX9CNPt8Fyb736geHq5duCOqF/s1600/001te4sf.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em; text-align: justify;"><img border="0" height="186" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdtXiuZXtiyWdU-qTBXRWH4__G852PZ3te6mXAPvBigei8kuI9lh5mpz0xSg0e6z3Nl-XKeRLqeBb08KBrJnzhYF4UK9thO-8kkEoXmPiARtuGX9CNPt8Fyb736geHq5duCOqF/s200/001te4sf.jpg" width="200" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="color: #b6d7a8;">For <i><a href="http://www.va.se/va-opinion/newsmill-analys/staten-rysk-ekonomis-framsta-fiende-314448">Veckans Affärer:</a></i></span> In 2010, business paper <i><a href="http://www.euromoney.com/Article/2683869/Category/1/ChannelPage/0/Kudrin-and-Fischer-honoured-by-Euromoney-at-IMFWorld-Bank-meetings-in-Washington.html">Euromoney Magazine</a> </i>awarded Russia's Alexei Kudrin finance minister of the year in the world. Less than a year later, he was sacked by president Medvedev and joined a fragmented Russian opposition. This is just one example of how state and politics become Russian economy's greatest enemies. Growing political unrest in the runup to Sunday's presidential elections emanates from middle class discontent with failing governance, corruption, and political parasitism. "Stability, stagnation, and then what?" is what an increasing number of Russians ask themselves. Uncertainty about the future has suddenly increased the political risks with Russian economy.</b></div></div><div class="MsoNormal"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div></div><div class="MsoNormal"><div style="text-align: justify;">Russian economy is in good shape. With a budget in balance, one of the lowest state debts among major countries, just over 4% growth and 5% inflation in 2011, the country's prospects seem bright. Threats are the usual: Falling oil prices and turbulence in the financial markets. Despite positive signs, we now see a lapse in recent years' dynamic developments. A temporary "wait and see" in the runup to Sunday's elections may lead to a more permanent economic slow-down because of political inability to cater for long-term economic needs.</div></div><div class="MsoNormal"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div></div><div class="MsoNormal"><div style="text-align: justify;">January witnessed the <a href="http://www.cdi.org/russia/johnson/russia-political-risk-437.cfm">greatest financial outflow</a> from Russia since the 2008-2009 financial crisis. Growth was at zero and inflation is expected to rise during 2012. Where political analysts are silent, the market speaks out clearly. Trust in state and politics plummets, as the failed December parliamentary elections have dislodged the power and interest balance within United Russia - the country's ruling politico-economic cartel.</div></div><div class="MsoNormal"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div></div><div class="MsoNormal"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjPudRW22QZN-bs6esECLmZ-HDTcmZLjZnvcIIN3Zny9umLZkSwbMYgHq07Nb_IqLLfcutjde4-8oZiefRXIKQ6asW5ipb1AXaohdEBx45lJPAHfKF9qEmPzK5KKbA-MNCUoeK/s1600/pr1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em; text-align: justify;"><img border="0" height="149" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjPudRW22QZN-bs6esECLmZ-HDTcmZLjZnvcIIN3Zny9umLZkSwbMYgHq07Nb_IqLLfcutjde4-8oZiefRXIKQ6asW5ipb1AXaohdEBx45lJPAHfKF9qEmPzK5KKbA-MNCUoeK/s200/pr1.jpg" width="200" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Even if fears prove exaggerated, it will take much time before the system reaches equilibrium again. The effects of prominent politicians' resignations become increasingly clear. Above all, Kudrin's sound financial policy has been replaced by overbid policies and pork-barrelling. Increased state expenditures is like throwing money into a black hole, believing it is a wishing-well. The flow of money instead runs from the oil wells, where energy constitutes a third of state income. Outside the energy sector, only middle class consumption drives the economy.</div></div><div class="MsoNormal"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Putinism's political strategy - to promote the middle class in exchange for power - has failed. Instead, they have to bear the burden of a bureaucracy, which has <a href="http://rbth.ru/articles/2011/12/26/bureaucrats_impede_russias_economic_growth_14092.html">grown by 40% since 2000</a>. State efficiency has constantly fallen since 2003, with a corruption that affects everyday life of an increasing number of Russians. Only during 2011, the <a href="http://en.rian.ru/crime/20120127/170981823.html">level of bribes tripled</a>, accordning to the Interior Ministry. Bureaucracy and corruption are poisoning the flexible and dynamic business climate, where everything was forbidden, but everything also possible. Opportunities have decreased and hopes for the future changed to skepticism and discontent. Recent popular protests have thus greater depth than ordinary political opposition, as the state obstructs basic preconditions to earn money and make a decent living.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Except for the country's dependence on oil prices, Russian society is confronting fundamental structural challenges, which demand an increase in economic diversity. Declining demography reduces the number of Russians of productive age. Mounting flaws in infrastructure, health, environment, and education threaten to shrink productivity. Politics has not only failed to address these flaws. It has also reduced the economic incentives of the middle classes to contribute to diversification. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVt-zGi7u8_vV6mGUSah6EpJd0rcmyXq8LAkGUrgce0NU5O4i7SJyyZCIUxok0dhGlz-HpgcMXLshSPdqCZe49fwDwWXuUg2RMe380rjXhHuEx6JREEIK9YErqMBmoYtGlqbiy/s1600/310187_10150332469042734_661227733_8337768_1492581199_n.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em; text-align: justify;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVt-zGi7u8_vV6mGUSah6EpJd0rcmyXq8LAkGUrgce0NU5O4i7SJyyZCIUxok0dhGlz-HpgcMXLshSPdqCZe49fwDwWXuUg2RMe380rjXhHuEx6JREEIK9YErqMBmoYtGlqbiy/s200/310187_10150332469042734_661227733_8337768_1492581199_n.jpg" width="143" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;">What worries most, is the increase in political polarization that Putin now propels. The protesting middle class, with reasonable demands on those in power, is portrayed as traitors. This is a dangerous message and illustrates a contempt for those, who until recently were seen as Russia's future. As derision turns into threats against protesters, Putin alienates and provokes the very groups that have greatest potential to contribute to the country's further development and shows that material more than human resources are seen as the source of Russian growth. The economy may be sound, but as long as political malaise is spreading in the social body, risks will grow for Russian economy as people now have had enough of Putin.</div></div></div><div class="blogger-post-footer">Politics and security in Russia, Central and Eastern Europe, and Central Asia</div>Vilhelm Konnanderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09167606906861836286noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19791491.post-62574520133854322502012-02-03T22:49:00.000+01:002012-02-03T22:49:55.464+01:00Saturday May Show the Way for Russia's Spring<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWLyQ0fC35KHHrtA4UDf-IGnQMl28ldPJYPoAE_qCDQB1YeiCJoI4I8dptUqNlbFwwFb2Pt2NtatAvne64HLbXKn_-NnCXdCgc7mB3WY-NKPfYgoHG8lvdvG6QTgKes7yLvpzq/s1600/priplachivaut-putin-2011.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em; text-align: justify;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWLyQ0fC35KHHrtA4UDf-IGnQMl28ldPJYPoAE_qCDQB1YeiCJoI4I8dptUqNlbFwwFb2Pt2NtatAvne64HLbXKn_-NnCXdCgc7mB3WY-NKPfYgoHG8lvdvG6QTgKes7yLvpzq/s200/priplachivaut-putin-2011.jpg" width="141" /></a></div><b style="text-align: justify;">For <i><a href="http://newsmill.se/artikel/2012/02/02/l-rdag-kan-visa-v-gen-f-r-rysslands-v-r">Newsmill.se:</a></i> </b><span style="text-align: justify;"><b><i>The political landscape is characterized by an uncertainty without comparison during the Putin era. How the Russian leaders will handle continued mass protests, they probably do not know themselves. We are heading towards an uncertain spring.</i></b></span> <b style="text-align: justify;"> </b><br />
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<b style="text-align: justify;">It was said about Hilding Hagberg, the Swedish 1950s communist leader, that he used to unfold his umbrella when it was raining in Moscow. Kremlin interest in the powers of weather has seldom been as great as now, for the Saturday 4 February opposition protests. Weather might decide the size of demonstrations and thereby the power in demands for Putin's dismissal. On Christmas eve, 100,000 gathered for the largest protests since the fall of the Soviet Union - an unwelcome reminder for the country's leadership that power is not a given.</b><br />
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</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">A prognosis for continued developments up until the 4 March presidential elections is something few want to make today. The political landscape is still characterized by an uncertainty without comparison during the Putin era. How the Russian leaders will handle continued mass protests, they probably do not know themselves. We are heading towards an uncertain spring.</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8tVlpKELVI9FmS58XB3vplmoLqsfMhWP9MWBiXq1qsPvsOnbHR3S2f2c4L_phbG5YUrtcOhTIkhRMrYC4j4RmVxEBdRl2EapAsMZ4hVnxkpauhOgPrCqauqwptEBFFCe5JzMJ/s1600/128624.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em; text-align: justify;"><img border="0" height="141" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8tVlpKELVI9FmS58XB3vplmoLqsfMhWP9MWBiXq1qsPvsOnbHR3S2f2c4L_phbG5YUrtcOhTIkhRMrYC4j4RmVxEBdRl2EapAsMZ4hVnxkpauhOgPrCqauqwptEBFFCe5JzMJ/s200/128624.jpg" width="200" /></a></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">The Russian "tandemocracy" - with Putin at the handlebar and Medvedev as navigator - is swaying precariously when the map does not match reality. The roadmap has been thwarted and where things are heading, nobody knows. No wonder the passengers protest.</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">Russia during Putin may be read as a success story for a country in chaos and disarray after the collapse of the Soviet empire. A political mess and economic crisis turned into stability and growth, with the emergence of a thriwing middle class - although under increasing authoritarian rule. However, the Russian power paradox remains: The more formal state power, the less ability to exercise it. With the exception of political stability and some recent improvements in the rule of law, state governance capabilities have deteriorated since 2004. In Russian everyday life, this means constant encounters with corruption and wrongs without limitations or end. With falling energy incomes, power may no longer compensatre for discontent, at the same time as an increasingly affluent people demands more from those in power. Stagnation is seen in a system and confidence crisis.</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDXp1rQXdPo9MlAQ6DxTm0Lmxo4BTYfm8-Cu0ZiDjYbPm1TTNvEDQkINwy6xBQ1ljSLCk0Wgk4GXmWzcCdJ5o2pPnP1FwSQZB8_HK3sQDSX95i50Ohc7KQ5G9TdmeJPTi3dImN/s1600/photo_1323523978546-9-0.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em; text-align: justify;"><img border="0" height="139" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDXp1rQXdPo9MlAQ6DxTm0Lmxo4BTYfm8-Cu0ZiDjYbPm1TTNvEDQkINwy6xBQ1ljSLCk0Wgk4GXmWzcCdJ5o2pPnP1FwSQZB8_HK3sQDSX95i50Ohc7KQ5G9TdmeJPTi3dImN/s200/photo_1323523978546-9-0.jpg" width="200" /></a></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">When Putin's presidential candidacy became clear last year, to many it was a sloping road without end. With twelve years in the rear mirror, six year terms and two terms, the perspective of Putin as president was 2024 - half a lifetime for many Russians. The temperature in public opinion - the state of the nation - fell under zero in late summer, with some mild weather during autumn, to turn to new winter cold after the botched December parliamentary elections, with Putin's support for "the party of crooks and thieves" - United Russia. The voter barometets of the polling institutes are uncertain and at times inflated. Still, approval ratings for Putin have been halved over the last year from 60% to 27%. All the same, he would - lacking alternatives - get half the votes. </div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkg7_WmJylk6XZxdbGCn151BjSR-_bf40Usg-pyk1-xj4WfD9QLGSCcEItCu7TMyxyONBXszbcTdvyPVv0qn8XL9YJqIZ9grm1s-TjbD2J2Bc2d12arDJ8bGcbjRHl5mtIdSmd/s1600/element-664097-misc-romodeus_1_700.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em; text-align: justify;"><img border="0" height="133" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkg7_WmJylk6XZxdbGCn151BjSR-_bf40Usg-pyk1-xj4WfD9QLGSCcEItCu7TMyxyONBXszbcTdvyPVv0qn8XL9YJqIZ9grm1s-TjbD2J2Bc2d12arDJ8bGcbjRHl5mtIdSmd/s200/element-664097-misc-romodeus_1_700.jpg" width="200" /></a></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">It is thus the lack of alternatives that Putin now attacks. He puts stability, prosperity and national unity against the opposition's chaos, crisis, nationalism and disarray. Is that enough for a victory or must he rely on the system - aimed at fighting "coloured revolutions" - that he has built? The answer is uncertain. On the other hand, crisis is not Putin's greatest talent, with a record of bad judgement, bad information processing, hasty decisions, and sometimes ruthless brutality. Caution and apprehension thus signify regime reactions in the hope of improved sentiments. At the same time, the threat of confrontation is in the air. The question is if the system trusts itself anymore.</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">For many, an end of the Putin era would be dangerous and unrealistic wishful thinking. However, the power of wishful thinking should not be underestimated, when feelings replace the rationality Putin appeals to. The opposition is no realistic alternative, but the Putinist regime's lack of openness, new thinking, and perspective, carries as little allure. Eventually, one may simply rely on the gut-feeling, as Russians have always done - putting trust in yourself instead of those in power, who only offer more of the same.</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0p2M5wD3M1dq3bkbnU4Cy4B_yksQ40f4my-98ViW_Hwwr1UMrQSzqavZBOd4QokT-bTDqjYmsjGcuM8LA4rbFmOMJ6LrSDdI0CXRnqiXhQeKC_trFkXxwqz4bVdFQTJVHfUPK/s1600/400093_148995558550711_100003208032044_193202_532470442_n.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em; text-align: justify;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0p2M5wD3M1dq3bkbnU4Cy4B_yksQ40f4my-98ViW_Hwwr1UMrQSzqavZBOd4QokT-bTDqjYmsjGcuM8LA4rbFmOMJ6LrSDdI0CXRnqiXhQeKC_trFkXxwqz4bVdFQTJVHfUPK/s200/400093_148995558550711_100003208032044_193202_532470442_n.jpg" width="133" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Feelings are like weather. No one controls them, not even in a managed democracy. Dark clouds are piling up, but perhaps a ray of hope glimmers out of the dark skies of Russian democracy. Are we heading towards a Russian spring, or will there be a new front of Russian cold? The answer will be given after the 4 March presidential elections, but perhaps we will get an advance glimpse already on Saturday 4 February, as people gather in protest against corruption and misrule in Russian streets and squares. The Kremlin can no longer simply unfold its umbrella and pretend it is raining. Can we?</div><br />
</div><div class="blogger-post-footer">Politics and security in Russia, Central and Eastern Europe, and Central Asia</div>Vilhelm Konnanderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09167606906861836286noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19791491.post-44495929463458444762012-01-24T18:18:00.000+01:002012-01-24T18:18:48.753+01:00Why Putin Receives Popular Support<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj421x94_gNeox09AkGjqqj7cllLtuwLLc6XfBATmhgt0751fdughwzTulywDtWFrSS_HfAtCKU-EfeSqSrWy7sMY-f8Wloef6d7O0dM5eHrlwcKDEPMTbqOT7EOBbBrD3Kg01L/s1600/lenin_stalin_putin_alien.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em; text-align: justify;"><img border="0" height="113" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj421x94_gNeox09AkGjqqj7cllLtuwLLc6XfBATmhgt0751fdughwzTulywDtWFrSS_HfAtCKU-EfeSqSrWy7sMY-f8Wloef6d7O0dM5eHrlwcKDEPMTbqOT7EOBbBrD3Kg01L/s200/lenin_stalin_putin_alien.jpg" width="200" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>For <i><a href="http://newsmill.se/artikel/2012/01/24/d-rf-r-f-r-putin-folkets-st-d">Newsmill.se:</a></i> <i>If not Putin - then who? The bitter truth is that twelve years with Putin have eradicated next to all viable alternatives in Russian politics.</i></b></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b><br />
</b></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>"Resign Putin!" has been the primary popular demand of the protests that have shaken Russia ever since the country's farsical parliamentary elections at the beginning of December. An increasingly clear dividing line is now drawn between constructive and destructive interests in Russian politics, where the power's mudslinging of the opposition is a double-edged sword in the political battle that is now underway before open curtain in Moscow, but where the question also is whether the opposition can and wants to shoulder the responsibility that a revolution would involve. Here an open letter from Boris Berezovsky - an exiled oligarch - risks setting the tune to portray the opposition as irresponsible western lackeys with the single aim of causing chaos and set fire to Russia.</b></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVCCgcps4SByaCeEAscA6hP1v9CXpD_w10xFPksNkMotqAN4mNwP_W0wDK_LkTWo-X9aawtrZTjsKt-SM6QGVtuQef_U4DKoj1kidpicxKmvdlgIWQuaUgeudBcGYiiKmCPjGC/s1600/Berezovsky.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em; text-align: justify;"><img border="0" height="150" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVCCgcps4SByaCeEAscA6hP1v9CXpD_w10xFPksNkMotqAN4mNwP_W0wDK_LkTWo-X9aawtrZTjsKt-SM6QGVtuQef_U4DKoj1kidpicxKmvdlgIWQuaUgeudBcGYiiKmCPjGC/s200/Berezovsky.jpg" width="200" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;">When one of Russia's most hated men, Boris Berezovsky, in an open letter to Putin appeals to him that he should resign, the question is whether the purpose is that he should meet popular demands or if the oligarch simply wants to throw a torch at the powder keg that Russian politics have evolved into over the last one and a half month.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Abandoned by both friends and enemies, Putin soon has only the Russian Orthodox left to turn to for protection, as Berezovsky portrays it, and the oligarch turns to the Russian leader in a prayer that he will save the country from a bloody revolution. The reply from the Moscow patriarchate was swift: "All the previous doings of this man prompts a single thought. Listen attentively to this gentleman and do exactly the opposite of what he proposes."</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">As is so often the case in Russian politics, it is at the same time a both skilled and primitive game that is played out and, of course, this may be viewed merely as yet another cynical ouverture from an exiled oligarch, who seizes every opportunity to sow conflict among the Russian elite from which he himself has become an outcast and now has no influence over.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Berezovsky's ouverture puts the finger on a crucial point in the pre-election debate: "If not Putin, then who?" The bitter truth is that 12 years with Putin have eradicated next to all alternatives in Russian politics. Both history and the present show that opposition leaders either are those who have not been able to get along with Putin or they are marginalised and compromised politicians from both left and right, who have long been thought obsolete.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">On two points, Berezovsky is right. The first is that the party in power, <i>United Russia</i>, stands on the brink of disaster. Several of the party's most prominent representatives have been forced to resign and the internal conflicts of interest, that Putin for so long has either skilfully balanced or swept under the carpet, are now out into the open. The second is how the Orthodox church is a power that stands above politics. If the <i>United Russia</i> power coalition collapses under internal and external pressure, then it is possible that the church will stand out as the single unifying force, which may act with sufficient moral weight to avoid chaotic and potentially violent developments.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgU3C_sfqIY_3IzaixzI6obuFAonXW5XRAWteeGURVtdLw_qQvLxWje01R3cLfrGNqSbJGyH6UDRJNya7JUm8QDugqlkrHBwmOo2w84GAsGABxriB5UVin0CjjOJJP1jv68voRQ/s1600/white+ribbon.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em; text-align: justify;"><img border="0" height="143" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgU3C_sfqIY_3IzaixzI6obuFAonXW5XRAWteeGURVtdLw_qQvLxWje01R3cLfrGNqSbJGyH6UDRJNya7JUm8QDugqlkrHBwmOo2w84GAsGABxriB5UVin0CjjOJJP1jv68voRQ/s200/white+ribbon.jpg" width="200" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;">With the December protests, bottled up discontent has been unscrewed and the spirit has been let out. The current critical media coverage - even on television - would not have been possible or even conceivable a mere month ago. There is discussion about a second <i>glasnost</i> - openness. People in common welcome a lustration and weathering of the stale smell of power, which for so long has lain like a wet blanket of corruption over Russian everyday life. At the same time, Putin and his forces have begun to mobilize a counterattack. The further course of the battle and its final outcome remain uncertain.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">When Berezovsky from his western exile pleads with Putin to save Russia by sacrificing himself, he does not only play with a Putinist system on an increasingly loose foundation, but he also plays into the hands of the Russian leader's attempts at blackening the opposition. The motive for an otherwise impotent Berezovsky wants to add to the confrontation of Russian society in order for it to collapse under its own weight.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjK8Bc6pDV-I8HsJyXma4RYBatlbGOR9MI2ikrzj1qqQ_6TJg9IEGoFVL7HmzIch4vtpUPV2ghM3UoXipt0zEhbf0F-gPFoHKpc9D-w7kZLv4lYxWK1pGIJIV0nklRbW98iWXTW/s1600/Berezovsky-Navalny.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em; text-align: justify;"><img border="0" height="133" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjK8Bc6pDV-I8HsJyXma4RYBatlbGOR9MI2ikrzj1qqQ_6TJg9IEGoFVL7HmzIch4vtpUPV2ghM3UoXipt0zEhbf0F-gPFoHKpc9D-w7kZLv4lYxWK1pGIJIV0nklRbW98iWXTW/s200/Berezovsky-Navalny.jpg" width="200" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;">That the fallen oligarch's, Berezovsky, letter to Putin has been published by the independent radio station <i>Echo of Moscow</i>, has opened the watergates for a crackdown on this leading alternative news outlet. Recently, Putin accused the radio station for "pouring diarrhoea on him all day long" and to b on a western leash. Also other opposition leaders have come in for their shares after a meeting with the new US ambassador to Russia. A picture of the well-known blogger and opposition activist with the (Jewish-born) Berezovsky was also recently published later to be found photoshopped with. The theme is familiar and alludes to the foundations of the Putinist system, namely that oligachs in association with western interests want to plunder and weaken Russia by usurping state power. From the oligarch rule of the Yeltsin era to the coloured revolutions of Eastern Europe, the western threat - often with an anti-semitic undertone - has been drummed into public consciousness in order to legitimize an increasingly corrupt regime. When the backwash of the Arab spring and popular protests in other parts of the world now rolls in over Russian shores, it is a short step to pull off some old tricks.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgalsfsjtZU4eXaRcy8_2ESt-Ki0PQI697j-RuwAVUBSNFyqxWliMVX5zu3BVAnvwrRX2NyGod36fDiQqed_5uCutPvE101e4JJ1gWvZfJvMTWbo0zTgYrmJZAMBWkXUGw1pZ5r/s1600/10419_1241371918261_1348204887_696654_2846386_n.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em; text-align: justify;"><img border="0" height="136" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgalsfsjtZU4eXaRcy8_2ESt-Ki0PQI697j-RuwAVUBSNFyqxWliMVX5zu3BVAnvwrRX2NyGod36fDiQqed_5uCutPvE101e4JJ1gWvZfJvMTWbo0zTgYrmJZAMBWkXUGw1pZ5r/s200/10419_1241371918261_1348204887_696654_2846386_n.jpg" width="200" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The system to exercise power that Putin constructed during his presidential reign departed from the role of the office as guarantor of the constitutional order in a very thwarted interpretation. To safeguard the internal and external sovereignty, the constitution was interpreted in a way that gave the president a constant and pragmatic right to declare a state of emergency in both small and big matters. This interpretation was accompanied by systematic legislative work, where basic civic rights and freedoms were limited to the point that they were under constant threat of being repealed in practical legal application. The motive was to prevent illegitimate interests from usurping state power, because without sovereignty - the capacity to self-rule - there could be no talk of civic rights and freedoms. This meant centralization of power and intolerance towards dissent. The result is evident today in a system with both the right and resources to repression, ready to nip any negative manifestation of views in the bud.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">What recent events have illustrated is a disorientation and a faltering will to exercise this power. When police and security services stand idle in front of mass protests the fears and apprehensions of repression and retaliation have faltered. It is an inner struggle of popular conscience, filled with undecisiveness to stability or change, where questions of courage, morale, and conviction are put to the test not only among those in power or in opposition, but also to a greater extent among ordinary people. It is simply difficult to picture a future without Putin - to thread into the unknown. One knows what one does not want, but not what one wants. This uncertainty is now used by Putin by urging, in his recently published electoral platform, for reform instead of a repetition of the mistakes committed in the wake of the country's previous revolutionary convulsions. How successful this tested formula will be this time is yet to be determined, as an increasing number of people associate continued stability with increasing stagnation.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgA5o_EQTUzupQoyhfoWPw3AZhJ8RRfxklP6CckOGCsDR72OGzEi-yeEnUBuclf-_O77Ciyojt_k1CpF1wPxdveEyccFbfmdwc5zgV4layrrP95bLr3QuMhMSnC3Zb8fMFORthT/s1600/5c79877b2937.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em; text-align: justify;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgA5o_EQTUzupQoyhfoWPw3AZhJ8RRfxklP6CckOGCsDR72OGzEi-yeEnUBuclf-_O77Ciyojt_k1CpF1wPxdveEyccFbfmdwc5zgV4layrrP95bLr3QuMhMSnC3Zb8fMFORthT/s200/5c79877b2937.jpg" width="148" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Putin's credibility as a reformer is limited, as twelve years in power have shown little result despite recurrent plans and persistent attempts at reform. The division of powers between an executive Prime Minister and a reformatory President, which would have driven change, has moreover led to an increasingly marginalised Medvedev, despite the latter's attempts at forming a higher profile and greater independence during the last four years' "tandemocracy".</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">With the December events, Putin's popularity figures have reached a low. From a persistent support of some 70% of Russians, figures now oscillate around 50%. Additionally, in the latest opinion poll - from a state-directed institute - a quarter of respondents state that they have lost confidence in him. Much thus indicates that the results of the 4 March presidential vote will determine whether Russians will consider the elections as legitimate or not. If Putin receives more than 50% of votes and the election is decided by a single ballot, people are likely to question its validity. Being forced to a second round might however also be construed as a sign of weakness, which could strengthen the opposition in the runup to the final ballot. The temptation to tamper with the vote to gain a appropriate result may therefore increase in the eyes of power.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Putin's leadership will be put to a hard test in the coming months. Previous experiences have shown that he has difficulties in coping with crisis situations, which either have caused passivity or rash decisions. There is good ground to assume that Putin under such circumstances has trouble to reconsider and act in changing and unclear situations. The Russian leadership currently appears fumbling to grasp various ways of handling popular protests, with both concession and confrontation. The overarching tendency though seems to be to tighten the screws on the opposition. Several representatives of the opposition and their relatives have become subject to direct or indirect threats and reprisals. The great protest manifestation planned for February 4 has also been banned by Moscow authorities.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxGBOEIAHS0ZalKWQ-L6BSE1J4GE892Z7myA-f_0q82PnbvXqDlB7u5Df81cVd1srKeUEk6BNkYJgqW2wNpL2ZG3j6ZU-5lcW2NaTfz-qhN7yYQnHqbcIacS5LQv24ELMqX518/s1600/Putin+KGB.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em; text-align: justify;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxGBOEIAHS0ZalKWQ-L6BSE1J4GE892Z7myA-f_0q82PnbvXqDlB7u5Df81cVd1srKeUEk6BNkYJgqW2wNpL2ZG3j6ZU-5lcW2NaTfz-qhN7yYQnHqbcIacS5LQv24ELMqX518/s200/Putin+KGB.jpg" width="133" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;">As Russia now is likely to meet with continued popular protest, it constitutes a balance act for Putin and his power apparatus. If he chooses to be too tough in quelling the opposition, the popular reaction may lead to greater protest to the extent that it threatens the regime. The risk is then that loyalty to power will collapse like a house of cards. At the same time, it is hard for Putin to allow continued public critique of how Russia is ruled, as it may lead to the same result in an avalanche of discontent over social evils disclosed. The question is if he will be capable of balancing between confrontation and tolerance.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">That most people seem to take it for granted that Russia's next president will be called Vladimir Putin is also rather a curse than a blessing, as it creates unclarities as to which voter groups will be activated or become passive - regime supporters or opponents. The question here is if the mere threat of instability may drive the people to the ballots in support of the prevailing order. Will Putin be able to portray his policies as constructive and that of the opposition as destructive, there is still a chance that he may conquer a positive agenda in relation to the electorate. Here, it appears that the letter of the widely hated Berezovsky comes as a godsend, but at the same time sows a seed for a dirty election campaign, which may eventually be a curse to Putin.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">What the outcome will be may be indicated at the 4 February opposition protests - already the next weekend.The final say will however be made only by the 4 March presidential elections. The question then is if fears for a white revolution and instability or the wish for free and fair elections will emerge victorious. Because, regardless of how one judges the Russian regime's ability to weather the storm, the recent protests mean that Russia stands at a crossroads between repression, revolution, or reforms.</div></div><div class="blogger-post-footer">Politics and security in Russia, Central and Eastern Europe, and Central Asia</div>Vilhelm Konnanderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09167606906861836286noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19791491.post-55454579734857891022011-12-30T23:55:00.000+01:002011-12-30T23:55:35.345+01:00Is Also Russia Finally Awakening?<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"><div style="text-align: justify;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-wUS3BK0Ae40/Tv45osrlnhI/AAAAAAAAARM/wow6ZrjiV_o/s1600/putin_27_k.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; cssfloat: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><strong><img border="0" height="200px" rea="true" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-wUS3BK0Ae40/Tv45osrlnhI/AAAAAAAAARM/wow6ZrjiV_o/s200/putin_27_k.jpg" width="200px" /></strong></a><strong>For <i><span style="color: #b6d7a8;">Newsmill.se:</span></i> As tens of thousands gather in Moscow and other Russian cities, it is in protest against a corrupt regime, which no longer can provide its people with a belief in the future that might legitimize its further possession of power. The feeling of "we cannot live like this anymore" that became the hallmark of the last days of the soviet empire has reawakened, but the question is only how decisive this feeling will be for the further development of the country.</strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: justify;">Russia is currently undergoing one of the most interesting and crucial phases since the Russian revolution. In contrast to the chaotic collapse of the Soviet Union, these are developments that are met with open eyes. Fundamentally, it is a question of whether the political system that has been created may assume the great structural challenges, which the country will meet with over the next decade. In short, all the problems and deficiencies that have been ignored since 1991 will peak around 2020: Demography, infrastructure, economy, environment, health and medical care, education, etc. The list goes on in what seems like eternity, but it essentially means that the people will meet with an increasingly tougher everyday life at the same time as people in power either do not want to or are unable to do anything about it.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: justify;">The comparison with the dramatic fall of the Soviet Union however risks leading thoughts astray, as the challenges Russia currently is facing are of another character and dignity than was the case 20 years ago. The country instead is sick with a slow but fatal disease if not proper medication is administered. Here, the question is whether Putin and Medvedev are the right doctors.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">That we now see people take to the streets and squares on a scale not witnessed since the soviet demise in 1991 is on the surface a consequence of the farcical fraud that took place at the 4 December parliamentary elections. To an even higher degree, it bears witness of a growing popular realization of a profound systemic crisis and that the current regime is uncapable of assuming rising challenges. Power is not even capable of arranging election fraud without it becoming embarrassingly obvious how badly organizsed even the fraud is. For Russians in general it thereby stands beyond doubt that elections are primarily intended for the division of power within the reigning <em>United Russia</em> party and not even represents an approximate popular will. That is an arrogance of power that fewer and fewer Russians are willing to accept.</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">That a Google search under the Russian term of "party of crooks and thieves" ends up with <em>United Russia</em> as first result is as good an evidence as any of how corrupt the regime is considered. People are simply not prepared to go on along a road chosen that seems to go over the cliffs. The question is how strong and wide the public wrath is and if it is sufficient for continued and increased outdoor protests in sub-zero degrees when the Russian New Year approaches with party and leisure. Disconent with the system still remains and handling it may become a hard task for both Putin and Medvedev for the upcoming 4 March presidential elections. A lot may still happen before then.</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">What kind of a system is it then that has been constructed during the Putin era and now is questioned by an increasing number of people? Simplified, it is a classic trade-off between power and people. Political power is handed over to an elite in exchange for economic prosperity. From an ideological perspective, Russia's political system is very alarming in combination with a failure of power to deliver on its economic promises.</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">That civil rights and freedoms have been heavily limited over the last decade has probably been observed by most. These limitations are however not only systematic but depart from an interpretation of the constitution with very reactionary roots. The role ascribed to presidential power under Putin departed from the ideology of the reigning party <em>United Russia</em>, which then was called "sovereign democracy". </div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-4SsZBAKD0Fg/Tv46S8SpvTI/AAAAAAAAARo/WzDwkcWUIcs/s1600/VladislavSurkov_Reuters_380.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; cssfloat: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="150px" rea="true" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-4SsZBAKD0Fg/Tv46S8SpvTI/AAAAAAAAARo/WzDwkcWUIcs/s200/VladislavSurkov_Reuters_380.jpg" width="200px" /></a></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">The fundament is a system where the president - or sovereign - always has the final say. In its pure form, the president has the constant right to proclaim a state of emergency without democratic accountability.What constitutes a rule of exception, only the president is privy to determine. In essence, it is from this constitutional interpretation that the country's systematic limitations of civil rights and freedom should be perceived. In current Russia the Damocletian sword is constantly hanging over the heads of each and everyone who expresses a divergent view and opposition is considered extremism and an attempt to usurp state power.</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">Despite president Medvedev's skepticism towards this constitutional interpretation and a high measure of pragmatism in its implementation, it remains a political system practically applied. The practical reason is that supreme political power in Russia has been transformed into a role of arbiter between conflicting political and economic interests, which lack democratic legitimacy and mandate. It is in light of this that the reigning United Russia party should be considered a representation of disparate interests, where primarily Putin but also Medvedev have had to act as arbiters to preserve domestic peace among cynical actors only looking out for their own egotistical interests. As parliamentary elections were carried through, the main purpose was to divide power and positions between different interests within <em>United Russia</em> and not to allow for any expression of real public will.</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">Why then protest now, in connection to elections to an apparently powerless parliament, when elections for the mighty presidential office awaits in just a few months time? As the Russian electoral system has been designed, it constitutes a two-stage rocket, where parliamentary elections in December determines the division of power within <em>United Russia</em> and presidential elections in March decides who will act as arbiter during the coming six years. That an increasing number of Russians now rise against this system is thus not that strange, as the parliament by way of <em>United Russia</em> symbolizes the corrupt exercise of power felt in everyday life. Protests emanate more from the effects of the system than from its contents.</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">That the economic component of the trade-off between elite and people has failed is obvious. <em>United Russia's</em> urging the Russians to "enrich yourselves" has not been accompanied by such economic liberalizations that would allow for a wider popular enrichment. Against the background of growing corruption and bribery, today's Russian youth do not consider enterprise and entrepreneurship as a method to reach a reasonable living standard. Instead, the youth is encouraged to seek their livelihood by serving the state within the public sphere. That the future of the young generation would lie within the public sector however rests on the cynical perspective that the more people are corrupted the less will be the interest to upset the fundaments of the system. What stands out is a reality where on the one hand every public office may be purchased at a determined price and on the other hand that the citizens' price list to access public services is decided by the cost of appropriating a public office. As bureaucracy grows, corruption feeds itself and becomes <em>sui generis</em> in a way that lies beyond the bounds of any political exercise of power. In this context, the December parliamentary elections have become a symbol of the corruption and lawlessness, which means that many Russians have lost their fate in the future. </div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: justify;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-TJj7z9QtyWY/Tv5AzIPSobI/AAAAAAAAAR0/tem1mgZ6DtM/s1600/Medvedev_Putin.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; cssfloat: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="155px" rea="true" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-TJj7z9QtyWY/Tv5AzIPSobI/AAAAAAAAAR0/tem1mgZ6DtM/s200/Medvedev_Putin.jpg" width="200px" /></a>Considering the fragmented opposition and an almost total lack of political alternative, the political failure of Putin and Medvedev becomes evident. Basically, this failure consists of increasing differences between political vision and reality. Despite the image in the West of great limitations on societal discourse, the discussion of the great challenges Russia is confronting has been both extensive and nuanced, and pointed to both acute and necessary measures from area to area. Most Russians thus know what awaits during the coming years if not drastic and extensive measures are imposed. Putin, Medvedev, and <em>United Russia</em>, have also presented plan after plan, which though have fallen apart when confronted by realities. Plans may be great, but without the capability to implement them, they eventually just end up the object of ridicule. The system's principle for a divsion of power has simply left Russia without a competent and powerful leadership.</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: justify;">Here, primarily Putin has eroded the ground he himself is standing on by allowing for a leader cult of himself. In the official image, Putin is portrayed as the potent, enlightened and determined leader, while Medvedev represents the reform, development, and innovation that will lead Russia towards the future. The image of Putin as the strong-man has though gone so far that he as a person and politician increasingly stands out as almost ridiculous in confrontation with reality.</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: justify;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-orUvIcPNKjY/Tv5BIrutY0I/AAAAAAAAASA/OxnwN_ejeLc/s1600/russia_1224_01.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; cssfloat: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="131px" rea="true" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-orUvIcPNKjY/Tv5BIrutY0I/AAAAAAAAASA/OxnwN_ejeLc/s200/russia_1224_01.jpg" width="200px" /></a></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: justify;">The people of Russia is today met with a political leadership characterized by impotence and incapability - hopelessly dug down in attempts to balance the internal struggles of the elite over political and economic power. The power's message to the people seems to be: "Stay put in the sinking vessel!" That the people now asks "Can we live like this anymore?" - despite the absence of political alternatives - bears witness to the deep crisis of the system. The question is still if the Russians have concluded that "We cannot live like this anymore." Is it really the case that Russia is awakening out of its torpor by the realization that an authoritarian system cannot solve the challenges of the future?</div></div><div class="blogger-post-footer">Politics and security in Russia, Central and Eastern Europe, and Central Asia</div>Vilhelm Konnanderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09167606906861836286noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19791491.post-39774907339868587942011-12-01T22:03:00.001+01:002017-11-28T05:29:11.064+01:00Free the imprisoned Egyptian bloggers!<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-family: "tahoma" , sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 21px; text-align: justify;"><i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #eeeeee;">This call is being circulated by Swedish bloggers, and in Swedish Social Media, today. Please <a href="http://bloggarupprop.wordpress.com/free-bloggers/">join in</a>, repost or sign the petition!</span></i></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGEJrQ4ifV1Knq8hmIGihHTkQyzb3fsr7FNFqIIdT_3BvQYmmJqwX6Ild497NVlixbowhkpBGLrgYlTLq_MBFiiQkoGJf2toZmZanYToEIHRIz7RnxTMq6n1FoKSrID1Q2qMO9/s1600/propaganda.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em; text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: black;"><img border="0" height="166" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGEJrQ4ifV1Knq8hmIGihHTkQyzb3fsr7FNFqIIdT_3BvQYmmJqwX6Ild497NVlixbowhkpBGLrgYlTLq_MBFiiQkoGJf2toZmZanYToEIHRIz7RnxTMq6n1FoKSrID1Q2qMO9/s200/propaganda.png" width="200" /></span></a><b style="font-family: Tahoma, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 21px; text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #eeeeee;">In times when freedom of the press is suppressed and media controlled by government or other interests, the responsibility of pointing out wrong-doings, falls to the citizens. The civil journalism found on the internet form an integral engine for developing democracy in many countries. With blogs and other social media as their tools, they expose injustice and misconduct in the society, even when the media landscape is being completely controlled.</span></b></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "tahoma" , sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #eeeeee;">As the Arab Spring's historical events have shown, bloggers are not only citizen-journalists. With them they carry the hope of democracy, freedom and dignity to all. Freedom of speech on the internet, has become one of the most important dividing lines between dictatorship and democracy. Here you lift injustice and wrong-doings in the every-day life, and with the might of the pen you work towards change.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "tahoma" , sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #eeeeee;">In many places the situation, for those that are engaged in democratic change, has become increasingly difficult. Several countries imprison or persecute people that criticize their governments openly in social media. One example of this is the faith of the Egyptian bloggers Alaa Abd El Fattah and Maikel Nabil.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "tahoma" , sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #eeeeee;">Alaa Abd El Fattah is one of the main activists in the large and lively Egyptian blogosphere. In 2006 he was arrested, by the Mubarak regime, to set an example to other bloggers. Bloggers that critically discussed the things that happened in Egypt were regarded as a threat. Unfortunately nothing has changed and today the process of democratization is endangered by this.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "tahoma" , sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #eeeeee;">About a month ago, Alaa was imprisoned again. This time it was the ruling Military Council of Egypt. His time in captivity is prolonged by two weeks at a time, which causes his family great concern, and especially his pregnant wife. The process against him shows that the aim is to silence an important node in the movement for democracy in Egypt, before the election. Earlier this year this movement toppled the dictator Mubarak, and it is once again taking the protests out to the streets.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "tahoma" , sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #eeeeee;">Yet another civil rights activist, Maikel Nabil, has been in prison since the end of March this year, accused of distortion of the slogan of the Egyptian Military Council, 'the army and the people are one hand', at his blog. He discussed and criticized the development after the fall of Mubarak, under the heading "The army and the people are never one hand". This was interpreted by the regime as an attack on the system, and Maikel is now serving a three-year sentence for high treason.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "tahoma" , sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #eeeeee;">Alaa and Maikel are far from alone. In addition, they are used as warning examples to intimidate others not to challenge and criticize injustice, or speak in situations where others remains silent. In a democracy-under-construction, this is a sign of a dangerous development that the surrounding world ought to react on.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "tahoma" , sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #eeeeee;">We, the undersigned, have all, just as Alaa and Maikel, chosen to participate in the public conversation through blogs and other social media. We hope that more people wants to raise the issue of the importance of free speech, and show the surrounding world that we take notice and that we care. Freedom of speech and thought must be respected, and all bloggers that are being imprisoned because of their opinions must be freed immediately!</span></span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #eeeeee;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: "tahoma" , sans-serif;">Our message is clear:</span><span class="apple-converted-space" style="font-family: "tahoma" , sans-serif;"> </span><strong style="font-family: Tahoma, sans-serif;">Free the champions of free speech!</strong></span></div>
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<div class="blogger-post-footer">Politics and security in Russia, Central and Eastern Europe, and Central Asia</div>Vilhelm Konnanderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09167606906861836286noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19791491.post-24261024833086389102011-07-26T22:32:00.000+02:002011-07-26T22:32:03.618+02:00Belarus: East and West and Nothing in Between?<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPwDt7_VT1iYCDRg6_hyVaoSFqiJtxIawQD6S8IpfI1c1HAdXZWMWN61FR35eU43s4mRPhERtQ8B05bIe7b3IUY8HezOl-qJCeKzOJsLkv7PZTjiKtlfa1_KiYDfQRS4J9IGZE/s1600/Belarus-375x279.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em; text-align: justify;"><img border="0" height="147" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPwDt7_VT1iYCDRg6_hyVaoSFqiJtxIawQD6S8IpfI1c1HAdXZWMWN61FR35eU43s4mRPhERtQ8B05bIe7b3IUY8HezOl-qJCeKzOJsLkv7PZTjiKtlfa1_KiYDfQRS4J9IGZE/s200/Belarus-375x279.jpg" width="200" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #b6d7a8;">For <i><a href="http://globalvoicesonline.org/2011/07/25/belarus-east-and-west-and-nothing-in-between/">Global Voices Online</a>:</i></span> "East is East and West is West, and never the twain shall meet." This chronically misused Kipling phrase seems to catch realities for an increasing number of Belarusians, as <a href="http://globalvoicesonline.org/2011/06/24/belarus-police-crack-down-on-minsk-protest/">recent</a> <a href="http://globalvoicesonline.org/2011/07/06/belarus-independence-day-clapping-protest/">protests</a> and crises have become a rude awakening from the torpor of the last Soviet "sleeping beauty." Waking to a wild and hostile world, many people now start asking: "Who cares about Belarus?"</b></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Coverage found in the Western media of the recent developments in Belarus largely follows the general pattern of repression, with a few opposition activists highlighted, but still with little added to the familiar story. It is true that the economic crisis that has recently hit the country and Russia's gradual takeover of Belarus' economy have added spice to the stew, whilst the ultimate news would be the ousting of President Lukashenko.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Until that day, though, Belarus seems deemed to remain in limbo between East and West. Or would Lukashenko or no Lukashenko really make a difference? An increasing number of voices in Belarus say that the limbo will linger on, and Belarus is bound to remain in a grey zone between East and West.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Thus, LiveJournal user <em>by_volunteer</em> <a href="http://by-politics.livejournal.com/3337670.html">complains</a> [ru] that the country's economy is sold out to Russia, whereas Europe has enough problems of her own to trouble to care:</div><blockquote><div style="text-align: justify;">Беларусь пошла с молотка и это очевидный конец. Руководство Беларуси заключило сделку и тихонько распродаёт страну, в расчёте на политическое убежище, все наши ура-патриоты спокойно на это смотрят. Основные предприятия страны переходят в собственность к России, это российские капиталовложения в нашу собственность. Как можно это допустить и как может ЕС так спокойно упускать свои перспективы на будущее в Беларуси?! Это же полный провал европейской политики, тем более в ЕС нарастает огромный финансовый кризис, европейский бизнес девать просто некуда. Это немощный инфантилизм и позор, нельзя допускать завершения сделки с Россией, это огромная ошибка, нужно срочно принимать меры!</div></blockquote><div class="translation"><blockquote style="text-align: justify;">Belarus went under [the auctioneer's] hammer and it was a foregone conclusion. The leaders of Belarus made a deal and are quietly selling off the country, counting on political asylum, and all our hooray-patriots calmly look at it. The main enterprises of the country are becoming Russian property. It is a Russian investment in our property. How can this be allowed, and how can the EU so calmly give up on its views on Belarus?! It is simply a total collapse of European policy, especially as an enourmous financial crisis is brewing in the EU, and European business simply has nowhere to turn. It is powerless infantilism and a shame. Оne cannot allow dealing with Russia. It's a big mistake, and urgent action is needed!</blockquote></div><div style="text-align: justify;">But where is Europe, and where is justice? Feelings of abandonment and, for all appearances, being treated unfairly are obviously spreading, adding to a sense of general disappointment and hopelessness in everyday life and in hopes for the future. Writing about a denial of an EU-Schengen visa for her son, a mother <a href="http://minsk-by.livejournal.com/7506554.html">laments</a> [ru] over how she feels people from Belarus are regarded:</div><blockquote><div style="text-align: justify;">Нет правды в Беларуси. Десятки лет мы получаем лживую информацию, слышим безответственные обещания, видим потемкинские деревни. Наелись. Все цивилизованные страны единодушны в оценке и называют такое поведение властей издевательством над народом. Но как оценить издевательство над многострадальными гражданами посольств этих цивилизованных стран, когда после заявлений о смягчении визовых режимов для белорусов, отказывают в визе даже тем белорусам, которые по всем критериям очень даже выездные. [---] Мой сын закончил третий курс университета. Хотел съездить во Францию по частному приглашению. Получил отказ. Поскольку ничего плохого за ним никогда не водилось, единственной причиной отказа считаю административный арест 19 декабря на 15 суток. Он проходит по спискам и, скорее всего, поэтому посольство Франции ответило: «У нас нет уверенности, что вы покинете страну по истечению срока визы». Интересно получается. Два списка фигурируют для запрета въезда в Евросоюз: официальный - список чиновников и неофициальный список задержанных. [---] И стало, знаете, очень обидно. И очень одиноко. И за демократию бьют по голове, и демократия бьет по голове. И никому мы не нужны. Ладно бы не нужны – и на порог не пускают. А главное, никакими демократическими процедурами это решение не оспорить. Где справедливость, где права человека, какие гаагские суды рассматривают отказы в выдаче визы? Какие правозащитные организации защищают таких людей? А главное, отличается ли белорусская судья, превентивно выносящая приговор за несовершенное правонарушение, от французского чиновника, отказывающего в визе за несостоявшийся невозврат?</div></blockquote><div class="translation"><blockquote style="text-align: justify;">There is no truth in Belarus. For decades, we have been getting a pack of lies, listening to irresponsible promises, seeing the Potemkin villages. We are fed up with it. All civilized countries unite in their judgment and name such conduct of power a mockery with the people. But how is such mockery with the long-suffering citizens valued by embassies of these civilized countries, when - after declarations of a softened visa regime for Belarusians - visas are denied even to those Belarusans who really by all criteria are liable for them. [---] My son finished his third year at university, and wanted to go to France on a private invitation. He got a rejection [to his visa application]. As he has never been up to anything bad, the only reason for rejection, I think, is the administrative [<a href="http://globalvoicesonline.org/2010/12/19/belarus-presidential-election-day-ends-in-protests-and-crackdown/">post-election protest</a>-related] arrest on December 19 for 15 days. He is on the lists, and therefore, supposedly, the French Embassy replied: «We don't know if you leave the country after your visa expires». It all becomes interesting. There appears to be two lists for denial of entry to the European Union: An official - the bureaucrats' list - and an unofficial list of those who had been arrested. [---] And then, you know, it becomes really hurtful. And very lonely. Getting hit on the head for democracy, and then getting hit on the head by democracy. Nobody needs us. It's okay if we are not needed, and not let over the threshold. But the main thing is that there are no democratic procedures by which to appeal this decision. Where is justice, where are human rights, which Hague courts review the denials of visas? What civil rights organizations defend these people? And above all, does a Belarusian judge, who preventively passes verdict for a crime not committed, differ from a French bureaucrat, who denies a visa for a non-return that has not taken place?</blockquote></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Touching on the classical Tolstoian question of the evil inside us all and the need to come to terms with it, LJ user <em>dolka777</em> <a href="http://dolka777.livejournal.com/59286.html">asks</a> [ru] how people allowed the Lukashenko regime to develop:</div><blockquote><div style="text-align: justify;">Как мы вскормили диктатора. Это вопрос, который я себе задаю постоянно. Мучительно вспоминаю, как и когда я сама впустила в себя эту диктатуру. Свято верю, что в каждой судьбе должен быть такой момент, когда ты соглашаешься со злом только потому, что твой двоюродный брат работает в КГБ и он – клевый парень, а тебе не хочется его обижать. Или хвастаешься другом, который парится в парилке с личным сантехником Его Величества. Шугаешься коллег или сокурсников, которые связаны с оппозицией. Думаю, что здесь, в бай-политикс собрались те, которые, возможно, ничего такого не делали. Но все же. [---] И теперь вопрос каждому: что ты лично сделал для того, чтобы в Беларуси воцарился диктатор?</div></blockquote><div class="translation"><blockquote style="text-align: justify;">How did we nourish a dictator? It's a question I ask myself all the time. It is painful to remember how and when I, myself, let this dictatorship in. I sincerely believe that in every destiny there has to be such a moment when you consent to evil only because your cousin works for the KGB, and he is a cool guy and you don't want to hurt his feelings. Or you boast about a friend who has steamed in the same sauna as His Highness. You vilify those colleagues or classmates who are connected with the opposition. I believe that here, in the .by-politics, those have gathered who perhaps did nothing like this. But still. And now a question to each and everyone: What have you personally done so that a dictator could reign in Belarus?</blockquote></div><div style="text-align: justify;">So, as the shrill voices of Lukashenko loyalists and opposition activists reach crescendo, perhaps there are weaker voices wondering why they cannot simply be allowed to be here, "tuteishi", and lead a normal life between Russia and Europe.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Kipling's famous poem on East and West has a less-known ending: "But there is neither East nor West, Border, nor Breed, nor Birth, When two strong men stand face to face, though they come from the ends of the earth!"</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">So, even if Russia and Europe, as two strong men, would learn to respect each other, where would that leave Belarus but in a grey zone? Perhaps, for many Belarusians, East is East and West is West, and there is no place for the rest, living in between.</div></div><div class="blogger-post-footer">Politics and security in Russia, Central and Eastern Europe, and Central Asia</div>Vilhelm Konnanderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09167606906861836286noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19791491.post-31662749659339175842011-07-12T15:59:00.002+02:002011-07-13T11:12:41.225+02:00Russia: Cruiser Catastrophe Causes Questions<div style="text-align: justify;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEht59i9hAt-tBMfUknJ0X1hqAzW_e0PTR61mrluqt8ewDpggiCiUY4w6v2Hj7E1tSFgy6ACUbANkCtKWJRyUSiYg-GqO34n71hkxwaUAN1pYBWl_lWFJJ17OLwS54nrB1DQs0lK/s1600/Save+our+souls.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEht59i9hAt-tBMfUknJ0X1hqAzW_e0PTR61mrluqt8ewDpggiCiUY4w6v2Hj7E1tSFgy6ACUbANkCtKWJRyUSiYg-GqO34n71hkxwaUAN1pYBWl_lWFJJ17OLwS54nrB1DQs0lK/s200/Save+our+souls.jpg" width="200" /></a><b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #b6d7a8;">For <i><a href="http://globalvoicesonline.org/">Global Voice Online</a>:</i></span> As casualty numbers rise from Sundays' ferry catastrophe on the river Volga, Russians have come to the bitter realization of yet another tragedy, with a death-toll of well over a hundred people. As usual, news of deplorable conditions are brought to public attention, causing popular anger and indignation, but this time these feelings almost seem to outdo those of sympathy with the victims and their relatives, as the Russian blogosphere reacts to the tragedy.</b></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">On Sunday afternoon, July 10, 2011, the "Bulgariya" cruise-ship capsized on the Kuibyshev dam of the Volga river. According to <a href="http://mchs.tatarstan.ru/spisok.htm">official figures</a> [ru], 129 passengers are still missing and have supposedly perished in the waves.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">How people react to disaster and catastrophe is often quite telling of the times and circumstances they live in, and what they expect from the future. In disaster-ridden Russia, such tragic events are often an opportunity to display national unity in commemoration of the victims, which people usually show great respect and reverence to. Thus, President Dmitry Medvedev <a href="http://xn--d1abbgf6aiiy.xn--p1ai/%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B8/11889">declared</a> [ru] 12 July, 2011, a national day of mourning.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Still, reading Russia's blogosphere, the sense of national foreboding seems to overshadow that of mourning, as - for many bloggers - the sunk vessel comes to symbolize the future fate of Russia.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRpaxepJ78UUegxvI9Uxg_H0ZD1w10MN907zrAVyuDS-UMvvWGn31lfbt-nyZoddWW7ZE15WWGKRkQN1Y1w0Uj-zASCqLij6zGN_TAELsiERlMgTrnkV0Jo2x5EIgefO5Z2n29/s1600/ShipBulgaria.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="168" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRpaxepJ78UUegxvI9Uxg_H0ZD1w10MN907zrAVyuDS-UMvvWGn31lfbt-nyZoddWW7ZE15WWGKRkQN1Y1w0Uj-zASCqLij6zGN_TAELsiERlMgTrnkV0Jo2x5EIgefO5Z2n29/s200/ShipBulgaria.jpg" width="200" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;">At first though, the deplorable state of the ship was a subject of intense discussion, both in mainstream media and on blogs. Whereas information is diverse and varies, the overall impression is that of a floating coffin. The relatively moderate - and changing - data on the Bulgariya on Russian <a href="http://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%91%D1%83%D0%BB%D0%B3%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%B8%D1%8F_(%D1%82%D0%B5%D0%BF%D0%BB%D0%BE%D1%85%D0%BE%D0%B4)">Wikipedia</a> [ru] is quite telling: Built in 1955, no waterproof bulkheads, no major overhauls, name-change last year, low lateral stability, leaving port with a 5 percent starboard list, left engine out of order, 208 people on board instead of the assigned 140 maximum; all in all led it to sink in merely three minutes.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">One does not have to be a sailor to see that "Bulgariya" was not seaworthy, and one can only imagine the number of hurdles the people running it must have jumped to get it past naval safety inspection and other controls.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Feelings of anger and wrath are also raging among bloggers. <em>Voices from Russia</em> <a href="http://02varvara.wordpress.com/2011/07/11/11-july-2011-breaking-news-tragedy-on-the-volga-sinking-of-the-cruise-ship-%E2%80%9Cbulgariya%E2%80%9D/">expresses</a> the many demands for vengeance, but also exploits the tragedy in calling for a more authoritarian Russia:</div><blockquote><div style="text-align: justify;">Suffice it to say, heads are gonna roll as a result of this. The responsible parties are gonna get learned, kiddies… they’re going to absorb the full meaning and implications of каторга (katorga: forced labour) in Correctional Colony 1313 in the Sakha Republic… or, they’ll have the pleasure of the multifarious joys of Correctional Colony 3131 on Cape Anadyr. They fought the law and the law won! It ain’t nice to fool around with Papa VVP… things tend to happen (like bustin’ rocks under the Arctic sun). It’s not like the Republican Wonderland of Texas… where Kenneth Lay of Enron fame (pal of GWB and loudmouthed Born-again “Christian”) didn’t serve a day in prison. You can have an attitude like Russia’s, where miscreant businessmen go to jail… or, you can have an attitude like Texas, where buccaneer businessmen are coddled. In 2012, you can choose… choose well… for you’ll not get a “second chance”.</div></blockquote><div style="text-align: justify;">Contrary to this, a great number of bloggers show distrust towards government authority, pointing to its recorded pattern of bad information management even when confronted by obvious crises and disasters. Thus, initial official information of the Bulgariya catastrophe spoke of an accident but no casualties.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">An early comment, by LJ user <em>999allan999</em> responds to this simply by <a href="http://999allan999.livejournal.com/474607.html">presenting</a> [ru] a number of assorted news items on the accident with the suggestive title:</div><blockquote><div style="text-align: justify;">Как обычно. Сначала официально-бодрое «жертв нет»…</div></blockquote><blockquote><div style="text-align: justify;">As usual. At first the officially cheerful «no victims»...</div></blockquote><div style="text-align: justify;">LiveJournal user <em>shri_boomer</em> - a naval officer himself - <a href="http://shri-boomer.livejournal.com/121953.html?thread=11859297">relates</a> [ru] to this, but also voices his loathing of the people on passing ships who filmed the Bulgaria's drowning passengers:</div><blockquote><div style="text-align: justify;">Во время этой трагедии, поразила не только неспособность государства, дать какую-то вразумительную информацию обществу, но и то, что мимо тонущего судна спокойно проходили другие теплоходы, а люди стоявшие на палубе снимали трагедию на видеокамеры и телефоны. Эта дикость, от которой мурашки бегут по коже, свидетельствует только об одном: люди настолько зачерствели, что перестали быть людьми.</div></blockquote><div class="translation"><blockquote style="text-align: justify;">During this tragedy, I was struck not only by the state's incapacity of providing society with some sort of intelligible information, but also that other ships silently passed by the sinking ship, and people stood on deck filming the tragedy with video cameras and [mobile] phones. This is a savagery that makes one feel like ants are running across one's skin, and only testifies to one thing: People have become so petrified, that they have ceased to be human.</blockquote></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Recollecting merely the most recent disasters, <em>shri_boomer</em> <a href="http://shri-boomer.livejournal.com/121953.html?thread=11859297">goes on</a> [ru] criticizing the government's tendency to write off everything that does not work and increase control of that which still seems to work, although nobody will obey:</div><blockquote><div style="text-align: justify;">Налицо все признаки того, что питерская ОПГ, теряет контроль в управлении страной [---]. Каждый день государственная власть поражает нас новшествами по усилению безопасности граждан и обустройству России.</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Взорвалась бомба в Домодедово – досмотр пассажиров ужесточить, Домодедово отобрать. [---]</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Списать самолеты «Ан», списать вертолеты Ми-8, списать речной флот. Да, что там, списать устаревшего девяносто процентов трамвайно-тролейбусного парка страны, десятки тысяч автобусов, миллионы километров водопроводных труб и линий передач, сотни ТЭЦ и ГЭС. Все это нужно списать, а досмотр пользователей ужесточить. [---]</div><div style="text-align: justify;">После всего этого можно будет списать население. И тогда наступит настоящий День Траура. Жаль только, что соблюдать его будет некому, ибо придет Время Троглодитов.</div></blockquote><div class="translation"><blockquote><div style="text-align: justify;">There is every evidence of the St. Petersburg gang losing control of managment over the country [---]. Each day state power introduces new measures to strengthen the security of its citizens and to upgrade Russia.</div><div style="text-align: justify;">A bomb exploded at Domodedovo [airport] - stricter passenger control, and closing Domodedovo.</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Writing off «An» aircraft, writing off Mi-8 helicopters, writing off the river fleet. Yes, and in addition, to write off the obsolete 90 per cent of the tram and trolley-bus fleet of the country, tens of thousands of buses, millions of kilometres of water pipes and transmission lines, hundreds of power stations and hydro-electric plants. All this needs to be written off, and control of users tightened. [---]</div><div style="text-align: justify;">After all this, one might as well write off the population. And then we will have a real Day of Mourning. It's a pity only, that no-one will observe this, or [if they will] then comes the time of the Troglodytes.</div></blockquote></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Drawing on similar sentiments, LiveJournal user dr_lunikoff <a href="http://dr-lunikoff.livejournal.com/322903.html?thread=1321815">compares</a> [ru] the era of the Soviet demise with today's situation:</div><blockquote><div style="text-align: justify;">В связи с этим вспомнился стишок 1989 года, который ходил тогда у нас по рукам и из-за которого нас чуть из школы не выгнали. Стишок был выучен наизусть (чтоб не быть пойманным с крамолой на руках), потому и запомнился. Он описывал самые заметные ужасы катастройки (в частности, гибель теплохода "Адмирал Нахимов" в 1986 году) и до ужаса был похож на сегодняшние реалии:</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Утопили пароход,</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Пропустили самолет,</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Наркоманов развели,</div><div style="text-align: justify;">СПИД в Россию завезли</div><div style="text-align: justify;">И какая-то пи..да</div><div style="text-align: justify;">С рельсов валит поезда...</div></blockquote><div class="translation"><blockquote><div style="text-align: justify;">Relating to this, I came to think of a small poem from 1989, which then passed from hand to hand and almost got us thrown out of school. The poem was learnt by heart (so that they could not catch us with sedition on our palms), and therefore I remember it. It described the most notable horrors of katastroika [combined catastrophy and perestroika], (especially the loss of the ship "Admiral Nakhimov" in 1986) and is terrifyingly similar to today's realities. </div><div style="text-align: justify;">A ship sank,</div><div style="text-align: justify;">A plane was lost,</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Addicts spread,</div><div style="text-align: justify;">AIDS was brought to Russia,</div><div style="text-align: justify;">And whatever f...ing else</div><div style="text-align: justify;">And the trains are sliding off the rails...</div></blockquote><div style="text-align: justify;">Finally, Viktor Perfilov of <em>Kazanskie vedomosti</em> <a href="http://viktor-perfilov.livejournal.com/28633.html">sums up</a> [ru] the feelings:</div></div><blockquote><div style="text-align: justify;">Я невольно вспоминаю ту известную фразу Путина о АПЛ "Курск", хотя в то время мне и 10 лет не было</div><div style="text-align: justify;">- Что случилось с Вашей лодкой?</div><div style="text-align: justify;">- Она утонула</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">А Медведев пока не нашел, что сказать на сей счёт. Системный кризис [---] проявляется всё больше, а положение лучше не становится. И лучше при нынешней ситуации вряд ли станет...</div></blockquote><div class="translation"><blockquote><div style="text-align: justify;">I cannot help recalling Putin's famous phrase about the submarine "Kursk", even if I wasn't even ten at the time:</div><div style="text-align: justify;">- What happened with your boat?</div><div style="text-align: justify;">- It sank.</div><div style="text-align: justify;">And Mededev has still not found out what to say about this. The systemic crisis is increasingly evident, and the situation is not getting any better. And under current circumstances, it is not likely to.</div></blockquote></div><div class="blogger-post-footer">Politics and security in Russia, Central and Eastern Europe, and Central Asia</div>Vilhelm Konnanderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09167606906861836286noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19791491.post-40433490236948786052011-05-26T15:56:00.001+02:002011-07-13T11:13:10.588+02:00Arrest of Ratko Mladic<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"><div style="text-align: justify;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwloUvwRokNT6ENI3SxtY_ULNZf_t5y7Q0WkUDjQUl_iDvTg5RPKve1dFy3eq8ro8rgjtbShmTryr6erg6FnrvqPEAudu49OR7xbNiYo-2HXcnRdRb3KCJCrP1cXNVa9uVC0_C/s1600/Evstafiev-ratko-mladic-1993-w.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; cssfloat: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwloUvwRokNT6ENI3SxtY_ULNZf_t5y7Q0WkUDjQUl_iDvTg5RPKve1dFy3eq8ro8rgjtbShmTryr6erg6FnrvqPEAudu49OR7xbNiYo-2HXcnRdRb3KCJCrP1cXNVa9uVC0_C/s200/Evstafiev-ratko-mladic-1993-w.jpg" t8="true" width="194px" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #b6d7a8;">For <em><a href="http://globalvoicesonline.org/">Global Voices:</a></em></span> Ratko Mladic, former Bosnian Serb military leader was arrested today by police in Serbia, the country's president, Boris Tadic, confirmed on national television. General Mladic has been on the run since 1995 facing charges of genocide for his role as Bosnian Serb military commander during the 1992-95 civil war in Bosnia-Herzegovina. Mladic will now most likely be extradicted to face charges at the UN war crimes tribunal in the Hague, Netherlands. Initial blogger reactions are mostly jubilant.</strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
It is with a sense of relief and disbelief that many Bosnians and Serbs alike today learn about the arrest of Bosnian Serb general Ratko Mladic, charged with genocide and war crimes during the 1992-95 civil war in Bosnia-Herzegovina. The arrest of Ratko Mladic may come as a surprise to many, but international pressure has been building in recent years that Serbian authorities finally bring the general to justice.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Living with the memory of loved ones massacred or mutilated by warring parties while perpetrators are still at large remains an additional trauma for families regardless of sides in the conflict. For many, the collapse of Yugoslavia along ethnic and religious divides proved a rude awakening as the peoples of Europe stood helpless witnesses to indiscriminate violence and crime on a scale the continent had not seen since the Second World War. Memories and traumas live on in Bosnia, and as long as criminals are not brought to justice, there will be no release from the agonies of aggression. Thus, Sarah Correia of <em>Café Turco</em> <a href="http://cafeturco.wordpress.com/2011/05/26/mladic-arrested/">describes</a> the situation:</div><div style="text-align: justify;"></div><blockquote>I am in Kozarac now, a place razed to the ground in May 1992. I went to Trnopolje today for a commemoration, and I could see in people’s faces the pain. But then I came back to Kozarac and got the news. Tears of joy in everyone’s eyes, and a feeling of disbelief, that a moment in which nobody believed has come.</blockquote><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">Still, suspicions that Serbian authorities have for long been complicit in hiding Mladic or at least turning a blind eye to his whereabouts linger on. Consequently, one of the first questions facing the Serbian president, Boris Tadic, was why the law did not catch up with Mladic earlier, <a href="http://asliceofserbianpolitics.wordpress.com/2011/05/26/ratko-mladic-arrested/">as told</a> by Sladjana Lazic of <em>A Slice Of Serbian Politics</em>: </div><div style="text-align: justify;"></div><blockquote>Asked why Mladic was not arrested five years ago, Tadic added that there will be an investigation about that, and if the investigation proves that people from the Government or state structures were responsible for interferences with that process, they will be prosecuted as well. Tadic also said that Mladic would be extradited to the United Nations war crimes tribunal but did not specify when, only saying that “an extradition process is under way”.</blockquote><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">In this context, the issue of alleged war criminals on the loose has long been running havoc to Serbian prospects for membership in the European Union, and it seems it has become a <em>cause célèbre</em> to the point that Serbian authorites simply had to catch Mladic. Commenting on this, <em>Sleeping With Pengovsky</em> <a href="http://www.pengovsky.com/2011/05/26/ratko-mladic-found-and-captured/">writes</a>: </div><div style="text-align: justify;"></div><blockquote>The arrest of war crimes fugitive Ratko Mladić comes at an extremely crucial moment for Serbia. At a time when Croatia is apparently on the verge of having been given a fixed date for EU entry, when Chief Prosecutor at the Hague Tribunal Serge Brammertz said that Serbia has not done nearly enough to catch the two main remaining war criminals (Mladić and Goran Hadžić), at the time when the EU is considering reintroducing visas for some Balkan countries including, apparently, Serbia, it would seem that Belgrade had no choice but to take the issue of general Ratko Mladić off the table.</blockquote><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">No matter what the feelings and sentiments may be today in Bosnia and Serbia, the arrest is an opportunity both to move on towards a brighter future and a means to better grasp the tragedy of recent history. At the end of the day victims of war and terror in former Yugoslavia may now rest in greater peace and dignity than only yesterday. What a difference a day makes.</div></div><div class="blogger-post-footer">Politics and security in Russia, Central and Eastern Europe, and Central Asia</div>Vilhelm Konnanderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09167606906861836286noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19791491.post-30128133020972655942011-04-13T08:58:00.003+02:002011-07-13T11:13:38.741+02:00Belarus Beyond Bomb or Blast<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #b6d7a8;">For <em><a href="http://globalvoicesonline.org/2011/04/12/belarus-beyond-bomb-or-blast/">Global Voices:</a></em></span> Even before the smoke from Monday's Minsk Metro blast dispersed, the dual question of: "What is to be done? - Who is to blame?" arose in the Belarusian blogosphere. Two major strands of thought dominate, blaming either President Lukashenko or the political opposition, although a deeper sentiment of sympathy for the victims seems to unite the people of Minsk.</strong> </div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: justify;"><a href="http://globalvoicesonline.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/minsk-metro-blast.jpg" style="clear: right; cssfloat: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><strong><img alt="" class="size-medium wp-image-216687" height="120px" src="http://globalvoicesonline.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/minsk-metro-blast-375x226.jpg" title="minsk-metro-blast" width="200px" /></strong></a>The Monday <a href="http://globalvoicesonline.org/2011/04/12/belarus-reactions-to-subway-explosion/"><strong>explosion in a subway station in Belarus capital Minsk</strong></a> is undoubtedly the largest act of violence in Belarus since World War II, leaving tens dead and some hundred injured. Understandably, people in the usually tranquil country reacted with both loathing and anguish, perhaps as a premonition of a shattered social fabric. Still, initial reactions from the blogosphere largely grasped at the question of who was to blame.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Although oppositional voices vary in passing the blame on Lukashenko and his regime, the overall impression is that this is what such a repressive system produces, by mechanisms of defunct societal interaction. LJ user <em>svobodoff</em>, for example, <a href="http://svobodoff.livejournal.com/37066.html">thinks that</a> [ru] "the explosion has covered the regime in blood":</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><blockquote><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiT-WfZ30bCB82jthiXJbI1A21wZbAaVgY6ZWFTMS4rpy-YBBMXGUsFF0iq_2yBwwVNWnZjOoaDakhBJwqrQ2AcgNQ2iymDuhjQiPjtVWXF29OfFmOfBM4ByZVTSYWO2Te_yA1/s1600/logo.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; cssfloat: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200px" i8="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiT-WfZ30bCB82jthiXJbI1A21wZbAaVgY6ZWFTMS4rpy-YBBMXGUsFF0iq_2yBwwVNWnZjOoaDakhBJwqrQ2AcgNQ2iymDuhjQiPjtVWXF29OfFmOfBM4ByZVTSYWO2Te_yA1/s200/logo.jpg" width="200px" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Такого кошмара люди в относительно спокойной когда-то Белоруссии от режима Лукашенко ещё не ожидали. Последние несколько лет существования диктатуры преподносили много неприятных "сюрпризов" для миролюбивых белорусов, но никто не думал, что это может зайти так далеко.</div></blockquote><div class="translation" style="text-align: justify;">"Such a nightmare, the people of the previously relatively peaceful Belarus had not expected from Lukashenko's regime. The last few years of the dictatorship's existence have heralded many unpleasant "surprises" for peace-loving Belarusans, but nobody thought that it would go this far."</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Bloggers loyal to the regime reacted with vehemence against any attempts to pin the blame on the Lukashenko regime, as <a href="http://community.livejournal.com/by_politics/3047602.html">LJ user <em>lyavon</em></a> did [ru]:</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><blockquote><div style="text-align: justify;">Не успел рассеяться дым от взрыва, как в интернете словно по команде появились сотни постов с обвинениями в адрес властей... авторам уже все ясно - виноват опять президент. Злобная Петра на минскбае, засучив рукава, банит всех, кто пытается высказать мнение, отличающееся от утвержденного из Вашингтона. Просто п[---]ц, у этих свиней нет никакой совести... Люди! Одумайтесь!!! Нельзя так бесстыдно использовать чужие страдания!!!</div><div style="text-align: justify;">зы: судя по всему, это попытка разыграть египетский сценарий... сейчас будут призывать идти на плошчу и тд и тп...</div></blockquote><div class="translation" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: justify;">"The smoke from the explosion had not even settled, before hundreds of posts, as if by command, appeared on the Internet with accusations directed towards the government... For the authors, everything was already clear - the president is once again to blame. Like a vicious Peter on Minskby [Minsk web community], with sleeves rolled up, banning everyone, who tries to express an opinion, which diverts from the one stipulated by Washington. It is simply **** that these swines have no conscience... People! Come to your senses!!! One should not so shamelessly exploit others' misery!!!</div><div class="translation" style="text-align: justify;">P.S. By all apperances, this is an attempt to unfold an Egyptian scenario... Now they will urge [us] to take to the square and so on..."</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">But there are also reactions against the polarization of interpretations. Thus, LJ user <em>khatskevich</em> <a href="http://community.livejournal.com/by_politics/3049679.html">writes</a> [ru]:</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><blockquote><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7Zx8JTlPiTHFMwFhJW5zOeq1nlSK7YUoB1URTGtQrsCdR6WzutbYobTW4JtbYKetVGPme96YEZ40EeW2U3y_hhUxIcDsiJSQiU0iH-tngGUw5Dkau8pZ_cjrXuLy9fyiQ3Urn/s1600/img161-375x281.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; cssfloat: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="149px" i8="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7Zx8JTlPiTHFMwFhJW5zOeq1nlSK7YUoB1URTGtQrsCdR6WzutbYobTW4JtbYKetVGPme96YEZ40EeW2U3y_hhUxIcDsiJSQiU0iH-tngGUw5Dkau8pZ_cjrXuLy9fyiQ3Urn/s200/img161-375x281.jpg" width="200px" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Вчера произошло два ужасных события. Теракт и реакция на него. Страшно подумать – буквально не успели кровь смыть, как в блогах и твиттере прогрессивная общественность уже стала делать выводы и бросать обвинения. Оппозиция винила власть и белорусские спецслужбы, лоялисты винили оппозицию и зарубежные спецслужбы. Смешалось в кучу всё – доллары, сахар, Ливия – всё, что могло послужить хоть каким-то обоснованием пропаганды. [...] Лично мне кажется, что все эти домыслы и взаимные обвинения похожи на то, как если бы блогеры сбегали на Октябрьскую, перемазались в крови жертв, и стали бы кричать всякие лозунги, типа «это кровь жертв режима!» или «эту кровь пролили отморозки из пятой колонны» [...]. Люди, вам не стыдно? Да, мы по разные стороны политических баррикад. Но разве это повод уподобляться всякой нелюди и устраивать пиар своих идей на крови жертв теракта? Мы что, не в состоянии отбросить идеологические противоречия в эти страшные дни и просто побыть людьми?</div></blockquote><div class="translation" style="text-align: justify;">"Yesterday, two terrible events occured. The terror act and the reaction to it. It is awful to think, but the blood had literally not been washed away before the progressive public already began to draw conclusions and make accusations. The opposition blamed the government and Belarusian special services, the loyalists blamed the opposition and foreign special services. Everything was mixed up in a nice heap - dollars, sugar, Libya - everything that could serve as any basis for propaganda. [...] Personally, I think that all these speculations and mutual accusations are as if bloggers ran down to Oktyabrskaya, smeared with the blood of the victims, and began to call out such type of slogans as "this is the blood of the regime's victims!" or "this blood was shed by the thugs of the fifth column" [...] People, are you not ashamed of yourselves? Yes, we may stand on opposite sides of the political barricades. But is this really a reason to characterize everyone as inhumane and make PR for your ideas by the blood of an act of terror? Are we not able to set aside ideological contradictions during these terrible days and simply be people?"</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"></div><div style="text-align: justify;">By the end of the day, perhaps some of the last sentiments may prove closest to the truth. It seems that people are simply fed up with the classical duality of "What is to be done? - Who is to blame?" when things go wrong. What this means for Belarus, only the future can tell, but at least it may be a sign of fatigue from the polarized divide between repression and resistance in the country.</div></div><div class="blogger-post-footer">Politics and security in Russia, Central and Eastern Europe, and Central Asia</div>Vilhelm Konnanderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09167606906861836286noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19791491.post-34959866065570454422010-09-29T15:27:00.004+02:002010-09-29T15:30:27.627+02:00Lights out Luzhkov<div style="text-align: justify;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwjEfXYRbZcyV1ttAN__S1cxLw0WPSUAy3kyJPdDnv0C_Qj20hkaP7XH1OvThGoH1ONmDMLoXVoNzE8tFKhsrBHFzWm-W8UDkglgEeAAVfRWgvS9wr04BuMiAzXs-oRa17PP1_/s1600/1272962584.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; cssfloat: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="134" px="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwjEfXYRbZcyV1ttAN__S1cxLw0WPSUAy3kyJPdDnv0C_Qj20hkaP7XH1OvThGoH1ONmDMLoXVoNzE8tFKhsrBHFzWm-W8UDkglgEeAAVfRWgvS9wr04BuMiAzXs-oRa17PP1_/s200/1272962584.jpg" width="200" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Driving past the Moscow mayor's office at night in the early 1990s, lights were always on in Mayor Popov's office. During the turbulent times back in 1991-92, this was meant as a sign to Muscovites that at least someone struggled to get things back on course. As usual, the paradox of doing the impossible merely resulted in a plethora of Popov anecdotes. Now, lights have gone out for his successor, Yuri Luzhkov, and as a conflict unveils before the eyes of an amazed public, interpretations of it as part of a general Russian power struggle for the 2012 presidential elections risk becoming anecdotical. To avoid this, my advice is simple: Follow the money!</strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">That Luzhkov's position was precarious has been evident since this summer's wild fires covering the Russian capital in smoke for weeks. Still, one should not forget that his dismissal has been longer in the making than most would care to remember. The struggle between Russia's two capitals, Muscovites and Pitertsy, is a major theme in Russian politics, that also Putin's road to power is part of. As a protegé of erstwhile St. Petersburg mayor, Anatoly Sobchak, Putin is likely never to forget how instrumental Muscovite interests were for defeating Sobchak back in 1996, and the dire consequences this had for himself. Ever since, the Pitertsy have been longing to get back at Luzhkov, barely succeeding to keep him at bay in the 2000 presidential elections that brought Putin to the Kremlin. Of course, this is common knowledge for anyone following Russia. What is interesting is how little this has been the focus of attention recently. Instead, Luzhkov's dismissal is predominantly interpreted as part of a struggle between Medvedev and Putin for the 2012 presidential elections.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Of course, as Gazprom-owned TV-channel NTV led the campaign against Luzhkov, it is easy to draw the conclusion that Medvedev, still retaining power over Gazprom, pushed the button, which is likely also the case. Does this mean that Putin was against ousting Luzhkov, as part of some ongoing duel between himself and Medvedev? Well, there is reason for skepticism to such arguments, even though they currently seem at sway. As much as there are contrasting interests between Putin and Medvedev - as in any dual power system - one should be careful when it comes to explaining everything in such terms. Still, the temptation is great for any Kremlinologist to jump at too far-reaching conclusions when centres of power engage into open battle. Simply following the political trail may however prove a sidetrack. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWmQaR9v0Rs4QWQ_oLzavIiV_2VTAPE9xNzu_xM03y6AQYxThzPGTce3JkSkg_bfXVsfjCJSMLhChndz4LP17vQNF5UlKWRUd7UktBNfSLqczRoZJz0b63TzaIRP5UDDKOFEgc/s1600/gall3.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; cssfloat: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="131" px="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWmQaR9v0Rs4QWQ_oLzavIiV_2VTAPE9xNzu_xM03y6AQYxThzPGTce3JkSkg_bfXVsfjCJSMLhChndz4LP17vQNF5UlKWRUd7UktBNfSLqczRoZJz0b63TzaIRP5UDDKOFEgc/s200/gall3.jpg" width="200" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Instead of zooming in on who will succeed Luzhkov as Moscow mayor - a relevant question in itself - now any Russia watcher may - in real time - be able to cover a greater field in charting power relations in the country than might be deduced merely from the political game. Those who remember the Khodorkovsky case and the Yukos scandal back in 2003 are likely to recognize a recurrent pattern. As back then, Putin stands aside, some mediator - this time Sechin - carries on deceptive negotiations on how to settle a conflict of interests, while the possy prepares to move in for the kill. So, as was the case with Yukos, the interesting issue is who will divide the spoils after Luzhkov - or rather what will happen to his wife's business empire. As illustrated by the NTV-documentary, it is not only Luzhkov one is going after, but also his financial basis.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Needless to point out, there is a reason why Luzhkov's wife, Yelena Baturina, ranks eight in Russian riches. The politico-financial symbiosis between the mayor and his wife in the capital's building and construction business is a racket that has sky-rocketed Moscow real estate prices to some of the highest in the world. With all adjoining businesses under the former mayor's influence, living costs have reached ridiculous levels for most Muscovites. Still, this is the sort of daily corruption that no one cares to bother with, regarding it merely as a way of life. The question now is if Luzhkov has reached a settlement e.g. with Sechin, giving him some sort of immunity in an ordered exchange for his wife's business empire, or if we will witness something similar to what happened to Yukos.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgR2hv2MyzmcVdxhahGSfU1hVu0fV-VBfTzqnkdZ9lccJgaukNBv8HQEZQ9EwBG9BLO8bCiyzf7oidy-s7432HWcyDQCK0XgpjTwZe8iGR7gKz8vKUAzFpIChUumimjB_-veRdX/s1600/lightsout.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; cssfloat: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="156" px="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgR2hv2MyzmcVdxhahGSfU1hVu0fV-VBfTzqnkdZ9lccJgaukNBv8HQEZQ9EwBG9BLO8bCiyzf7oidy-s7432HWcyDQCK0XgpjTwZe8iGR7gKz8vKUAzFpIChUumimjB_-veRdX/s200/lightsout.gif" width="200" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The point is that regardless of struggle or settlement over the Luzhkov spoils, following the money may shed much more light on how forces arrange themselves for the future than merely regarding it as a traditional Kremlinologist game. So, it may be worthwile to pay attention to who goes in for the kill on Luzhkov's legacy - whether in person or by proxy. As lights go out for Luzhkov, lights on his legacy should be kept on for anyone wanting to decipher the machinations of Russian politics.</div><div class="blogger-post-footer">Politics and security in Russia, Central and Eastern Europe, and Central Asia</div>Vilhelm Konnanderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09167606906861836286noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19791491.post-52206864581507400372010-08-08T15:34:00.000+02:002010-08-08T15:34:29.490+02:00Creditors of conscience<div style="text-align: justify;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyTX8hoIEEiZG1uRXT0hgLpmaglBzjKCB1dND8_ugGPh1Hzdw0kMjs12j8dTSAsbkD-F5whFuHydRHWRwjov3Yea-j83p7yElCv-S-yFDgXT9deQLiBU9ys9ZiaYKSNWZohtGj/s1600/Emperors%2520new%2520clothes.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; cssfloat: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" bx="true" height="153" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyTX8hoIEEiZG1uRXT0hgLpmaglBzjKCB1dND8_ugGPh1Hzdw0kMjs12j8dTSAsbkD-F5whFuHydRHWRwjov3Yea-j83p7yElCv-S-yFDgXT9deQLiBU9ys9ZiaYKSNWZohtGj/s200/Emperors%2520new%2520clothes.jpg" width="200" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong>What makes it all so hard to understand? That is the question that arises with authoritarian regimes and comprehension of basic political dynamics. On the surface, it seems they are rather daft, but perhaps it is the corrupt system, the brutality out of which they are born and bred, and the sense of no tomorrow that make them turn a blind eye to realities? So, does it take a child to point out that the emperor is naked or is he well aware of the fact and simply pretends being dressed?</strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">For over a year now, Azeri bloggers and youth activists Adnan Hajizade and Emin Milli have been jailed on fabricated charges in a travesty of justice that would rock most legal systems – but Azerbaijan’s. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">On the eve of 8 July 2009, Hajizade and Milli were assaulted and beaten by two strange men in a Baku restaurant. Reporting the incident to the police, they were – instead of their assailants – detained on charges of hooliganism. After a prolonged legal process, Hajizade and Milli were sentenced to two and two and a half years’ prison respectively – severe convictions for such petty crime. That allegations were unreasonable must have dawned on the officers of the court. The two plaintiffs were former professional athletes trained in martial arts, and the accused two slender bloggers. What is the likelihood of Hajizade and Milli provoking a pub brawl with karate clones, except possibly for a severe death wish? No, their true crime is saying “The emperor is naked!”</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Making a mockery out of a regime with no sense of humor may prove dangerous, which Hajizade and Milli experienced first-hand. As youth activists, they used comedy as means of opposition, and this was obviously regarded dangerous by the regime. In this respect, their destinies differ little from most similar cases worldwide. While peculiarities of each individual miscarriage of justice can never be underestimated, there is no need to go into further detail here. Suffice to say, for once, international reactions have been stern, by e.g. the UN, the EU, and the US. Amnesty International has declared Hajizade and Milli <a href="http://www.amnesty.org/en/issue/prisoners-conscience?page=5">prisoners of conscience</a>.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">So, is that all there is to it? Perhaps not, for there is an aspect often overlooked in cases like these. Despite international pressure, most regimes do not budge to demands of releasing political prisoners with relatively short prison sentences. Getting amnesty for prisoners of conscience is a long-term commitment, and most regimes simply do not care if they get another smudge on an already smeared international image. Instead, an economic analogy may be in place to get the message through, in currencies and denominations comprehensible for a regime where power is a pyramid-scheme for personal enrichment. In such a system, the persecuted are creditors of conscience.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibNmkYJWscrhvN1Lft_smHvrn7OweQxC8uchmNjPbNuTTmHbDxayhqrv7O69wN912Ue6IKS6N6dAyvG3nDt2IA-JIkUNK9tQoCVuIa1j9dAkkDQc1kbJYws9Qahc7DPGrZmbuA/s1600/BP_ExecNickTurner05.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; cssfloat: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" bx="true" height="130" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibNmkYJWscrhvN1Lft_smHvrn7OweQxC8uchmNjPbNuTTmHbDxayhqrv7O69wN912Ue6IKS6N6dAyvG3nDt2IA-JIkUNK9tQoCVuIa1j9dAkkDQc1kbJYws9Qahc7DPGrZmbuA/s200/BP_ExecNickTurner05.jpg" width="200" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;">We have all seen this before – an authoritarian regime ruling a strategically situated country with natural resources in international demand. The result is most often a system where corruption is endemic al, government office distributed as fiefdoms for a limited élite, and a small degree of wealth distribution. The only things that trickle down to ordinary people are oppression and the sense of no future. Politics is economics and economics is politics.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Lessons learnt should be evident, but still the same mistakes are made repeatedly. For the outside world, Azerbaijan carries strategic importance, but there is little strategic about the country’s politico-economic system. Certainly, the going may be good in the short run, but in the long run, all stand to become losers. For states and companies alike, strategic investment in an unsustainable system is putting one’s capital at stake – whether a capital of confidence or of hard cash. In Azerbaijan, there is as little transparency to actual governance as there is to real oil reserves. Basically, you invest in junk bonds both politically and financially, and the only reason you stay on is because there is a line of people behind you willing to fill your place for short term gain. The hard question is when to opt out, but then quitting is not an option, although you know deep down that sooner or later the bubble will burst. Somewhere down the line, investors will have had enough and start asking hard questions needing good answers. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: justify;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBQKSufXoJkLLgLTGKwtK4eI0lkEFd6ntVHTUfLlIJP9S_jgkXb5IUwAM19h-BYIexf53ic47UTVe_nAXDHOS_lyNET0pGc0GucNmhFMi1lSBIxC7_qnhEY8tzyYsH3-n9H-lr/s1600/images.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; cssfloat: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" bx="true" height="160" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBQKSufXoJkLLgLTGKwtK4eI0lkEFd6ntVHTUfLlIJP9S_jgkXb5IUwAM19h-BYIexf53ic47UTVe_nAXDHOS_lyNET0pGc0GucNmhFMi1lSBIxC7_qnhEY8tzyYsH3-n9H-lr/s200/images.jpg" width="200" /></a>So where do two jailed bloggers fit into this scheme? What makes them creditors of conscience? Basically, people like these are like inconvenient auditors of a Lehman Brothers, a Freddie Mac or a Fannie Mae, threatening to shake the foundations of the system by posing fundamental questions. That the system is unsustainable is for all to see, but most people choose to turn a blind eye to realities. It is just the way it should be, as it always has been, and always will be. For the whistleblowers, there is a high price to pay, pointing to greater or minor absurdities, and in the process challenging the system and its persistence. Repression of critique and opposition only serves to demonstrate mounting regime deficiencies. This is the political equivalent of economic indicators. The greater need for repression the more the curves turn downward in terms of political – and indirectly economic – stability and development. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">In essence, it is all like a great poker game with a cheating gambling addict trying to persuade you to be let in on the game: “Hey, Hilary! Tell them I’m good for it… I’ll even bring my own stack of marked cards.” And when reminded of old unpaid debts, there is always some rationalization like: “Just look at what happened in Iran last year! Is that what you want also here in Azerbaijan – the spread of Islamic fundamentalism?” That there is no reason or rationality in such flawed and faulty arguments seems irrelevant, as the main message is: “Don’t rock a sinking boat!” The Azeri government asks the world to bankroll it in terms of non-existent politico-economic legitimacy, with the empty threat of turning to another casino where moral debts are considered null and void. Perhaps it is time to call this bluff as gambling at “Casino Moskva” holds too great stakes with debts collected as “pounds of political flesh.” There simply is no fresh start with a regime burdened by moral debt and even if there were, old habits die hard – resulting in the same situation as before – in one form or another. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-IWbLsEf7kv89inNGO4591e86qw1uTcASxWmU4rOS8zc1wZQT6SPq16AXZKh4-m16OJInIPEv4vaIX4tg9NYH1ssAggA9EzsEB1bokANBCnz0nIFdYb6XtnasnuoXuw_Uiqp-/s1600/cornucopia.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; cssfloat: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" bx="true" height="146" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-IWbLsEf7kv89inNGO4591e86qw1uTcASxWmU4rOS8zc1wZQT6SPq16AXZKh4-m16OJInIPEv4vaIX4tg9NYH1ssAggA9EzsEB1bokANBCnz0nIFdYb6XtnasnuoXuw_Uiqp-/s200/cornucopia.jpg" width="200" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Eventually, the flow from the cornucopia of unchallenged credibility must end. The question is who will make the call – spectators of a naked emperor or players of a greater gamble. They all know that authoritarian Azerbaijan lives on borrowed time. The difference is pointing this out to the world, which obviously needs to be reminded that – as with any debt collection – it is often the small creditors, perceivably standing the least to lose – that are the first to call for bankruptcy making the fraud collapse like a house of cards. That is why creditors of conscience – whether a Hajizade, a Milli, or a Sakharov – provoke such fears with repressive regimes.</div><div class="blogger-post-footer">Politics and security in Russia, Central and Eastern Europe, and Central Asia</div>Vilhelm Konnanderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09167606906861836286noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19791491.post-48706965551641557022010-07-21T06:44:00.002+02:002010-07-21T21:12:42.677+02:00Orthodoxy or Death to Degenerate Art?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://globalvoicesonline.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/pravoslavie_ili_smert-100x100.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; cssfloat: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" hw="true" src="http://globalvoicesonline.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/pravoslavie_ili_smert-100x100.jpg" width="200" /></a></div><div align="justify"></div><div align="justify"><strong><span style="color: #6aa84f;">For <em><a href="http://globalvoicesonline.org/">Global Voices Online</a></em>:</span> "Orthodoxy or death!" are the war cries sounded in recent weeks as forces of religious reaction have entered into fierce battle with liberal arts, in an apparent Russian parallel to the Muhammad cartoon case. The casue of conflict is the trial and conviction of two art curators for a 2007 Moscow exhibition of contemporary art. Following the media spin, one may be led to believe the conviction was a resounding triumph of reactionary religious forces, but as so often is the case, appearances may be deceptive.</strong></div><div align="justify"><br />
</div><div align="justify">On 12 July, the Moscow Tagansky court found art curators Yuri Samodurov and Andrei Yerofeev guilty of "inciting ethnic and religious strife" by their exhibition "<a href="http://www.sakharov-center.ru/museum/exhibitionhall/forbidden-art/">Forbidden art - 2006</a>" -- in a case brought against them by the Russian right-wing organization <em><a href="http://www.narodsobor.ru/">Narodny Sobor</a></em> -- and sentenced them to pay fines of 200.000 (6,500 USD) and 150.000 (4,900 USD) roubles respectively. The verdict was a disappointment for both reactionaries -- hoping for a three year jail sentence -- and liberals -- wanting an acquittal. Once again, concerns are raised where the limits on freedom of expression in Russia really are heading. Thus, yet another Russian case is likely to end up in the <a href="http://www.echr.coe.int/echr/"><em>European Court of Human Rights</em></a> in Strasbourg. </div><div align="justify" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><br />
</div><div align="justify">So, is that all there is to it? Perhaps, but it may also serve as an example of how not only freedom of speech lies in the balance, but also how that balance itself becomes an art "happening" by treading the thin line between art and society -- as the debate surrounding "<a href="http://www.sakharov-center.ru/museum/exhibitionhall/forbidden-art/">Forbidden art - 2006</a>" illustrates.</div><div align="justify"><br />
</div><div align="justify" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">The saying "A picture says more than a thousand words" is truer to Russia than to most other countries. Take <a href="http://www.aerofeev.ru/images/stories/delo/exposition/Savko1.jpg">a tormented Jesus with the head of Mickey Mouse</a> or <a href="http://www.aerofeev.ru/images/stories/delo/exposition/IMG14.jpg">Christ with the face of Lenin</a>, and then wait for reactions. The limits of art are constantly pushed further afield. The dictum of the century-old <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Futurism">Russian futurist manifesto</a> "A slap in the face of public taste" maintains as much a prominent role in Russian arts and culture today as it did in the early 1900s. But in our day and age, slaps are not always what they seem.</div><div align="justify" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><br />
</div><div align="justify" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><a href="http://www.sakharov-center.ru/museum/exhibitionhall/foto/forbidden.jpg" style="clear: right; cssfloat: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img alt="" height="180" src="http://www.sakharov-center.ru/museum/exhibitionhall/foto/forbidden.jpg" title="Forbidden art" width="240" /></a>So, what is then the basic story behind it all? Well, back in March 2007 art curators Yuri Samodurov and Andrei Yerofeev organized an exhibition of artworks that had been rejected from mainstream Moscow museums and galleries during 2006 -- thus the title "<a href="http://www.sakharov-center.ru/museum/exhibitionhall/forbidden-art/">Forbidden art - 2006</a>." The purpose of the artshow was to shed light upon self-imposed censorship quelling the Russian artscene, turning the tide towards more traditional displays of art. The exhibition had a meagre total of 1,020 visitors. Still, it attracted the attention of a small reactionary religious movement, which took Samodurov and Yerofeev to court for offending their religious feelings. Thus, the show was on the road, ending with the very verdict against the art curators, that now has brought so much attention to the case both in Russian and international media. LJ user <em>don_beaver</em> indignantly <a href="http://don-beaver.livejournal.com/59580.html">summarizes</a> [RUS] the case thus:</div><div align="justify"><br />
</div><blockquote><div align="justify">Not long ago, some artists organized an exhibition in a private gallery. People, who were not even at this gallery, declared that their religious feelings had been hurt by the exhibition and went to court. The judge agreed with them and fined exhibition organizers heavily. The only good [thing] about it was that they were not put in jail.</div></blockquote><div align="justify">What was then the drama that turned media's attention towards the case -- beside its freedom of expression aspects? As the verdict was read out last week, a small crowd of bearded men in black uniforms had gathered outside Tagansky court, wearing T-shirts with the text "Orthodoxy or death." Behind these lines lies more than what meets the naked eye. "Orthodoxy or death" (gr. ορθοδοξία ή θάνατος) was originally a motto of the famous monastery of Esphigmenou on Mount Athos, Greece, in its struggle against the Patriarchy of Constantinople, but since the 1990s it has become a token of intolerance and extremism also in Orthodox countries like Serbia and Russia. This photo-op was what caught the eyes of media present outside the court, resulting in vivid pictures of crackpot nationalists setting the Russian civil liberties' agenda in newspaper articles throughout the world. The symbolic effect was so great, that rumours about an upcoming church-initiated proposal to addend the Criminal Code with the crime of "heresy" reached respectable newspapers such as <a href="http://www.samara.aif.ru/politic/news/30813"><em>Argumenty i Fakty</em></a>. However, <a href="http://tristen2e.livejournal.com/28271.html">according to</a> LJ user <em>tristen2e</em> [RUS], this was all a hoax:</div><div align="justify"><br />
</div><blockquote><div align="justify">Besides, everyone believed the sensational news, even though they sounded words, ascribed to father Vsevolod, about heresy "as any form of opposition to Orthodoxy." Obviously, such an unlearned expression in itself could hardly be uttered by such a skilled church diplomat and rhetoric as archpriest Vsevolod Chaplin [spokesman of the Russian Orthodox church]. However, as is often the case with a summer languishing with heat, journalist colleagues could have mixed it up -- everybody thought -- and thus the news started to travel the web.</div></blockquote><div align="justify">For the liberal supporters of Samodurov and Yerofeev, the "Orthodoxy or death" emblem, obviously, was like raising a red rag, reminding them of battles fought during dissident days of a soviet past. This is perhaps also an important aspect that has largely been left out of reporting on the case. In fact, the art curator, Yuri Samodurov, springs from the same soviet dissident movement as Nobel Peace laureate <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrei_Sakharov">Andrei Sakharov</a> during the 1970-80s, and became one of the founding members of <a href="http://www.memorial.ru/"><em>Memorial</em></a> Human Rights' organization. </div><div align="justify"><br />
</div><div align="justify">However, Samodurov regarded opposition to soviet power not as a political but a cultural act. This, arguably, not only set him apart from the mainstream dissident movement, but also enabled him to remain relevant in Russian debate as society at large increasingly deemed dissidentism obsolete. As director of the <a href="http://www.sakharov-center.ru/">Sakharov museum</a>, Samodurov, in February 2006, became an active participant in the debate over the Danish <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jyllands-Posten_Muhammad_cartoons_controversy">Muhammad cartoons controversy</a>, by heralding a Moscow exhibition of these pictures. So, Samodurov's artistic career has been straddled with the constant cooptation of society as art and art as society. It would thus seem that Samodurov and his actions have become a work of postmodern art personified, in blurring boundaries between art and society.</div><div align="justify"><br />
</div><div align="justify">What are then the effects of the "Forbidden art" case on societal debate? LJ user and poet Vitaly Kaplan, critically, tries to <a href="http://vitaly-kaplan.livejournal.com/126633.html#cutid1">draw the larger picture</a> [RUS] of how art has come to divulge greater tendencies of societal developments in present Russia: </div><div align="justify"><br />
</div><blockquote><div align="justify">To begin with, there is the "dry residue" that then moistens a multitude of flavours. Thus, the exhibition "Forbidden art - 2006" is really a mockery with the feelings of believers. Does it need society's condemnation? Yes, it does. Was it necessary to go to court? That is where I have my doubts. What do I think about the verdict? I am happy that they did not put Yerofeev and Samodurov in jail. What do I think about the polemics on the Internet? I would say it is a battle of banners with red dogs.</div><div align="justify"><br />
</div><div align="justify">And now for the details. First concerning the mockery with religious sentiments. The problem is that most disputers, regardless of their positions, do not at all understand what it is all about. So, Yerofeev's and Samodurov's defenders indignantly sigh: Oh, these Orthodox people! Everything offends them! If they were to decide -- then every man would be forced to grow a beard, and the women wear scarves, they would raze the "McDonald's" and burn mosques and synagogues alike. Because everything that does not coincide with their Orthodox ideals hurts their delicate religious feelings. And the opponents of Yerofeev and Samodurov shed tears because the pictures of an exhibition offend the Russian people and contradict national traditions, due to their terrible testimony of lost ideals, as such normative decay prevents the revival of Greater Russia...</div></blockquote><div align="justify">Consequently, the effect of the "Forbidden art" case is not only pitting perceptions of postmodern and medieval icons against each other, but also serves as a token of differences between imagery and reality of current Russian society. The original grievance of Orthodox believers was -- in religious terms -- that the "Forbidden art" pictures constituted a desecration of icons as carriers of divine messages, in accordance with an Orthodox tradition arguing that the words of God cannot be reduced to text, but must be represented in symbols. What lies at the heart of the matter is then the exhibition's iconization of images portraying a metamorphosis of the divine with the profane. Icons are turned into idolatry of symbols with a mixed message representing the complexities of current society.</div><div align="justify"><br />
</div><div align="justify">What impact has then the conviction of Samodurov and Yerofeev had on perceptions of Russian society, and can it serve as an indicator of where freedom of expression is heading in the country? As much as easy answers would be welcome, reality probably has more in store for the greater picture. Possibly, by seizing the agenda with a question that transcends the borders of art and society, the core of the issue becomes obscured -- whether one of art or freedom of expression, of both or neither. However, society -- in the image of the state -- chooses to take a stand for or against freedom of expression in terms of artforms which purpose may actually be to exploit the interaction such a stand unavoidably involves. </div><div align="justify"><br />
</div><div align="justify">Still, at the end of the day, the question must be raised about the ramifications of that stand for the development of freedom of speech and expression in Russian society. Here, under the headline "Forbidden art gets more expensive," LJ user <em>timur_nechaev77</em> <a href="http://timur-nechaev77.livejournal.com/22307.html?thread=218915">offers an assessment</a> [RUS]:</div><div align="justify"><br />
</div><blockquote><div align="justify">The sentence passed against the organizers of the exhibition "Forbidden art - 2006" shows that during the last few years, the price of criticizing the state ideology - Orthodoxy - has risen nearly twice. In 2005, Yuri Samodurov was fined 100 thousand roubles for the exhibition "Beware of religion" which provoked a pogrome from religious extremists of the Russian Orthodox Church. Now they sentenced Samodurov to pay 200 thousand, and Andrei Yerofeev 150 thousand roubles. Of course, the verdict will be appealed as high as Strasbourg and if the European Court will stand on the side of the pogromists and religious fanatics from the Russian Orthodox Church, then of course, Yerofeev and Samodurov will have to pay the fines.</div></blockquote><div align="justify">As is often so poorly realized by contemporary society, art may cut to the core problems and developments of our times. The role of an artist increasingly becomes one of pushing the right button to ignite societal debate on issues that may actually be more profound than art itself. Art then merely becomes the symbol of greater tendencies, and thereby recreates itself <em>sui generis</em> by mechanisms greater than the specific work of art and its originator. In the "forbidden art" case, the verdict may serve as a conveyor -- a sign of premonition of either desirable or undesirable developments -- of what is ceasing the normative middle ground in Russian society. Is it right or wrong? Right or wrong is perhaps both not the issue here and still the issue in itself, as everything becomes part of the spectacle, a happening, or the (in)famous <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/15_minutes_of_fame">fifteen minutes of fame</a>. </div><div align="justify"><br />
</div><div align="justify">As the Romans used to say: “There is no accounting for taste” and art is well beyond the domain of things society may hold people accountable for. That is a matter of taste, and that taste is for each and all to decide on individually — including the right to support or protest against the views and beliefs that agree or conflict with one's own — without state interference. For who is to deem what is degenerate art?</div><div class="blogger-post-footer">Politics and security in Russia, Central and Eastern Europe, and Central Asia</div>Vilhelm Konnanderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09167606906861836286noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19791491.post-63642385338814157052010-07-08T19:53:00.000+02:002010-07-08T19:53:23.597+02:00Godfather of refused offers<div style="text-align: justify;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><a href="http://www.ntv.ru/img/ntvru.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; cssfloat: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="93" rw="true" src="http://www.ntv.ru/img/ntvru.png" width="100" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="color: #93c47d;">For <em><a href="http://globalvoicesonline.org/">Global Voices Online</a>:</em></span> Is it a deliberate provocation, a government-engineered attack on a foreign head of state, a gas-giant's attempt to rock Russian foreign policy - or simply an example of good and critical journalism? Questions abound in the Russian-language blogosphere following Russian TV-channel NTV's 4 July screening of "</strong><a href="http://www.ntv.ru/peredacha/proisschestvie/"><strong>The Godfather</strong></a><strong>" - a documentary about Aleksandr Lukashenko, omnipotent president of neighbouring Belarus.</strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">For long, Russia and Belarus have stood out as brothers in arms in the dysfunctional family of post-soviet states. Strings of harmony have even sounded a 1999 ouverture to formal unification of the two states. But as with any family, outward accord often hides domestic discord, and disturbances have been both frequent and harsh. However, up until now Moscow and Minsk have made efforts to keep up appearances. It is against this background that Sunday's screening of <em>NTV</em>'s Lukashenko-critical documentary - beside overall sentiments of indignation - has sparked speculations that "The Godfather" of Belarus may have refused too many offers from the Russian Dons.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Then, what about the documentary in itself? As LJ user <em>zmagarka</em> <a href="http://zmagarka.livejournal.com/958336.html">notes</a> [RUS], the Lukashenko documentary has little new to offer about government involvement in political repression, murders, and disappearances in Belarus over the last 16 years:</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><blockquote><div style="text-align: justify;">Thank you <del></del>NTV for this documentary about the biggest Belarusian psychopath. For us, this was absolutely nothing new, not least because the greater part of the video was clippings from old films [---]. The theme of the "vanished" (disappeared political opponents) should never be forgotten and there is no forgiving the murderers, not even hoping so in their sweetest dreams. Still, over the last 10 years, matters have grown so much worse. About this there is hardly a word.</div><div align="justify">Gazprom</div><div style="text-align: justify;"></div><div style="text-align: justify;"></div></blockquote><div style="text-align: justify;">Returning to the major theme of discussion, it is no secret that relations between Moscow and Minsk have been tense in recent years, and it is likewise well-known that Russia's former President and now Premier, Vladimir Putin, has had to make little effort to restrain his enthusiasm, on both a political and personal level, in dealing with Aleksandr Lukashenko, President of Belarus. Consequently, many see the documentary as a political commission to <em>NTV</em>, although opinions differ on whether Russian state gas company, <em>Gazprom</em>, is behind it all or if sanction has come from the very top of Russian politics. That <em>NTV</em> is controlled by <em>Gazprom</em>, which until recently was engaged in a prolonged gas war with Belarus, may not be sufficient reason to simply point the finger at this company. As LJ user <em>sergeland</em> <a href="http://sergeland.livejournal.com/44273.html">points out</a>, also state owned <a href="http://rt.com/"><em>Russia Today</em></a> sounds critique towards Lukashenko:</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><blockquote><div style="text-align: justify;">At the same time, the multilingual international channel Russia Today ran a similar story about the last dictator of Europe. Formally, NTV is an independent TV-network, although it belongs to Gazprom, and Gazprom belongs to the state. However, Russia Today is a wholly state-owned company. Therefore, it is wrong to think that this action is merely a limited revenge against Lukashenko for the loss of the recent gas war. Without sanction from the very top, nothing would have happened.</div></blockquote><div style="text-align: justify;">Some Russian bloggers also believe that this is not simply a temporary squabble, but that the documentary marks a change in Russian dealings with Lukashenko, and even call for a straightout annexation of Belarus, arguing that Moscow anyway constantly has to pay Minsk's bill. Thus, LJ user <em>elf_ociten</em>, in a piece called "NTV tears the mask off the godfather" [RUS], <a href="http://community.livejournal.com/ru_politics/31362576.html">writes</a>:</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><blockquote><div style="text-align: justify;">At long last, the elite of the Russian Federation has made it clear that it is not heading down the same road as the bloody and thieving last dictator of Europe. It is time to disassociate ourselves from an independent Belarus and stop the farce of a union state, and thank God, Moscow has also put the question squarely to the Belarusian élite: Either Belarus becomes a North-Western territory (as an option) - without Lukashenko - as part of the Russian Federation, and with possible separation of ethnically Polish territories, or let's dump it together with Lukashenko and his free lunches to all four sides. As the saying goes, the cards have been called, and it's time to pay up.</div></blockquote><div style="text-align: justify;">However, such ideas are dismissed with ridicule in Minsk, and Belarusian bloggers are not late to underscore that also Russia is dependent on Belarus. As LJ user <em>pan_andriy</em> [RUS] is quick to <a href="http://community.livejournal.com/ru_politics/31370710.html">point out</a>:</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><blockquote><div style="text-align: justify;">On Belarusian forums, you can come across blunt suggestions to cut off transit of food to Russia. After all, Moscow sits with 90% imports of chow, of which a lot is rolled through Belarus. Within two days there would be full chaos in Moscow (remember the madhouse with salt because of rumours of a "war with Ukraine").</div></blockquote><div style="text-align: justify;">There are also voices in Belarus expecting its political leadership to pay back in kind, and <a href="http://nagnibeda.livejournal.com/36271.html">according to</a> LJ user <em>Nagnibeda</em> [RUS], there are even rumours that a documentary about Putin is in the making:</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><blockquote><div style="text-align: justify;">As a very initiated television source is saying, recruitment of staff has started for a film about Putin, in which the subject will be tougher than in the one reeled on NTV about Lukashenko. Putin will not merely be a murderer, but an outright serial killer of his own people.</div></blockquote><div style="text-align: justify;">Finally, as the saying goes: Why do you see the speck that is in your brothers eye, but do not notice the beam that is in your own eye? Consequently, LJ user <em>varfolomeev_v</em> <a href="http://varfolomeev-v.livejournal.com/347516.html">draws some parallels</a> [RUS] between politics in Belarus and Russia:</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><blockquote><div style="text-align: justify;">I wonder whether the executors of this political contract noticed that, telling about the horrors of political life in Belarus, they made a film about contemporary Russia? Only the names are different, but everything else - crackdowns, arrests, murders, and so on - wholly characterises also our own regime.</div></blockquote><div style="text-align: justify;">At the end of the day, and despite a recent customs union, it is becoming increasingly evident that Russia and Belarus do not head in bed again, and still they seem destined to more horsing about, not least if hiring media gunmen. Perhaps, both Slavic brothers should thus heed the advice of another godfather: "Never tell anybody outside the family what you're thinking again."</div><div class="blogger-post-footer">Politics and security in Russia, Central and Eastern Europe, and Central Asia</div>Vilhelm Konnanderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09167606906861836286noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19791491.post-2120513900106614232010-06-04T01:06:00.009+02:002010-06-04T01:34:11.893+02:00Stalin's summer snowstorms<div style="text-align: justify;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9FIR8Yv68bYghzfgS0rPQq_xT4_fVD92mtpb6P7BIplEZaSSvljwOORXRyk0wKaNyB-MgJHR-brk3Tl_zrg4O0gYBcYXiQQxXnW-UYjaHVFBKEiLFwyvAPmM1YZ-T9ULATrpr/s1600/artlib_gallery-127181-b.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; cssfloat: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" gu="true" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9FIR8Yv68bYghzfgS0rPQq_xT4_fVD92mtpb6P7BIplEZaSSvljwOORXRyk0wKaNyB-MgJHR-brk3Tl_zrg4O0gYBcYXiQQxXnW-UYjaHVFBKEiLFwyvAPmM1YZ-T9ULATrpr/s200/artlib_gallery-127181-b.jpg" width="153" /></a><strong>Some stories are too good - or bad - not to be retold. One of them is about Moscow's summer snowstorms that annually rage across the city at the beginning of June to the surprise and bewilderment of unsuspecting visitors. For Muscovites, they simply form a half a century old legacy of folly and megalomania.</strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">As a guest to Russia's capital, waking up to to the sounds and sights of a bustling metropolis may also present a freak of nature in the form of an apparent summer snowstorm. For those not drawing the curtains again, going back to sleep as after a bad dream, curiousity drives the kind of questions that demand but do not await an answer. For most, though, they are simply met with a frown or a dejected shrud of the shoulders, possibly followed by a sighing sound exclaiming "pukh." If not mistaking this pooh sound for Russian rejection to an inquisitive foreigner, "pukh" is the first lead in a Moscow mystery waiting to be solved. Likewise, a subsequent "topol" should not be interpreted by prospective security specialists as some Russian trying to divulge secrets about the country's latest nuclear missile programme, coincidentally carrying that very same name. Instead, the true secret is - as many secrets are - common knowledge to any Muscovite.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgECQVB4mmSOvAmWj1slr7jYJlNW_iyM7ad4r4_3b2fYb97mOFkRSxdFCcjjEJe05o3wq693NKAc2pE0UYqhsfU-K7hEYwQYJ1rKXU5ldMncLTUtBlnjup7rkncdfEu5-sMN5LF/s1600/1.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; cssfloat: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" gu="true" height="150" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgECQVB4mmSOvAmWj1slr7jYJlNW_iyM7ad4r4_3b2fYb97mOFkRSxdFCcjjEJe05o3wq693NKAc2pE0UYqhsfU-K7hEYwQYJ1rKXU5ldMncLTUtBlnjup7rkncdfEu5-sMN5LF/s200/1.gif" width="200" /></a></div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: justify;">So, "pukh" and "topol" - meaning tuft and poplar - are the first keys to a mystery waiting to be solved. Still, some visitors content themselves with learning that the white drifts amassing the streets of Moscow are simply poplar pollen that this time of the year terrorize the lives out of allergics and asthmatics. Looking at the mere mass of it, the question "why?" brings you back to an era when questions were dangerous and answers were deadly. It is the era of Stalinist folly and megalomania.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">The year 1934 has come down in the historic annals for the Congress of the Victors, finalizing the success of the first five year plan. For 1,108 of the 1,996 delegates to this Communist Congress, it was to become the Congress of the Condemned. From this perspective, it is perhaps a historical irony that 1934 also serves as a constant reminder of how wrong things may come out when fulfilling the plan, and what punishment lies in wait for generations to come. So, what is the reason for this "Stalin's revenge" as an afflicted US ambassador once chose to call it?</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTxymL5sStaK2E9_Ck6T3ntMnL8VK99L81XORzUia3j_EGPHv8BWmt6eSucxY4rXVkffb_lAZ2nImMFjPJgc7vuYKCFdP3PXVo4d9TUcmmsZAcagjW_ZxQLuoGvdSG9PHG5CkT/s1600/Hotel_Ukraina_in_Moscow_by_inObrAS.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; cssfloat: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" gu="true" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTxymL5sStaK2E9_Ck6T3ntMnL8VK99L81XORzUia3j_EGPHv8BWmt6eSucxY4rXVkffb_lAZ2nImMFjPJgc7vuYKCFdP3PXVo4d9TUcmmsZAcagjW_ZxQLuoGvdSG9PHG5CkT/s200/Hotel_Ukraina_in_Moscow_by_inObrAS.jpg" width="200" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Having in the 1930s razed Moscow of its pictoresque 19th century architecture to give way for his Empire style skyscrapers and stucco laden street buildings, Stalin was struck by the depressing sight of the urban stone desert he had set out to create. There simply had to be greenery to match the fearful façades with equally imposing trees to straddle soviet streets and avenues. Moreover, it had to be done fast, not merely fulfilling but over-fulfilling the plan. Whether dizzy with success or merely desperate, Stalin's city planners and gardeners made an unlucky choice, by settling for the poplar.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Surely, poplar is an imposing tree, reaching some 20 metres full-grown, giving ample shade during hot Moscow summer days, and - of crucial importance - grows faster than most trees accustomed to the dire Russian climate. For all reasons, it seems as a natural choice. That a quarter of Moscow trees would become poplars was not possibly perceived as any major problem. However, as a latter day potentate once put it: "We wanted the best, but it turned out as always." </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjS3K6a05i78cnQET5VjYRz_4qGbrvJ1SiU0XKcLvomqw6-swtiMB29Ly0toCSebauYgFTdb7oc8wIuUyX2JxlCboos3BrSUDEBLDX70XUFcE7tuVVQT8UI2wmJ8K8DKlKJPXfP/s1600/Malmsbury%2520Gardens%2520Poplar%2520Ave.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; cssfloat: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" gu="true" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjS3K6a05i78cnQET5VjYRz_4qGbrvJ1SiU0XKcLvomqw6-swtiMB29Ly0toCSebauYgFTdb7oc8wIuUyX2JxlCboos3BrSUDEBLDX70XUFcE7tuVVQT8UI2wmJ8K8DKlKJPXfP/s200/Malmsbury%2520Gardens%2520Poplar%2520Ave.jpg" width="133" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;">In a freak turn of events, it so happened that the consequential mass tree plantation was exclusively of female poplars. So, each spring, as the poplars bloom, there are no male poplars to pollinate the abundant seeds of the females. The result is that the female poplars, let go of their seeds, as there are no males to fertilise them, producing clouds of white fluff floating through the air, in places creating ankle-deep drifts of pollen, and - with a gale - producing a virtual summer snowstorm. As usual, the soviet system could not let nature take its natural course, and now Muscovites have to pay the price for Stalin's megalomanic folly, presenting parades of poplar to the people.</div><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">If but one lesson is learnt from history, it is that victors often become the vanquished. Thus, turning from the victors of 1934 to those of 1945, a phrase from A.N. Vertinsky's triumphant song to Stalin comes to mind:</div><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;"><em><blockquote><div style="text-align: justify;"><em>Slightly grey, as a silver poplar, <br />
he stands to receive the parade. </em></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><em>What was not the price of Sevastopol, <br />
not the price of Stalingrad! </em></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><em>And in those blind, cold nights, <br />
when the front was swept by snowstorm. </em></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><em>These clear and penetrating eyes, <br />
in the end looked through the enemy.</em></div></blockquote></em></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitIPVsp9WMAeMmI0MhvFZZGsaYctbzIlNaLyIrSBr-hArfFPOYUZeWnWNybGZzXBjaH1XC5Th0X_65ljHsyyEeokSgYkLd7M9SSFmVMyhkuTJ6nqwbocLBP_k9-JYRD54_j3I8/s1600/074c343a6112.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; cssfloat: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" gu="true" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitIPVsp9WMAeMmI0MhvFZZGsaYctbzIlNaLyIrSBr-hArfFPOYUZeWnWNybGZzXBjaH1XC5Th0X_65ljHsyyEeokSgYkLd7M9SSFmVMyhkuTJ6nqwbocLBP_k9-JYRD54_j3I8/s200/074c343a6112.jpg" width="131" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Perhaps, we - the people - should learn not to trust the vision of our leaders, whose sight may well be obscured by the vertigo of victory and absolute adoration. Perhaps, it is instead our task to penetrate the plans and programmes of populist power, or else have to suffer the summer snowstorms of natural condemnation. Perhaps, Moscow's Stalinist poplars could serve as a memento for us that politics of pure power may bring snowstorms in the summer and heatwaves in the winter.</div><div class="blogger-post-footer">Politics and security in Russia, Central and Eastern Europe, and Central Asia</div>Vilhelm Konnanderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09167606906861836286noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19791491.post-81819256996064876862010-03-15T15:41:00.003+01:002010-03-15T15:47:58.718+01:00BBC + Global Voices = True<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhcMhHs5PCmFOq6TgLxFNLsqsXb-dYGVHC8c6VXJkErulZ19ZVweRNqQvIXUg7YOoMFaUDRgOc3xrLIv5NaS_CEuhyEpciGeZicYlthpNCtt1okGDYBy4ApCnCawb5O2IyH4ul-/s1600-h/BBC.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; cssfloat: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="168" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhcMhHs5PCmFOq6TgLxFNLsqsXb-dYGVHC8c6VXJkErulZ19ZVweRNqQvIXUg7YOoMFaUDRgOc3xrLIv5NaS_CEuhyEpciGeZicYlthpNCtt1okGDYBy4ApCnCawb5O2IyH4ul-/s200/BBC.JPG" vt="true" width="200" /></a></div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: justify;"><strong>As traditional media is increasingly turning attention to social media, the roles and cooperation of the two has become the focus of widespread discussion. Which form such interaction should assume is a question of intense interest for both parties. One attempt to interact is a recent and temporary cooperation betweeen <em><a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/">the BBC</a></em> and <em><a href="http://globalvoicesonline.org/">Global Voices</a></em>.</strong></div><div style="text-align: justify;"></div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: justify;"><strong><br />
</strong></div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: justify;"></div><div style="text-align: justify;">As is generally known in social media, <em><a href="http://globalvoicesonline.org/">Global Voices</a></em> is a community of more than 200 bloggers around the world who work together to bring you translations and reports from blogs and citizen media everywhere, with emphasis on voices that are not ordinarily heard in international mainstream media. <em>Global Voices</em> seeks to aggregate, curate, and amplify the global conversation online - shining light on places and people other media often ignore. We work to develop tools, institutions and relationships that will help all voices, everywhere, to be heard.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: justify;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiAFfNkS_dds02IEVH40vPkpHg_rxBWIGTCgBahB8trF00ZkW9QC6OnzF1aSXvR8XsJKE_O-cj2V43y9-L3OZLVDASb8QsH8PHPeHezfxVUSFXop78b93zl0fL8rUhYJkrFnuD6/s1600/GV.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; cssfloat: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiAFfNkS_dds02IEVH40vPkpHg_rxBWIGTCgBahB8trF00ZkW9QC6OnzF1aSXvR8XsJKE_O-cj2V43y9-L3OZLVDASb8QsH8PHPeHezfxVUSFXop78b93zl0fL8rUhYJkrFnuD6/s200/GV.JPG" vt="true" width="190" /></a>In a joint statement the two declare: "Global Voices [and the BBC] are working together for two weeks to see how online citizen media can complement some of the BBC's international reporting and vice versa." Thus, an assortment of pieces from Global Voices are published by the BBC as part of its <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/theeditors/2010/03/superpower_bbc_and_global_voic.html">SuperPower Season</a>, with concurrent publication on <em>Global Voices'</em> special coverage page on <a href="http://globalvoicesonline.org/specialcoverage/bbc-and-global-voices/">BBC News and Global Voices cooperation</a>. Please, stay tuned for what might become a start of a great friendship.</div><div class="blogger-post-footer">Politics and security in Russia, Central and Eastern Europe, and Central Asia</div>Vilhelm Konnanderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09167606906861836286noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19791491.post-6109791913574441632009-11-08T17:05:00.002+01:002009-11-08T17:08:30.263+01:00Time to rid the blinders about NordStream<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7I5uNyU5SY04kYdqa5ItgAebSInlVtTjAWNZhh4s3iJSJ0jGz4CKiXteKJdgjd9My3fSxAc718Y9kj6tlok2pzG22xupLlvxvUs3apRBy-q7xixh_0ociZJAyUJSZNs25iB-i/s1600-h/pipe-laying.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; cssfloat: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" sr="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7I5uNyU5SY04kYdqa5ItgAebSInlVtTjAWNZhh4s3iJSJ0jGz4CKiXteKJdgjd9My3fSxAc718Y9kj6tlok2pzG22xupLlvxvUs3apRBy-q7xixh_0ociZJAyUJSZNs25iB-i/s200/pipe-laying.jpg" /></a><strong>The Swedish government's decision to accept the disputed gas pipeline <em>NordStream</em> has caused debate. Is the Russian-German gas pipeline a security policy threat to vital Swedish interests? Or is it a project that safeguards stability and development in Russia? </strong><strong>In a recent interview by Andreas Henriksson from political web journal </strong><a href="http://makthavare.se/"><strong>makthavare.se</strong></a><strong>, I try to put some of these questions into perspective. </strong><br />
</div><div align="justify" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><br />
</div><div align="justify" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">Vilhelm Konnander participated as one of the lecturers at the <em><a href="http://www.fokus.se/">Fokus magazine</a></em> conference "When technology changes politics" a few weeks ago, where he spoke at the Global outlook seminar. He is also one of the authors of the international blog gateway <em><a href="http://globalvoicesonline.org/">Global Voices</a></em>, and has both professionally and privately followed developments in Russia for a long period of time. Makthavare.se asked him to give his views on the gas pipeline, and also account for the role that Russian gas and oil giant <em>Gazprom</em> plays in current Russia.<br />
</div><div align="justify" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><br />
</div><div align="justify" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><strong>Q: How do you think that the Russian political leadership looks at the gas pipeline? Is it an important project for them from a strategic and geopolitical perspective, or is it a more downright economic project that carries its own merits and might have fallen had Swedish resistance been to great?</strong> <br />
<br />
A: It is time to rid ourselves of blinders concerning the Nordstream issue. For Russia, NordStream and energy exports is a classical question of domestic foreign policy. It is about fattening a system that rests on a far-reaching political and economic symbiosis between competing political and economic élites, which seek to monopolize political and economic power. And the loyalty of élites is dependent on the incomes from oil, gas, and other raw materials, and how these profits are divided.<br />
</div><div align="justify" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><br />
</div><div align="justify" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">Extenstive regulations, taxation, and charges on the domestic market, has put the Russian energy industry in a position where the largest profits are made on foreign markets. For example, the internal Russian price on gas has, at times, been as low as a mere 3 percent of the export price. In the course of time, Gazprom's export incomes have varied between 50 and 70 percent of the business conglomerate's total revenues, despite the fact that substantially lower gas volumes have been delivered to Europe than to the domestic market. The Russian élites have thus enveloped itself into a so great dependency to divide the spoils of energy export revenues that it has become an integrated part of the country's informal system of government.<br />
</div><div align="justify" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><br />
</div><div align="justify" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><strong>Q: And what would be the consequences of that?</strong> <br />
</div><div align="justify" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><br />
Today, Russia's political stability is dependent on stable energy export revenues. In the event that this money flow is stopped - especially in times of economic crisis - it may subvert or threaten the political stability of the country. <br />
</div><div align="justify" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><br />
</div><div align="justify" class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglmOHTxMghbA3QkHz-EDGMl91_1Yvj5ewlcMGOiHfPL-r_9YfGJVYhZWHvxtPHBTho1nvkfKtCyXykcpKKw0nqOqyHJLCcelJS33y79By9VM4e1j16SSqNPC-rRzeB-vKZ7ntV/s1600-h/CEU908.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; cssfloat: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" sr="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglmOHTxMghbA3QkHz-EDGMl91_1Yvj5ewlcMGOiHfPL-r_9YfGJVYhZWHvxtPHBTho1nvkfKtCyXykcpKKw0nqOqyHJLCcelJS33y79By9VM4e1j16SSqNPC-rRzeB-vKZ7ntV/s200/CEU908.gif" /></a><br />
</div><div align="justify" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">The link between falling energy prices and Russian systemic collapse is obvious, regardless of whether one speaks of the fall of the Soviet Union or the financial crisis in the wake of which Putin came to power. Therefore, the effects of the international financial crisis is now all becoming resemblant of a fight for life or death to get hold of a piece of an ever diminishing cake. The consequences of Russian domestic political instability are still unclear, but increasing Russian desperation might cause greater uncertainties in the foreign and security policy area - in contrast to the clarity and predictability of recent years.<br />
</div><div align="justify" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><br />
</div><div align="justify" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><strong>Q: What then might we expect from or great Eastern neighbour in the future? </strong><br />
</div><div align="justify" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><br />
</div><div align="justify" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">A: In this perspectve, NordStream is, of course, important, but a basic mistake from the Swedish horizon is to constantly depart from very obscure geopolitical perspecitve, at the same time as the fundamental Russian domestic motives behind the project either are put in the background or regarded as purely economic. <br />
</div><div align="justify" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><br />
</div><div align="justify" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">In the interplay between politics and business, NordStream and similar projects are strategically vital for Russia, and here the domestic driving forces marginalise any potential foreign policy considerations - especially concerning a country like Sweden, which is hardly visible on the Russian political map. Continued Swedish resistance to NordStream would therefore be regarded as a ridiculous source of irritation from a Lilliputian country in the European periphery.<br />
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</div><div align="justify"><strong>Q: In Sweden, NordStream has been thoroughly discussed, mostly from a critical perspective, by representatives of both the political blocs. Do you think that the NordStream management - and consequently the heavy political actors behind i in Russia and Germany - have paid any attention to Swedish critique, or would they have built the pipeline no matter what the Swedish government would have thought and said?</strong><br />
</div><div align="justify"><br />
</div><div align="justify">A: That Russia and Germany would have shown any greater consideration of Swedish critique is not very probable. Some considerations may well be made as for the stretch and makeup of the gas pipeline, and Sweden may surely also grumble and protract the issue if desired, but eventually both Moscow and Berlin counts on the Swedish government coming around. It is one thing if Sweden throws gravel into the Russian machinery, but to oppose both Russia and - above all - Germany will prove difficult in the long run.<br />
</div><div align="justify"><br />
</div><div align="justify"><strong>Q: How important is NordStream, in your opinion, to Germany?</strong><br />
</div><div align="justify"><br />
</div><div align="justify">A: All since Willy Brandt's <em>Ostpolitik </em>was launched in the 1970s, Berlin and Moscow have enveloped into a mutual dependency according to the formula "change by rapproachment," where gas deliveries to Germany has become the basic ingredient in the political concepts of both continental powers.<br />
</div><div align="justify">Even if Angela Merkel's (the German Chancellor) enthusiasm towards the project is more controlled than her predecessor's , Gerhard Schröder, who by the way is on Gazprom's payroll, the realization of the gas pipeline is central to future German-Russian cooperation. That Germany, in current times of economic crisis, would terminate a project, which ensures long-term, secure, and cheap gas deliveries, would be very surprising - both from a political and a financial perspective.<br />
</div><div align="justify"><br />
</div><div align="justify"><strong>Q: How politically directed is the Russian gas and oil giant Gazprom?</strong><br />
</div><div align="justify"><br />
A: The question should perhaps rather be how economically directed the Kremlin is by Gazprom. That both Russia's president, Dmitry Medvedev, and on of the country's previous Prime Ministers, Victor Chernomyrdin, have been chairmen of Gazprom should be a clear indicator. Despite privatization attempts during the 1990s, Gazprom has remained a state gas monopoly with great influence on political power. With increasing political control over so called strategic resources, Gazprom has served as a tool for quasi nationalizations of remaining private gas and oil companies, why its position has been all the more strengthened. The question about Gazprom and the Kremlin is like tha classical question about the hen and the egg: Which one came first?<br />
</div><div align="justify"><br />
</div><div align="justify"><strong>Q: To what extent would you say that Russia is using its great oil and gas resources as an instrument of foreign policy power?</strong><br />
</div><div align="justify"><br />
</div><div align="justify" class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjliKUUSm6Kg_aJlAu3JlYEEWoVZCOazhkDQrqq8PlkzlxiVbkcdwMoZlK9fxbFkcqjTePOqIYwfFE0DV_HMINwwLMbOmKWfm8urFLk4DGmINXj4KkLrXa42NrC70yrjV1mSFGb/s1600-h/10419_1241386118616_1348204887_696750_2765257_n.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; cssfloat: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" sr="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjliKUUSm6Kg_aJlAu3JlYEEWoVZCOazhkDQrqq8PlkzlxiVbkcdwMoZlK9fxbFkcqjTePOqIYwfFE0DV_HMINwwLMbOmKWfm8urFLk4DGmINXj4KkLrXa42NrC70yrjV1mSFGb/s200/10419_1241386118616_1348204887_696750_2765257_n.jpg" /></a><br />
</div><div align="justify">A: Rhetorics about Russa as an energy superpower have, in recent years, almost become a mantra for Russian leaders, as a way of strengthening national self-images and confidence. However, judging from results, it is hard to show that Moscow is using energy as a direct foreign policy tool. Seen frlom an economic and domestic political viewpoint, the energy issue is, however, currently part and parcel of almost all Russia's conflicts with its neighbours in recent years - Estonia, Ukraine, Lithuania, and Georgia.<br />
</div><div align="justify"><br />
What is interesting is, however, to look at how Moscow indirectly uses energy as a means of strategic manipulation. With the help of energy, foreign policy advantages and concessions are simply achieved in other areas than exactly the one that each conflict focuses on. Energy is used indirectly rather than directly as a foreign policy tool, where domestic politico-economic considerations often determine foreign policy action.<br />
</div><div align="justify"><br />
<strong>Q: What do you think about the Swedish debate about NordStream? Is it substantially mostly correct or is it mared by antiquated Swedish fears of the Russians?</strong><br />
</div><div align="justify"><br />
A: When Nordstream is addressed in Swedish debate, it is not hard to make up an image of a security policys establishment, where old realist political views are mutually confirmed and reinforced - no matter whether it is about security policy reservations or pretexts for the very same kind of perspectives. The interesting thing is not what is actually said, but what is not said.<br />
</div><div align="justify">Fundamentally, Sweden is faced by a catch 22 concerning the gas pipeline. Should one seek to undermine Russia's political stability by torpedoing the NordStream project, with increased Russian security policy unpredictability as a consequence, or should one indirectly contribute to support the continuation of a corrupt and authoritarian regime, of which one at least knows what to expect? That is a question that gets little or no attention.<br />
<br />
</div><div align="justify"><strong>Q: As you see it, is there something we in Sweden have misconstrued in the security policy and geopolitical judgement of NordStream?</strong><br />
</div><div align="justify"><br />
A: We, basically, pose the wrong questions about NordStream, and consequently get all the wrong answers. As long as the Swedish political and security policy establishment is dedicated to self-binding about the question of our relations to Russia - regardless of whether it concerns NordStream or general approaches - we risk ending up with the wrong conclusions. As 20 years have passed since the fall of the Berlin wall, it is possible that we as little now as then might predict fundamental changes in Russia. Still, the invasion threat from the East returns in various forms. From military threat to criminality, from criminality to refugee invasion, from refugee invastion to epidemics, from epidemics to energy. The list is long, but what has become reality?<br />
</div><div align="justify"><br />
</div><div align="justify"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Translation published by permission of Andreas Henriksson, </span><a href="http://makthavare.se/"><span style="font-size: x-small;">makthavare.se</span></a><br />
</div><div class="blogger-post-footer">Politics and security in Russia, Central and Eastern Europe, and Central Asia</div>Vilhelm Konnanderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09167606906861836286noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19791491.post-71894804591946028282009-10-20T15:55:00.022+02:002011-02-02T23:35:31.355+01:00Building Babylon<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhcXO3nZFnfiReKayuSG6S6TJg3fRgaSoucmID5M67CZW8quNUXeRsa8IFaK1xfl2yrB2uWr62b-KrWjlRV_v3HD8wKv6zjjf21xjwQ6q00LphiDirGE741ayPsjhX5ktQg37nq/s1600-h/350px-Brueghel-tower-of-babel.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; cssfloat: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><strong><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhcXO3nZFnfiReKayuSG6S6TJg3fRgaSoucmID5M67CZW8quNUXeRsa8IFaK1xfl2yrB2uWr62b-KrWjlRV_v3HD8wKv6zjjf21xjwQ6q00LphiDirGE741ayPsjhX5ktQg37nq/s200/350px-Brueghel-tower-of-babel.jpg" vr="true" /></strong></a><strong>The simplest things in life pass with so little notice that they have to jump up and bite you in order to be understood. Evidently, so is also the case with social media and the political particularities and mechanisms of about any country. As once the tower of Babel was wrought by confusion of language, social media risk becoming a mere edifice of a failed attempt to combine politics and technology. </strong></div><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">Addressing a <em><a href="http://www.fokus.se/">Fokus magazine</a></em> conference on "<a href="http://www.fokus.se/tekniken-forandrar-politiken/">How technology changes politics</a>" last week, I was struck by a feeling that I spoke a different language than most other participants. This was peculiar to me, as I am well-versed in Swedish political and media culture, and knew many of the other participants. At first, I could not get a grip on why such was the case, before realizing that the combination of politics and social media was at the core of the problem. I simply did not relate to the use of social media in politics in the same way as most other participants did.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVUOdMvagWeCNXeBTVT-uGtT7eNt-4IfVu44M3-hOtQXldICgOLSlH_FtsFRPWQleT6beEuEwO1l_uWihGWF-p2J2I8T04GteJaxuUgu8teWme3NrIdxOmMPH7IiKDFAfCCEwW/s1600-h/10874bb6e09073fea252912d9f037e28.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; cssfloat: right; cssfloat: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVUOdMvagWeCNXeBTVT-uGtT7eNt-4IfVu44M3-hOtQXldICgOLSlH_FtsFRPWQleT6beEuEwO1l_uWihGWF-p2J2I8T04GteJaxuUgu8teWme3NrIdxOmMPH7IiKDFAfCCEwW/s200/10874bb6e09073fea252912d9f037e28.gif" vr="true" /></a>Why was it so? The simplest explanation is that dealing with social media on an international level - mainly with Central and Eastern Europe - the way political topics and issues are addressed there has little similarity with how things are dealt with in a Swedish context. The social media culture is totally different, as well as the mechanics of political and social media interaction. Despite knowing the language and context of Swedish politics, I had no way of understanding the mechanisms of how social media are used in a Swedish context. Giving a global outlook, I got the impression that portraying realities of politics-social media interaction internationally - in striking accordance with the political landscape in countries concerned - was received almost as cynical by parts of the audience. But hey, this is normal. If the security services in e.g. Uzbekistan boil political dissidents alive, then it is destined to leave an imprint on politics and the social media landscape in that country. This is not acting the devil's advocate. It is addressing the issues at hand without either malice or idealism.</div></div><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">A paradox is perhaps that I felt I had a lot more in common in terms of social media with the conference keynote speaker, <a href="http://www.americanprogress.org/experts/RosenblattAlan.html">Alan Rosenblatt</a> of the <em><a href="http://www.americanprogress.org/">Center for American Progress</a></em>, than I had with my fellow countrymen, of whom I had known several for decades. A relevant question is, of course, if lessons learnt from a US context are applicable to that of another country or culture. This is usually not a problem, but the mere dynamics of social media and consequent development causes difficulties when regarding both politics and social media, because they evolve interactively and must therefore by nature be different to each particular context. Or else they would be to no use. Besides the cultural caveat, disabling copycat application of social media in political campaigning, there is also the issue of repetition. Techniques are largely applicable only to limited scopes and spans of political action, as social media as a means of communication is dynamic and <em>sui generis</em>. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: justify;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_BuETdp3-G5-_V4UX1INQe6ec1tkazyI2y3fQwT4y2L7QFDxt5kqIssbUhzTennDz6zOVMZbROB3u1cD5cVZy8kdhpPbREMXlua7kqdfJIOgyEM9s19K9LCUIfOu8E_d7SnfC/s1600-h/kommunikasjon508.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; cssfloat: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_BuETdp3-G5-_V4UX1INQe6ec1tkazyI2y3fQwT4y2L7QFDxt5kqIssbUhzTennDz6zOVMZbROB3u1cD5cVZy8kdhpPbREMXlua7kqdfJIOgyEM9s19K9LCUIfOu8E_d7SnfC/s200/kommunikasjon508.jpg" vr="true" /></a>For me, web activism and the use of social media is still a matter of simple political logics. You have a political content and then you use social media as an instrument for interaction and exchange of ideas with an open mind and willingness to argue your case. What struck me as odd was however that despite knowing the particular "language" or context, the social media culture was so different from the one I am used to relating to, that I had difficulties understanding how Swedish political activists could have any use of them in campaigning or communication. Still, that is hardly for me to say, as my main point is a lack of understanding, of course, provided I do not do that too well, which I lay no claim to.<br />
<br />
One great exception to the lack of <em>lingua franca</em> was the <em>enfant terrible </em>of the show, <em><a href="http://www.piratpartiet.se/">Pirate Party</a></em> leader <a href="http://rickfalkvinge.se/">Rickard Falkvinge</a>. Using social media in political communication seemed as natural to him as it is to me. So, are Swedish politicians losing out on something important here? Possibly, but not necessarily. It all depends on what kind of political and party culture that exists. If you have an open mind and are ready for equally open-ended communication, then social media might become an invaluable instrument of mutual communication between people and candidates during political campaigning. If so is not the case, it may well be both money down the drain, and serve as a political liability, as not knowing how to use social media may well expose greater flaws of your policy.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">All in all, it was a very worthwhile experience to attend the <em>Fokus</em> seminar, as it raised my awareness to matters that should really be self-evident, but I have previously not been wholly aware of. I also got an oppportunity for self-reflection and a portion of humility, which will be very useful when reflected against a more international social media context. Last but not least, it was great meeting so many bright and initiated people, who did not think of matters the way I did, thus providing an element of intellectual enrichment. However, judging from my impressions of the seminar, the one advice I might venture to give Swedish politicians as for social media is to either go full in if you have a massive message to convey, or else keep it on a low or moderate scale in proportion to what party culture, <em>modus </em>operandi, and campaign programme may allow. Or else you may be in for a lot of unwarranted trouble. After all, building a Babylonic tower needs finding a language in common even if you speak in different tongues. That is perhaps the greatest challenge for political establishment to overcome.</div></div><div class="blogger-post-footer">Politics and security in Russia, Central and Eastern Europe, and Central Asia</div>Vilhelm Konnanderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09167606906861836286noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19791491.post-39262819418240200672009-10-16T22:03:00.000+02:002009-10-19T23:29:39.929+02:00Baku Blues<div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: justify;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyyXCNxeXbhRvl5ZlQu_MPVzDK9mlmV66rqDGmjGql1VfZlsJEhND1WluUUzsGZ_mHZB3dANvtYsUz83kpagGk_nAYikOWs88bqNHWkCJzaLx86-X4TzQxt3ICinbcXYbiQBJR/s1600-h/764767CE-7F79-4F19-B0C7-F9BFE4DF4EDC_mw800_mh600.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; cssfloat: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyyXCNxeXbhRvl5ZlQu_MPVzDK9mlmV66rqDGmjGql1VfZlsJEhND1WluUUzsGZ_mHZB3dANvtYsUz83kpagGk_nAYikOWs88bqNHWkCJzaLx86-X4TzQxt3ICinbcXYbiQBJR/s200/764767CE-7F79-4F19-B0C7-F9BFE4DF4EDC_mw800_mh600.jpg" vr="true" /></a><br />
</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: justify;"><strong>"<a href="http://blog.novruzov.az/2009/05/clearly-progress.html">Shut up! Parliament is not for debate!</a>" Make no mistake: These are the words of authoritarian statehood, words of utter arrogance to an open society of freedom and democracy. These are no heady opinions fired off in the heat of debate. They are the words of a speaker of parliament - the key guardian to freedom of speech in any nation that lays claim to democracy. The country is Azerbaijan, the situation a travesty of all values dear to the Western world.</strong><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Some 100 days have passed since Adnan Hajizade and Emin Milli were arrested by police in an apparent case of regime provocation. Their true crime was exercising their constitutional right to freedom of expression and conscience, with social media and the web as their venue. Freedom for freedom - its exercise in exchange for its loss - was the price the two young bloggers and student activists had to pay for something taken for granted as norms of civilized society. Despite fraudulent and fabricated criminal allegations, their true "crime" was making fun of realities known to all but raised by few. Did they speak the unspeakable, call for chaos and upheaval? No, Hajizade and Milli simply posted a parody of politics on the web, coming too close to realities of government in current Azerbaijan: A video of a mock press conference with a donkey commenting on the country's repressive NGO-legislation.<br />
<br />
</div><div style="text-align: center;"><object height="344" width="425"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/Aaecvg7xCIk&color1=0xb1b1b1&color2=0xcfcfcf&feature=player_embedded&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowScriptAccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/Aaecvg7xCIk&color1=0xb1b1b1&color2=0xcfcfcf&feature=player_embedded&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" allowScriptAccess="always" width="425" height="344"></embed></object><br />
</div><div style="text-align: center;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">However, comedy turned tragedy, as government decided to set an example to deter others from even the most harmless forms of regime critique. With a unique display of foolhardedness, the Azeri police and legislature staged a travesty of justice, by prosecuting Hajizade and Milli for a crime they had been victims of, adding allegation to allegation, charge to charge. In the dark gulfs of government conscience, fears inspired by the role of social media during the green revolution in nearby Iran, may have been one reason why Azeri officials all of a sudden reacted so sternly against the bloggers. Any more concrete reasons are obscure, but for the normal workings of an authoritarian system.<br />
</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: left;">In its 2009 "<a href="http://www.freedomhouse.org/template.cfm?page=22&year=2009&country=7560">Freedom in the World</a>" report, <em><a href="http://www.freedomhouse.org/">Freedom House</a></em> ranks Azerbaijan as "not free" and provides the following analysis on the development up till 2008:<br />
</div><blockquote><div style="text-align: justify;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZs8zbtHOsuSyaaTBtyBJaeAsFCccLxvlGNnoME2sJBmHd485qsZdnkgAXNHq7Blw3-n8tgRSF5ajymcxCeCf2bDsXZM9v1YOqBDAptYtKXUvmVwATGMwFVehXAeUSH0rF7gaT/s1600-h/freedom_house.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; cssfloat: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZs8zbtHOsuSyaaTBtyBJaeAsFCccLxvlGNnoME2sJBmHd485qsZdnkgAXNHq7Blw3-n8tgRSF5ajymcxCeCf2bDsXZM9v1YOqBDAptYtKXUvmVwATGMwFVehXAeUSH0rF7gaT/s200/freedom_house.jpg" vr="true" /></a><br />
</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">Azerbaijan received a downward trend arrow due to the increasing monopolization of power by President Ilham Aliyev and the ruling Yeni Azerbaijan Party, as reflected in a flawed presidential election in October and measures to eliminate presidential term limits. [---] President Ilham Aliyev and the ruling Yeni Azerbaijan Party further marginalized the political opposition and other institutions of democratic accountability in 2008. The government’s fierce suppression of media freedom was integral to Aliyev’s victory in a controlled presidential election in October. In December, the parliament approved a constitutional change that would eliminate presidential term limits, clearing the way for a referendum on the issue. Meanwhile, the country’s energy wealth continued to swell state coffers, stunting other sectors of the economy and permitting the government to postpone meaningful institutional reforms.<br />
</div></div></blockquote><div style="text-align: left;"><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">In its 2008 "<a href="http://www.rsf.org/en-rapport91-Azerbaijan.html">Press Freedom Barometer</a>" <em><a href="http://www.rsf.org/">Reporters Without Borders</a></em> ranks Azerbaijan as number 150 out of 173 countries worldwide, and points to the "difficult situation" of media in the country:<br />
</div></div><blockquote><div style="text-align: justify;"><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBYzJo7GVaBazuYZawLkmCYaPGJoNv5S391K1G1Z2ei9DYM4f8OzvHUjUHfWuRKQrp_H24LOrf7Rat1dvUxq9b7YR1VYrgdGUNaXXa1C7UWBafWN76n1EA-Wh3K0kt8hoE-45f/s1600-h/logo_rsf.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; cssfloat: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBYzJo7GVaBazuYZawLkmCYaPGJoNv5S391K1G1Z2ei9DYM4f8OzvHUjUHfWuRKQrp_H24LOrf7Rat1dvUxq9b7YR1VYrgdGUNaXXa1C7UWBafWN76n1EA-Wh3K0kt8hoE-45f/s200/logo_rsf.png" vr="true" /></a>Ilham Aliyev’s relations with the very few independent media in Azerbaijan are tinged with authoritarianism and terror. Journalists who dare to speak out about the evils of the regime including corruption and high unemployment expose themselves to real danger. [---] And exposing crime in the country can be as dangerous as exposing corruption. [---] Several journalists are currently in prison in the country. [---] This hounding of the press also extends beyond the country’s borders as far as foreign media. [---] The BBC, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and Voice of America can no longer be picked up [in] Azerbaijan. There is a lack of pluralism in the country’s media landscape. Energy policy has taken precedence over democratisation as Aliyev prefers to boast of his country’s oil and gas riches. Moreover the president secured the constitutional right in a March 2009 referendum to unlimited runs at the presidency.<br />
</div></div></blockquote><div style="text-align: justify;"><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0yP5uDHM9GutQWyB2zu_cIEcq6pAHDU36fijSwh_U_sFB__7Rv8A2JzyooKIMJIZGB62NPnBpN6DEAnlsXPnytMfnpgwotsc0Z9foWSfVEPkKjdIhcfEfWyWRuHKnqD5xIJty/s1600-h/IlhamAliyev3.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; cssfloat: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0yP5uDHM9GutQWyB2zu_cIEcq6pAHDU36fijSwh_U_sFB__7Rv8A2JzyooKIMJIZGB62NPnBpN6DEAnlsXPnytMfnpgwotsc0Z9foWSfVEPkKjdIhcfEfWyWRuHKnqD5xIJty/s200/IlhamAliyev3.jpg" vr="true" /></a>One may easily conjure up predisposed images of Oriental despotism - of "East is East, and West is West, and never the twain shall meet", but reality is starker than cultural prejudice. A country couched at the shores of the Caspian, Azerbaijan with its cosmopolitan metropolis Baku, has always been at the crossroads of cultures, trade and human encounters - whether conflict or cooperation. After soviet demise, Baku has looked westward, profited from its oil resources, and been embraced by the West, if for no other reasons than its still large energy reserves. Western sponsorship is however not unconditional. Despite projects such as the BTC oil pipeline and plans for the Nabucco gas pipeline, there is a limit to European and US indulgence with human rights' violations, which no dependency on oil may compensate for. Patience and tolerance is one thing, but even the greatest realist would realize that this kind of negative domestic developments eventually may amplify tendencies towards the entire region turning completely into a geopolitical and geoeconomic hotchpotch. That even the usually so market-conscious BP has reacted against the jailing of Hajizade and Milli shows that there is no turning a blind eye to Azeri human rights' violations anymore, especially if put in a larger context.<br />
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</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_dyyWXDpZ_dRsTQkdydn09SAffzjq4UTBVn916IBTScL-c23Z93an1-BHcdxCJvEKpaqkJZloAElm0rhanZBRZCuypeOGUrAjURrnJY9bsv-eW6gh_NQ5ZBVpii_vZsVR2Kpx/s1600-h/BakuBaySunSet.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; cssfloat: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_dyyWXDpZ_dRsTQkdydn09SAffzjq4UTBVn916IBTScL-c23Z93an1-BHcdxCJvEKpaqkJZloAElm0rhanZBRZCuypeOGUrAjURrnJY9bsv-eW6gh_NQ5ZBVpii_vZsVR2Kpx/s200/BakuBaySunSet.jpg" vr="true" /></a>As the sun sets over the capital on the Caspian, the dusk of democratic disability descends on the people of Azerbaijan. Adnan Hajizade and Emin Milli have now been jailed for a hundred days. It is a hundred days too many. Enough is enough. Free Adnan and Emin!<br />
</div></div><div class="blogger-post-footer">Politics and security in Russia, Central and Eastern Europe, and Central Asia</div>Vilhelm Konnanderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09167606906861836286noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19791491.post-82181958737850386472009-10-15T22:23:00.003+02:002009-10-18T12:13:59.056+02:00Direct democracy or digital mob?<div align="justify"><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnMuYiPHFOKBstMV3kLj_ItnlkdVSZ5qw7Nz0y3xRTq0mcl6vDAJbMxb0UlcSMcUrYiAWHz9KIRDjN4TaHfcsTsYDOlNOiKAZ1oHBtS2JWsBLbTh0XOT4aJu5wDowuh2ocGFce/s1600-h/recycling.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; cssfloat: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnMuYiPHFOKBstMV3kLj_ItnlkdVSZ5qw7Nz0y3xRTq0mcl6vDAJbMxb0UlcSMcUrYiAWHz9KIRDjN4TaHfcsTsYDOlNOiKAZ1oHBtS2JWsBLbTh0XOT4aJu5wDowuh2ocGFce/s200/recycling.jpg" vr="true" /></a><strong>A spectre is haunting Eurasia - the spectre of activism. As cyberage sets in, the mentality of old Eurasia grapples to grasp the power of the people when politics enters a new age and arena. Is this truly the case or are we but suffering from the same delusions as we tend to when lured by novelties, choosing the complex over simplicity, iPhone and 3G over pencil and paper?</strong><br />
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<div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">Paraphrasing the 1848 Communist Manifesto may seem out of place addressing the dramatic changes that our Eurasian continent has undergone over the last decades. In essence though, it illustrates the difficulties of the old political and economic establishment to come to terms with new rules of the game, where citizens enjoy and use ever expanding tools of empowerment, where the Great Communicator is not necessarily the President, but the People. It is a transformation from "we are the people" to "who are the people?". <br />
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</div><div align="justify" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">What this people is, still remains to be determined. Is it a <em>demos </em>- people - without <em>krateion</em> - rule?<em> </em>An unruly crowd with its own heterogeneous interests that only seldom forms into a concrete political agenda, but still looms large influencing and potentially discapacitating policy goals and implementation of elected officials? Is it an anonymous and shrouded rule that manages both people and politicians with no saying who is in charge?<br />
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</div><div align="justify" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgiMqRGel_P8yKAHUqGwH0tAl9__fVj2AMV7P78yam-NGz65JK1FUCSjoKdW15K_APNjhmC4WeYOddxhUcJe-g1eRvgHnDKsJvhoD08ypblma24Jl2-MRS3OLKhKUeL7aKWhZA1/s1600-h/543D971C-4BC9-448D-97E4-C4EB83B1109F_mw800_s.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; cssfloat: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgiMqRGel_P8yKAHUqGwH0tAl9__fVj2AMV7P78yam-NGz65JK1FUCSjoKdW15K_APNjhmC4WeYOddxhUcJe-g1eRvgHnDKsJvhoD08ypblma24Jl2-MRS3OLKhKUeL7aKWhZA1/s200/543D971C-4BC9-448D-97E4-C4EB83B1109F_mw800_s.jpg" vr="true" /></a><em><a href="http://www.aeinstein.org/organizations103a.html">198 methods of nonviolent action</a></em> is a "dummies' guide to revolution," applied to all popular uprisings forming a tattered trace of coloured revolutions in Eastern Europe over the last decade: Slovakia, Croatia, Serbia, Georgia, Ukraine... Today, such approaches for achieving peaceful change are so integrated in our mindset of popular action, that we seldom stop to reflect upon if they are righteous or represent the will of the people. Furthermore, the very same mechanisms have found their way into Internet activism, as <em>Gandhi goes web 2.0</em>, as the Mandelas and Sakharovs of our age increasingly turn up from out of cyberspace.<br />
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</div><div align="justify" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">We take these thruths to be self-evident and hail the principles and mechanisms of coloured revolution as singularly in the service of democracy. However, if we think <em>revolution</em>, we must also think <em>reaction</em>. Confronted by external change, Russia by no means was or could be ignorant of this, as stability was the name of the game both to preserve power and protect people from a return to the upheavals and chaos of the 1990s. <em>Nashi</em> became the recipe for reaction, to support and not subvert an authoritarian regime. As also Gargantua went web 2.0, we witnessed cyberwars waged against Estonia in 2007 and Georgia in 2008. This Russian experiment has now come to an end, and <em>Nashi</em> put in mothballs, as Kremlin seeks new venues of state-directed instead of state-inspired web activism.<br />
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</div><div align="justify" class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5sm9dZhAArBiW8GvrQcNHjfN9bZdzcDU9THLTBmYSe102tEuKrTafYwBrzOcNOZCzOHBS4ROL7HXHJuwamZTYLumhX8znEjszP0H6JAti2Vvpm8OcPRZCYTolx4WFGoxxBbOK/s1600-h/svnashi_narrowweb__300x4490.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; cssfloat: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5sm9dZhAArBiW8GvrQcNHjfN9bZdzcDU9THLTBmYSe102tEuKrTafYwBrzOcNOZCzOHBS4ROL7HXHJuwamZTYLumhX8znEjszP0H6JAti2Vvpm8OcPRZCYTolx4WFGoxxBbOK/s200/svnashi_narrowweb__300x4490.jpg" vr="true" /></a><br />
</div><div align="justify" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">Why? What have the Russians realized that the west fails to understand? The answer may be the difficulty of controlling <em>the digital mob</em>. As each and everyone can turn a cyberwarrior or warmonger on one's own, such spontaneity is destined to conflict with the interests of authoritarian government. Directing the webcrowds in the spirit of <a href="http://etext.virginia.edu/toc/modeng/public/BonCrow.html">Gustave Le Bon</a> has proven an overwhelming task in the 21st century, as rulers realize the risk of spiralling into new nights of broken glass. Whereas methods may work in concrete operative and tactical contexts - by blogs, twitter, and other social media - it has proven much more complex and difficult to achieve any strategic and tenuous goals.<br />
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</div><div align="justify" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">The Georgian example also illustrates a paradox if regarded from the perspective of information operations, viz. info warfare. Whereas aerial superiority is deemed the key to victory in modern warfare, the winner may quickly turn loser in the information battlefield. The cyberattacks on Georgia in 2008 gave Russia near total dominance in the information field. However, it also raised the temperature of the Russian information flow for it to boil over into increasingly unreasonable and uncorroborated accusations of Georgian war crimes and even genocide on South Ossetians. In one blow, Russia lost its credibility. At the same time, it gave the Georgian government an information monopoly to send its message, its truth, and its propaganda, as most alternative information sources had been taken out. The exception was bloggers, acting eyewitnesses directly from the hotbeds of battle.<br />
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</div><div align="justify" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">So, have all the powers of old media and politics entered into a holy alliance to exorcise this spectre? Realising its potential, will social media be seen as a friend or foe by forces of traditional society? What it takes to turn the tide and surf the waves of Internet activism is a combination of factors: Understanding of areas, countries, or regions of concern with comprehension of mechanisms such as <em>Gandhi goes web 2.0</em> and the <em>digital mob</em>. A growing but still too small number of journalists and politicians are getting the message and have started developing such competence, but in the heat of battle, during drastic developments, the question is if this competence may be applied to account for what goes on in the online political arena - with direct or indirect influence on the flow of events - and act or report accordingly.<br />
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</div><div align="justify" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">As trivial a statement as it may seem, the Internet is what you make of it. Friend or foe dichotomies lead nowhere, and seeing Internet as a threat by repetitious rantings about cybercrime and pornography degrade the very thought of human interaction - whether on the web or in real life. Statements saying <a href="http://www.itu.int/ITU-D/cyb/newslog/Cybercrime+Now+Worth+105+Billion+Bypasses+Drug+Trade.aspx">cybercrime exceeds international drugs' trade</a>, or that a majority of Internet usage relates to pornography (<a href="http://internet-filter-review.toptenreviews.com/internet-pornography-statistics.html">in reality 10-25%</a>), just bring out hysteria about something that for most people has no connection whatsoever to either crime or sex, but for whom interaction by social media has become a part of everyday life, including the potential to actively influence one's life and society by the use of the web.<br />
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</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqm86q8VcFOafnDUNC98FCwJ2StIA45Paso0vTah3Avtbku6JfwYUI8IA8wVoPpdA7JRXGqfduh1RkP4Zr6NbO2DlTAH8MIs0YqX3EuLQ336d7x8RCWWYjd0xIXMNIPO409Gzm/s1600-h/coverpic7376.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; cssfloat: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqm86q8VcFOafnDUNC98FCwJ2StIA45Paso0vTah3Avtbku6JfwYUI8IA8wVoPpdA7JRXGqfduh1RkP4Zr6NbO2DlTAH8MIs0YqX3EuLQ336d7x8RCWWYjd0xIXMNIPO409Gzm/s200/coverpic7376.gif" vr="true" /></a><br />
</div><div align="justify" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">For people, raising their voices and exerting influence, is not essentially a matter of being online or not. It is true, that social media facilitate social and political interaction, when applied to that purpose. Still, it is the same logics and tactics that are seen IRL political and societal interaction. Age-old methods of political action - whether Gandhi's application of <em>ahimsa </em>to non-violent change or Hitlerite seduction of the crowd inspired by Le Bon - are as integrated into web activism as they are into general political action. The choice - as always with phenomena rightly or wrongly deemed as new - stands between embracing or vilifying web activism. Is standing apart, studiously neutral, the road ahead when cyberspace - for good or evil - becomes but another arena for government of the people, by the people, for the people? Is it a choice between greater direct democracy or the digital mob, or will we simply have to live with both?<br />
</div><div class="blogger-post-footer">Politics and security in Russia, Central and Eastern Europe, and Central Asia</div>Vilhelm Konnanderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09167606906861836286noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19791491.post-7288434445070742862009-07-19T14:53:00.071+02:002009-07-20T17:56:33.136+02:00Medvedev Murder Mystery<div align="justify"><strong><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPUr-n2Z-U-papD2sH8pU4zVpxnbzIAuTI3Z_KaJr5J9IPPCeTg-zZxOUgBVDFFZZLpWBF7Z_B-KxIEgHImQYrZRzMG16KsB2Y_TrtfSL6sypI019UPJG056ybJYYUcYuCrida/s1600-h/img164450.jpg"><img style="MARGIN: 0px 0px 10px 10px; WIDTH: 75px; FLOAT: right; HEIGHT: 75px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5360299331026511330" border="0" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPUr-n2Z-U-papD2sH8pU4zVpxnbzIAuTI3Z_KaJr5J9IPPCeTg-zZxOUgBVDFFZZLpWBF7Z_B-KxIEgHImQYrZRzMG16KsB2Y_TrtfSL6sypI019UPJG056ybJYYUcYuCrida/s400/img164450.jpg" /></a><em><span style="color:#99ff99;">For </span><a href="http://globalvoicesonline.org/2009/07/19/russia-medvedev-murder-mystery/"><span style="color:#99ff99;">Global Voices Online</span></a><span style="color:#99ff99;">:</span></em> Anna Politkovskaya... The mere name evokes images of Moscow's worst public relations nightmare in years - an ongoing ordeal for Russia's international reputation in the realm of rule of law. Still, the murderers have not been brought to justice, and Politkovskaya turned into a martyr for world voices critical of Russia - for them epitomising everything that is wrong and wretched with the country. So, should President Medvedev's quick reaction to this week's murder of Human Rights' acitivists Natalya Estemirova merely be regarded as lessons learnt from the Politkovskaya assassination? The answer might be more complicated, as voices from the Russian blogosphere have their say.</strong><br /><br />As news broke of Wednesday's murder of Russian Human Rights's activist Natalya Estemirova, it did not take long for President Dmitry <a href="http://www.kremlin.ru/sdocs/news.shtml?day=15&month=07&year=2009&value_from=&value_to=&date=&stype=&dayRequired=no&day_enable=true&Submit.x=2&Submit.y=10">Medvedev to offer his condolences to her family and appoint a committee to investigate</a> a crime widely covered by international media. But was this merely a reaction to avoid repetition of the Politkovskaya PR-fiasco? In the domestic media arena, there was no comparison in coverage, provoking anger, resignation, and accusations of hypocrisy among Russia's liberal bloggers. However, looking at the wider picture, others see the Estemirova case as yet another herald of troubles ahead for the Putin-Medvedev <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Putinism#Opinion:_Medvedev_and_Putin_share_the_power">tandemocracy</a>, and believe that Medvedev reacted to the murder out of honest concern and worry.</div><p align="center"><a href="http://globalvoicesonline.org/2009/07/19/russia-medvedev-murder-mystery/img103169/" rel="attachment wp-att-86238"><strong><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-86238" title="Putin-Medvedev" alt="Putin-Medvedev" src="http://globalvoicesonline.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/img103169.jpg" width="350" height="234" /></strong></a></p><div align="justify">The first, and obvious, question for all touched by the murder of one of Russia's foremost human rights' defenders is: <em>Who could commit such a heineous act? </em><br /><br />Fingers have been pointed at both Putin and Kadyrov, resulting in the Chechen President <a href="http://globalvoicesonline.org/2009/07/19/russia-did-kadyrov-kill-estemirova/">threatening to sue</a> Estemirova's organization, <em><a href="http://www.memo.ru/">Memorial</a></em>, for libel. Still, the question remains, who were the murderers, and who stood behind them?<br /><br />LJ user <em>Andrei Naliotov</em> <a href="http://community.livejournal.com/ru_politics/22831469.html">is wondrous about</a> [RUS] the character of the murderer, as opposed to that of Estemirova:</div><blockquote><p align="justify">I cannot understand what kind of person one has to be, to shoot at a doctor, hurrying to save the sick or the wounded, at a priest praying to save souls, at a human rights defender, pulling people out of misery? I knew Natalya Estemirova. When I first spoke to her, I was surprised by her courage: To challenge power in today's totalitarian Chechnya, doing so living in Grozny - takes the highest of courage. But to stand on the side of truth and save people was superior to all for her. "No village without one righteous." Natalya was the righteous of Chechnya. Let her memory live eternally.</p></blockquote><div align="justify">Whereas Medvedev's statement on the murder, may have averted international repercussions, reactions in Russian media were sparse, and LJ user <em>tupikin</em> <a href="http://tupikin.livejournal.com/411080.html">accounts for</a> [RUS] his own feelings and others' neglect to cover the issue: </div><blockquote>Almost the entire day was spent in a realm of black colour. At first, the press conference about yesterday's kidnapping and murder of Grozny Human Rights defender Natalya Estemirova (judging from comments on <a href="http://tupikin.livejournal.com/410574.html">my post</a> - a single one - one might think that it is only of interest for anti-Kremlin websites, whereas none of my best friends showed any interest whatsoever). Tell me, honestly, do you think that Human Rights' defenders are crazy? Or rather, predestined to die? OK, the press conference gathered 60 journalists, including ten TV-cameras. When Ludmila Alexeyeva, chairman of the Moscow Helsinki group, asked national [i.e. Russian] journalists to raise their hands, it turned out to be no more than 15 people. The news, which has circled world media, is received, here in our country, with amazing stoicism, as if that simply is the way it has to be. Really, not 60, but 160 journalists should have come... Well, that is not some other country, but it is all ours. [---] and then Ludmila Alexeyeva added that two people were guilty - Ramzan Kadyrov and Vladimir Putin. [---] I don't know whether the tacit readers of my LiveJournal understand, that this is a sensation of all-Russian proportions [---] that two of the most high-ranking state officials in Russia were named as accomplices to a political murder in front of TV-cameras and tens of journalists. The ground did not shake, only silence followed. As I wrote these words on the keyboard of my old notebook, it was as if the finger-touches forming letters were like the strikes from the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tsar_Bell">Tsar Bell</a>...</blockquote><p align="center"><a href="http://globalvoicesonline.org/2009/07/19/russia-medvedev-murder-mystery/img76242/" rel="attachment wp-att-86237"><strong><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-86237" title="Medvedev-Kadyrov" alt="Medvedev-Kadyrov" src="http://globalvoicesonline.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/img76242.jpg" width="350" height="234" /></strong></a></p><div align="justify">Turning to the political ramifications of the murder, there are bloggers who underline how problematic and untimely the Estemirova case is for Medvedev, possibly adding to an alleged domestic political campaign to undermine the president's power and legitimacy. Consequently, LJ user <em>anaitiss</em> <a href="http://anaitiss.livejournal.com/606293.html">writes</a> [RUS]:</div><blockquote><p align="justify">It is the second political murder during Medvedev's presidential term. What's more, straight after Obama's visit. Moreover, just as the provocation with "the drunk Medvedev" at the G8 [summit] failed. And then, if we are to be honest, in a region where the guilty are nowhere to be found, even if we all know who everyone is thinking of. And also, exactly when America, personified by Obama, has deserted the local revolutionaries (<a href="http://wyborcza.pl/1,86871,6826295,Central_European_Leaders_Call_Obama_Not_to_Check_Region.html">they even write about this themselves</a>). And boy, how they were abandoned! And this, having formed the joint McFaul-Surkov commission [US-Russian working group on human rights]. They simply have to portray Medvedev as "a bloody tyrant, trampling justice", they really have to. To make matters such, that any dialogue between ourselves and the West becomes impossible. "The second Politkovskaya" is an ideal scenario, one must admit that much. And moreover, in the Caucasus.</p></blockquote><div align="justify">Human Rights and the disrespect for law is a matter of great concern for the Russian president - a lawyer by profession. With little over a year in office, turning the tide on rule of law seems a precondition for Medvedev to efficiently exercise power at a time when Russia experiences an economic downturn not seen since the 1998 financial crisis. Although trusitic, it suffices to point out that Putin back in 2001 - a year and a half into his first presidential term - was not the uncontested source of power and authority that marked the last years of his reign. So, that could barely be expected from Medvedev. At a recent discussion on the rule of law and Human Rights, <a href="http://blog.kremlin.ru/post/19/transcript">published on his blog</a> [RUS], Medvedev characterised the problem of Russian lawlessness accordingly: </div><blockquote><p align="justify">MEDVEDEV: You were speaking about massive lawlessness. As a matter of fact, we live in a country with a very complicated relationship to law [---] and a very relaxed and tolerant [attitude] to lawlessness. But it is not a secret that one has to be able to fight for justice. We have no culture of fighting for justice, we simply don't. [---] How do we handle this? At first, we turn to some bureaucrat - once, twice, and still no result whatsoever. Then we turn to the media, as an alternative source of power, but if there is no result, to whom do we write letters?<br />REPLY: To you.<br />MEDVEDEV: To me. That is totally correct. So that is the hierarchy for defending human rights.<br />REPLY: Then one turns to Strasbourg [the European Court of Human Rights].</p></blockquote><div align="justify">The last remark is illustrative of Medvedev's dilemma, when confronted with Estemirova's murder, and the general lawlessness of current Russia. In matters of human rights and the rule of law, the President of the Russian Federation appears not to be the supreme authority and guarantor of the constitution. It is to Strasbourg the Russian citizens turn as a last resort when their own judicial system fails to deliver on their constitutional rights.<br /><br />Consequently, reinstating law and order stands out as a crucial credibility issue for Medvedev, and moreover as a make or break for his own capacity to exercise the power invested in him. Judging from Medvedev's views, and those of some bloggers, the law is also one of the major problems of today's Russia, as it touches the very fine line of political statecraft - the balance-act between continuity and change, stability and progress. Whereas the murder may not be a mystery to most, for Medvedev it is a mystery how to solve it, as part and parcel of general Russian disrespect for law.</div><div class="blogger-post-footer">Politics and security in Russia, Central and Eastern Europe, and Central Asia</div>Vilhelm Konnanderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09167606906861836286noreply@blogger.com1